CC-3 CupGPA_MarketStudy_Final_02-13-2014
T DEMAND A
Market Study
Final Draft | February 13, 2014
Prepared by:
bae urban economics
GENERAL PLAN AMENDMENT – MARKET STUDY
Table of Contents
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY................................................................................................1
INTRODUCTION........................................................................................................11
General Plan Amendment Major Mixed-use Corridors....................................................11
Implications for the General Plan Amendment................................................................13
DEMOGRAPHIC TRENDS..........................................................................................14
Population and Household Trends....................................................................................14
Household Composition.....................................................................................................15
Age Distribution..................................................................................................................16
Ethnicity................................................................................................................................17
Household Income Distribution.........................................................................................19
Educational Attainment......................................................................................................19
Schools.................................................................................................................................20
Resident Occupation and Employment............................................................................21
Commute Flow....................................................................................................................22
Implications for General Plan Amendment.......................................................................23
EMPLOYMENT TRENDS............................................................................................24
Major Employers.................................................................................................................24
Jobs by Occupation and Industry......................................................................................25
Worker Age Distribution.....................................................................................................27
Worker Income....................................................................................................................28
Worker Ethnicity..................................................................................................................29
Implications for General Plan Amendment.......................................................................29
RETAIL SALES AND LEAKAGE ANALYSIS................................................................31
Estimated Retail Sales in Cupertino and the RTA by Major Retail Category.................33
Trends in Retail Sales..........................................................................................................36
Leakage Analysis.................................................................................................................40
REAL ESTATE MARKET TRENDS...............................................................................54
Residential Market...............................................................................................................54
GENERAL PLAN AMENDMENT – MARKET STUDY
Office Real Estate Market Overview..................................................................................62
Retail Real Estate Market Overview...................................................................................69
Hotel Market Overview.......................................................................................................73
POTENTIAL MARKET SUPPORT FOR NEW DEVELOPMENT...................................78
Population, Household and Employment Projections.....................................................78
Housing Demand................................................................................................................79
Office Demand....................................................................................................................81
Retail Demand.....................................................................................................................85
Hotel Demand.....................................................................................................................90
Summary of Demand Estimates.........................................................................................92
APPENDIX A: ZIP CODES IN THE RETAIL TRADE AREA..........................................93
APPENDIX B: RETAIL SALES TRENDS.......................................................................94
APPENDIX C: LEAKAGE ANALYSIS DETAIL...........................................................101
APPENDIX D: NOTES ON METHODOLOGY FOR RETAIL SALES AND LEAKAGE
ESTIMATES..............................................................................................................103
APPENDIX E: WORKER SPENDING CLOSE TO PLACE OF WORK........................104
APPENDIX F: NET RETAIL EXPENDITURES NEAR WORK FOR CUPERTINO
WORKERS................................................................................................................106
APPENDIX G: CURRENTLY LEASING PROPERTIES................................................107
APPENDIX H: PLANNED AND PROPOSED DEVELOPMENT IN CUPERTINO.......114
GENERAL PLAN AMENDMENT – MARKET STUDY
Table of Tables
Table 1: Population and Household Trends, 2000-2010.....................................................15
Table 2: Household Composition, 2000-2010 ......................................................................16
Table 3: Ethnicity, 2000-2010.................................................................................................18
Table 4: Household Income (a)..............................................................................................19
Table 5: Educational Attainment for Population 25+ Year of Age (a)................................20
Table 6: Employed Residents by Occupation and Industry (a)...........................................22
Table 7: Commute Flow (a)....................................................................................................23
Table 8: Principal Employers in Cupertino, 2012.................................................................25
Table 9: Occupation and Industry by Workplace Location (a)............................................26
Table 10: Employee Age Distribution (a)..............................................................................27
Table 11: Worker Earnings in the Past 12 Months (a)..........................................................28
Table 12: Worker Race and Ethnicity (a)...............................................................................29
Table 13: Total Estimated 2011 Retail Sales.........................................................................35
Table 14: Summary of Leakage Analysis...............................................................................42
Table 15: Detail on Motor Vehicle Sector Sales...................................................................49
Table 16: Detail on Furniture and Home Furnishings Store Sales......................................49
Table 17: Detail on Electronics and Appliances Store Sales...............................................49
Table 18: Detail on Building Materials Sector Sales............................................................50
Table 19: Detail on Food and Beverage Store Sales...........................................................50
Table 20: Detail on Health and Personal Care Store Sales.................................................51
Table 21: Detail on Clothing and Clothing Accessory Store Sales.....................................51
Table 22: Detail on Sporting Goods, Hobby, Book, and Music Store Sales......................52
Table 23: Detail on General Merchandise Store Sales........................................................52
Table 24: Detail on Miscellaneous Retail Store Sales..........................................................52
Table 25: Detail on Food Services and Drinking Places Sales............................................53
Table 26: Housing Units by Type of Structure (a).................................................................55
GENERAL PLAN AMENDMENT – MARKET STUDY
Table 27: Household Tenure, 2000-2010..............................................................................56
Table 28: Sale Price Distribution of Single-Family Residences and Condominiums by
Number of Bedrooms, March-August 2013 (a)....................................................................59
Table 30: Population, Household, and Employment Projections, 2010 & 2040................79
Table 31: Projected Housing Unit Growth, West Valley, 2010-2040...................................79
Table 32: Projected Housing Unit Demand, Cupertino, 2020-2035...................................80
Table 33: Annual Office Space Demand Based on Projected Employment, West Valley,
2010-2040................................................................................................................................82
Table 34: Corporate Campuses Recently Proposed by Silicon Valley Tech Companies..83
Table 35: Projected Office Demand, Cupertino, 2013-2035...............................................84
Table 36: Support from Existing Residents and Workers for Additional Retail Space in
Cupertino................................................................................................................................85
Table 37: Support from Growth in Population and Employment for Additional Retail Space
in Cupertino............................................................................................................................88
Table 38: Projected Lodging Demand, Cupertino..............................................................91
Table A-1: Zip Codes in the Retail Trade Area....................................................................93
Table B-1a: Cupertino Taxable Retail Sales Trends, 2000-2008.........................................95
Table B-1b: Cupertino Taxable Retail Sales Trends, 2009-2012.........................................96
Table B-2a: Santa Clara County Taxable Retail Sales Trends, 2000-2008..........................97
Table B-2b: Santa Clara County Taxable Retail Sales Trends, 2009-2011..........................98
Table B-3a: California Taxable Retail Sales Trends, 2000-2008..........................................99
Table B-3b: California Taxable Retail Sales Trends, 2009-2011........................................100
Table C-1: Leakage Analysis Detail.....................................................................................102
Table E-1: Worker Spending Close to Place of Work........................................................105
Table F-1: Net Retail Expenditures Near Work for Cupertino Workers...........................106
Table G-1: Currently Leasing Office Properties, Cupertino, June 2013...........................108
Table G-2: Currently Leasing Retail Properties, Cupertino, June 2013............................111
Table H-1: Planned and Proposed Development, Cupertino, May 2013.........................115
GENERAL PLAN AMENDMENT – MARKET STUDY
Table of Figures
Figure 1: General Plan Amendment Study Areas...............................................................12
Figure 2: Age Distribution, 2010...........................................................................................17
Figure 3: Cupertino and the Retail Trade Area....................................................................31
Figure 4: California Taxable Retail Sales Trends, 2000-2011...............................................37
Figure 5: Santa Clara County Taxable Retail Sales Trends, 2000-2011..............................38
Figure 6: Cupertino Taxable Retail Sales Trends, 2000-2012..............................................39
Figure 7: Cupertino Retail Sales Leakages by Major Retail Store Category......................45
Figure 8: RTA Retail Sales Leakages by Major Retail Store Category................................47
Figure 9: Residential Units Permitted, 2003-2012................................................................56
Figure 10: Residential Units Permitted by Building Type, 2003-2012.................................57
Figure 11: Median Home Sale Price, 2005-2012..................................................................58
Figure 12: Rental Stock by Number of Bedrooms, Second Quarter 2013 (a)....................60
Figure 13: Rental Rate Trends, 2005-2013 ............................................................................61
Figure 14: Vacancy Rate Trends, 2005-2013.........................................................................61
Figure 15: Office Inventory, 2003-2013.................................................................................64
Figure 16: Annual Net Office Absorption, Cupertino, 2003-2012......................................65
Figure 17: Annual Net Office Absorption, West Valley, 2003-2012....................................66
Figure 18: Class A Office Lease Rates, First Quarter 2003 to First Quarter 2013..............67
Figure 19: Office Vacancy Rates, First Quarter 2003 to First Quarter 2013........................67
Figure 20: Retail Inventory, 2006-2013 (Year to Date) (a).....................................................70
Figure 21: Net Annual Retail Absorption, Cupertino, 2006-2013.......................................71
Figure 22: Net Annual Retail Absorption, Santa Clara County, 2006-2013........................71
Figure 23: Retail Lease Rate Trends, 2006-2013...................................................................72
Figure 24: Retail Vacancy Trends, 2006-2013 .......................................................................73
Figure 25: Hotel Inventory, Cupertino, 2013 ........................................................................75
Figure 26: Occupancy by Day of Week, August 2012-July 2013.........................................76
Figure 27: Hotel Average Daily Rate and Occupancy Rate, 2007-2012..............................77
GENERAL PLAN AMENDMENT – MARKET STUDY
1
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Study Areas – Location and Description
The Cupertino General Plan Amendment (GPA) focuses on five corridors along Stevens Creek
Boulevard (Heart of the City Corridor), De Anza Boulevard (South De Anza and North De Anza
Corridor), Wolfe Road (North Wolfe Corridor), and Homestead Road (Homestead Corridor).
Each corridor is located east of Highway 85 in neighborhoods with existing commercial or office
development.
Most of the parcels within the five corridors are developed with existing uses, and as
a result, new development facilitated by the GPA would consist largely of either
redevelopment of existing buildings, selective demolition of existing structures and
replacement with new construction, or new infill development adjacent to existing
uses.
Overall, these corridors will be attractive opportunities for residential and
commercial renovation and new construction.
Demographic Trends
With a 2010 population of approximately 58,3001, Cupertino is a growing community with a
significant concentration of highly educated and high-income households attracted to the city
by its outstanding public schools and location in the heart of Silicon Valley. The city’s household
composition is weighted towards family households with children, with a lower percent of
households comprised of singles. As the city has grown, its ethnic mix has changed to where its
Asian population comprises approximately 63.1 percent of the population in 2010.
Cupertino has experienced modest growth, averaging 1.4 percent annually over the
past ten years. This is a more rapid growth rate than either Santa Clara County or
the Bay Area as a whole.
The city’s average household size in 2010 was 2.87, about the same as Santa Clara
County (2.90 persons per household) and higher than the Bay Area average (2.69
persons per household).
The larger average household size is driven by the higher percentage of households
with children under the age of 18. In Cupertino, 47.3 percent of households have
1 This study uses 2010 as the base year for comparisons and consistency with forecasts prepared by the
Association of Bay Area Governments; the 2012 U.S. Census population estimate for Cupertino is
approximately 60,000.
GENERAL PLAN AMENDMENT – MARKET STUDY
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children under the age of 18, compared to 38.4 percent of households in Santa Clara
County and only 33.4 percent of households in the Bay Area. Only 17.6 percent of
Cupertino households in 2010 were comprised of single adults compared to 21.8
percent for Santa Clara County and 26.1 percent for the Bay Area.
Between 2000 and 2010, the ethnic composition of Cupertino’s population has
changed significantly. The proportion of residents who are of Asian descent grew
from 44.3 percent to 63.1 percent of the city’s population, while the percent of non-
Hispanic white residents fell from 47.8 to 29.3 percent. The percent of population in
other ethnic categories such as African-American, Hispanic, and 2+ Races generally
remained stable.
Cupertino residents have high levels of educational attainment. Over 73 percent of
city residents over the age of 18 have a bachelor, graduate, or professional degree
compared to 46 percent in Santa Clara County, and 42 percent in the Bay Area.
Cupertino residents’ high level of educational attainment is correlated with a high
degree of professional occupations: 77 percent of employed city residents work in
management, business, science, or arts occupations, compared to 45 percent of Bay
Area residents.
Reflecting high education levels and professional occupations, Cupertino
households earn a significantly higher median household income ($123,700) than
Santa Clara County ($87,200), and the Bay Area ($75,800). This means Cupertino
households can support higher rents and home prices as well as higher levels of
discretionary retail spending.
Cupertino’s public schools are among the best in California, attracting families with
children to the city. All of the elementary and middle schools in the city achieved the
minimum California Academic Performance Index standard of 800 in 2012, and 22 of
Cupertino’s elementary and middle schools achieved over 900. All but one of the
high schools that serve the city also exceeded the minimum standard of 800 in 2012.
Enrollments have risen in Cupertino’s public schools even through new housing
development has been limited in recent years.
Overall, Cupertino’s strong demographics provide strong support for renovated or
new retail shopping facilities in the city.
Economic Trends
As the home of Apple Inc., Cupertino is dominated by the technology sector. The city
experiences a net daily inflow of approximately 26,700 workers to employment centers.
Cupertino’s strong economy supports demand for both office space and retail facilities.
As the city’s largest employer with over 13,000 employees, Apple Inc. impacts the
demand for office space in Cupertino through its own internal growth and
GENERAL PLAN AMENDMENT – MARKET STUDY
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acquisitions, attraction of firms doing business with Apple, and through spin-offs and
start-ups established by Apple Inc. employees.
While there are approximately 31,800 jobs in Cupertino, there are approximately
5,100 residents in the city who also work in Cupertino, indicating a net inflow of
approximately 26,700 workers into the community on weekdays. These workers
represent a segment of market demand for convenience retail expenditures.
61 percent of jobs in Cupertino are in occupations related to management, business,
science, and the arts, while approximately 20 percent of jobs in the city are in sales
and office occupations. Together, these two occupational categories account for
over 80 percent of jobs in Cupertino.
While Cupertino employment data shows that just under 29 percent of its jobs are
classified as being in the manufacturing sector, only four percent of occupations are
actually in production, transportation and material moving occupations. This reflects
Apple Inc. as a computer and mobile device manufacturing company with
headquarters and R&D activities in Cupertino, but with manufacturing activity
located outside the community.
As a result of the higher percentage of management, business, science, and arts
occupations, the median earnings of workers in Cupertino is $81,000, approximately
42 percent higher than the median earnings for workers overall in Santa Clara County
($57,000).
Cupertino’s work force is composed of a lower proportion of younger workers when
compared to Santa Clara County. Just 28 percent of Cupertino’s jobs are held by
workers under age 35, compared to 32 percent of all jobs in the county.
The ethnic profile of workers in Cupertino is different than the profile for the resident
population. While the resident population in the city is over 63 percent of Asian
ethnicities, just fewer than 35 percent of workers are of Asian ethnicities. Compared
to the city’s residential population, a larger percent of workers are of non-Hispanic
white and Hispanic or Latino race and ethnicity. This suggests that retail in Cupertino
must cater to a more diverse base of customers than reflected by the city resident
profile alone.
Overall, Cupertino has a highly compensated workforce that provides a strong base
of potential retail sales during the workday, although this is somewhat tempered by
onsite food service and other amenities offered by major employers such as Apple
Inc.
GENERAL PLAN AMENDMENT – MARKET STUDY
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Residential Market Assessment
Cupertino has a strong residential market due largely to the high quality of the local school
districts and the presence of Apple Inc. and other high-tech employers. Strong demand for
homes in Cupertino has created a housing market characterized by high home prices and rental
rates, which were impacted relatively little during the Great Recession. While demand is strong,
new construction has been modest in the current economic recovery.
Cupertino’s residential market is primarily comprised of single-family attached and
detached homes, which together account for nearly 70 percent of the city’s housing
stock. The proportion of homeowners in Cupertino is approximately 63 percent,
reflecting the predominance of single-family homes in the community which tend to
be purchased by owner-occupants.
Cupertino’s median home price at the end of 2012 was approximately $1,045,800,
almost double the median home price of $525,000 reported for Santa Clara County.
During the Great Recession, the median home price in Cupertino fell by only eight
percent from peak to trough, compared to a 35 percent price decline countywide.
A breakdown of data for home sales by type of unit and size indicates that most of
Cupertino’s units selling for less than the reported median are condominiums.
These units sold for a median price of $775,000 at the end of 2012, compared to
single-family home sales with a median price of $1.4 million. Two-thirds of
condominiums sales were for two bedroom units, in contrast to over 50 fifty percent
of single family home sales for units with four or more bedrooms.
Thirty percent of Cupertino’s housing stock is in multifamily units. An analysis of
rental residential properties indicates that the city’s rental stock has a higher
proportion of larger rental units (59 percent of units had two or more bedrooms)
than found elsewhere in Santa Clara County (49 percent of total units with two or
more bedrooms), likely reflecting demand for rentals oriented to families attracted
by local schools.
The city’s rental apartment complexes are experiencing strong occupancy and rising
rental rates. Although occupancy rates fell during the Great Recession to 93 percent,
occupancy had recovered to almost 95 percent by the end of the second quarter of
2013. Market analysts consider 95 percent occupancy rates to indicate a balanced
market between demand and supply.
Rental rates in Cupertino now exceed rental rates achieved prior to the recession.
As of the end of the second quarter 2013, the average apartment in Cupertino was
$2,426 –17 percent higher than the average apartment rental rate for Santa Clara
County ($2,062).
While residential construction in Santa Clara County is approaching pre-recession
levels, residential construction in Cupertino has improved only slightly from its
GENERAL PLAN AMENDMENT – MARKET STUDY
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trough year 2009, despite strong demand signals such as rising home prices and
apartment rents.
As of the date of this report, there was only two planned or proposed for-sale
residential projects, Parkside Trails (18 units) on Stevens Creek Road and a six-unit
live/work project on Foothill Boulevard and Silver Oak Way. Cupertino also has three
rental residential projects in the development pipeline, which will add a total of 404
units to the housing supply.
Overall, there is strong demand for both for-sale and rental housing, and a potential
gap in the market for units targeted to young or single households or other smaller
households. This mismatch is suggested by the profile of workers commuting into
Cupertino, with lower median ages than residents.
Retail Market Assessment
While Cupertino has one regional mall and several community retail shopping centers and
clusters, the city is experiencing significant retail sales leakage overall. As noted in the separate
Retail Strategy Report, there are barriers to entry for new retail in the City due to lack of suitable
sites. While there are planned projects that may allow the city to recapture a portion of these
lost sales opportunities, the City’s biggest opportunity to improve its retail sector lies with
successfully redeveloping the existing Vallco Shopping Center.
Total retail sales for Cupertino in 2011 were estimated at approximately $615 million.
The three largest categories by sales volume are food and beverage stores (27
percent), food services and drinking places (22 percent), and general merchandise
stores (20 percent). Taxable retail sales have risen over the past three years reflecting
both a recovery from the Great Recession as well as population growth.
When measured on a per capita basis, total retail sales in Cupertino are relatively
low, at $10,483 annually per resident, compared to $15,807 annually for the Retail
Trade Area and $13,404 for Santa Clara County. This results in sales leakage outside
of Cupertino, meaning residents and workers are spending retail dollars at stores in
other jurisdictions nearby.
Much of this leakage from Cupertino is attributable to a strong surrounding Regional
Trade Area, with ample shopping centers and retail facilities serving the larger South
Bay. When analyzed overall, the Regional Trade Area is well-balanced between
potential demand from residents and workers, and sales occurring within it; analysis
indicated less than eight percent of potential sales from Trade Area customers were
occurring outside of the Trade Area.
Cupertino’s retail leakage to the Retail Trade Area does not stem from any
fundamental flaw in its location, transportation access, or demographics, but rather
GENERAL PLAN AMENDMENT – MARKET STUDY
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from other retail development being better executed and operated outside the City
(see Retail Strategy Report for further information see the Retail Strategy Study).
Cupertino has relatively strong retail sales in stores selling everyday items, such as
food stores and drug stores.
General merchandise stores that sell a mix of everyday items and comparison goods
are performing well due to the presence of three mall department stores and one
discount department store in Cupertino.
Stores specializing in other types of comparison goods, however, are lacking in the
city. With the exception of the Vallco Shopping Mall, most of Cupertino’s retail
stores serve convenience-oriented shopping.
None of the existing shopping centers in Cupertino can be categorized as a
“lifestyle” center” although Cupertino Village, The Oaks, and Vallco Shopping
Center have elements of “lifestyle” retail This newer type of retail, which combines
upscale, specialty retail, dining, and entertainment in one shopping experience, has
recently been developed elsewhere in the Bay Area, exemplified by Santana Row.
The Main Street project planned for Cupertino will add this type of experience to the
city’s retail inventory.
Despite exceptionally strong household demographics and worker incomes, as well as
significant retail leakage, the market has only recently responded with new retail projects in
Cupertino.
Terranomics, Inc., a regional commercial brokerage firm specializing in retail,
indicates that the Cupertino/Sunnyvale submarket has an inventory of 4.2 million
square feet of retail as of the end of the second quarter 2013. The submarket’s
inventory has expanded modestly by nearly five percent over the past seven years.
The Cupertino/Sunnyvale submarket has averaged approximately 27,200 square feet
of net retail absorption annually over the past ten years. The market experienced
negative net absorption service in 2010, reflecting the impact of the Great Recession
as well as in 2012 when some retail space was unoccupied due to renovation or
replacement project plans occurring both in Cupertino and Sunnyvale.
A review of retail spaces currently for lease in Cupertino indicates an asking and
actual rental range between $2.25 and $4.50 monthly per square foot triple net – a
level high enough to make new retail construction potentially financially feasible.
There are eight projects with a retail component that are under construction,
approved, or planned in Cupertino. These projects together will bring a total of
approximately 352,600 net new square feet of retail to the city.
GENERAL PLAN AMENDMENT – MARKET STUDY
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Overall, there is potentially strong market support for renovated or new retail facilities – given
that existing and new centers deliver the right retail mix in a contemporary setting that provides
a great experience to shoppers. Cupertino enjoys two advantages to support new retail
development:
Centrally located within the Retail Trade Area
Excellent access to freeways, expressways, and major arterials
A detailed analysis of Cupertino’s retail sales data indicates a number of retail categories that
could be targeted for both planned and proposed projects as well as future retail development
under the General Plan Amendment. Categories with significant potential (defined here as
categories in which per capital sales in Cupertino are less than half the per capita sales for Santa
Clara County) include:
Vehicle and parts dealers (except for tire dealers)
Radio, television, and other electronics stores,
Computer and software stores
Home centers, paint and wallpaper stores, hardware stores, and other building
material dealers
Meat markets and specialty food stores
Cosmetics, beauty supplies, and perfume stores
Men’s and woman’s clothing stores, children’s and infant’s clothing stores
Family clothing stores
Clothing accessory stores
Luggage and leather goods stores
Bookstores, news dealers and newsstands
Prerecorded tape, compact disc, and record stores
Warehouse clubs and supercenters
Miscellaneous retail stores (except pet and pet supplies stores and tobacco stores)
Food service contractors and drinking places (alcoholic beverages)
The degree to which Cupertino can increase sales in these above-mentioned categories will
depend on the specific location and site characteristics and location of new retail development
and general competitive forces (such as location of competitors). See the Retail Strategy Study
for more information on this topic.
As indicated in the Retail Strategy Report, the Vallco Shopping Center represents a mixed
picture for Cupertino. Its anchor department stores and entertainment options appear to draw
shoppers to the city, but the poor performance of the remainder of the mall contributes to the
city’s overall leakage of sales to other competing communities.
To expand retail offerings at Vallco and to improve the overall experience of
shopping at this center, property owners need incentives to invest in or redevelop
their properties.
GENERAL PLAN AMENDMENT – MARKET STUDY
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Increasing density at Vallco to permit mixed-uses would be a powerful incentive to
motivate Vallco property owners to improve and/or redevelop the shopping center.
Office Market Assessment
The office market in Cupertino has been performing strongly, led by the growth of Apple Inc.,
and other technology companies. By several metrics, demand continues to be strong, limited
primarily by supply constraints. To continue to be attractive to technology companies, the city
must encourage the renovation or replacement of existing office facilities with newer, more
functional, environmentally sustainable space with a high level of on-site amenities as well as
strong linkages to nearby retail and recreational amenities.
Cupertino’s inventory of office space consists of 4.1 million square feet located
primarily along Stevens Creek Boulevard, De Anza, and North Wolfe Road.
Cupertino accounts for 6.7 percent of Santa Clara County’s 61 million square foot
office market.
Measured by vacancy rates, the Cupertino office market has exhibited consistently
lower vacancy rates than for either Santa Clara County or the West Valley office
submarket. As of the end of the first quarter 2013, the city’s office vacancy rate was
only 1.5 percent compared to 11.7 percent in the West Valley and 13.0 percent
county wide.
The city’s low office vacancy rate is the result of four years of positive net absorption
and little new office construction. Over the past ten years the average annual net
absorption of office space has been approximately 60,500 square feet.
Office landlords have been able to achieve consistently higher rental rates in
Cupertino than in the West Valley submarket and County overall. At the end of the
first quarter 2013, the average full service monthly asking rental rate for Class A office
space was $3.94 per square foot on a full service basis in Cupertino, compared to
$3.56 per square foot in the West Valley and $3.49 per square foot countywide.
Commercial brokers report that large blocks of office space are generally not available and high
office rents discourage some businesses from locating in the Cupertino.
Cupertino City Center, considered the city’s premier office building, has been 100
percent occupied for over a year and only now has 8,200 square feet available.
Similarly, the Cupertino Financial Center reports only 1,000 square feet available as
of the date of this report.
There are four planned and proposed office development projects in Cupertino that
could add up to one million square feet of additional supply to the city’s inventory.
However, three-quarters of this inventory expansion is for Apple Inc., and
GENERAL PLAN AMENDMENT – MARKET STUDY
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approximately 294,000 square feet of additional office is planned in three other
projects and could be offered to other firms and businesses.
Hotel Market Assessment
Business-related travel is the driver of demand for hotel rooms in Silicon Valley. Exceptionally
strong occupancy and growth in room revenue in Cupertino’s existing hotels suggest support
for additional hotel rooms. General population and employment growth will also increase
overall total demand. Hotels are one of the riskiest real estate investments and financing can be
difficult to obtain. As a result development of new hotels tends to lag job growth. Cupertino has
an advantage over other West Valley communities by having Apple Inc., as its main employer
and generator of business travel.
Cupertino has an inventory of 785 rooms in five hotel properties: Cupertino Inn,
Courtyard by Marriott, Hilton Garden Inn, Kimpton Cypress Hotel and Aloft
Cupertino.
Hotel operators indicate that between 70 and 75 percent of hotel room demand is
business related.
After declining during the Great Recession, hotel occupancy in Cupertino is now
higher than before the recession – averaging 80 percent occupancy during 2012.
Some operators report current occupancy rates as high as 90 or 100 percent during
weekdays. Most hotel market analysts consider 70 percent occupancy as an overall
financially feasible level; thus, Cupertino’s rates are relatively high, suggesting strong
market demand and room for growth in supply.
The average daily room rate for Cupertino hotel properties, at $134.30 in 2012, is
approaching pre-recession levels.
The city’s hotel development pipeline totals 302 rooms in two projects located at the
Oaks Shopping Center and within the Main Street project, respectively.
Overall, market indicators, including the expansion of Apple Inc., signal support for
new hotel development in Cupertino.
Summary of Demand Estimates
Based on the above analysis, the following table summarizes the market demand findings of this
report. These findings will be considered during the planning process and inform the setting of
new allocations for the City of Cupertino.
Housing. Demand estimates range from indicate market support for an increased
allocation of between 473 and 1,939 units by 2020 and between 2,353 and 4,420 units
by 2035.
GENERAL PLAN AMENDMENT – MARKET STUDY
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Office. Demand estimates are 2.9 million square feet through 2020 and 3.6 million
square feet by 2035. These estimates incorporate the Apple 2 campus and would
accommodate demand from a large corporate user (either new or an existing firm
expanding in the future).
Retail. The range of supportable square footage of new retail space resulting from
capture of current sales leakages of existing resident and worker expenditures and
future demand from new residents and workers is estimated to be between 51,800
and 222,000 by 2020 and from 158,000 to 345,000 square feet by 2035. This level of
demand indicates that the current remaining commercial allocation of 701,500
square feet is generally adequate. While a portion of this demand could be met with
renovated or redeveloped retail in all four corridors, the primary opportunity to
capture this retail demand as well as increase the city’s share of retail sales within the
Retail Trade Area would lie with the Vallco Shopping Center. The Retail Strategy
Report presents a detailed analysis of the Vallco district.
Hotel. No or little new hotel demand is identified between now and 2020, but new
demand for hotel rooms may range from 40 to 985 room by 2035.
Summary of Demand Estimates
Office
LowHighLowHighLowHigh
Through 2020
Demand Through 2020 (Units/Sq.Ft.)8771,535303,061227,800 398,000 61202
Demand Adjustments (a)- - 2,750,000 - - - -
Less: Entitled Projects (404)(404)147,050176,000 176,000 (151)(151)
Net Demand 4731,9392,906,01151,800 222,000(90)51
Through 2035
Demand Through 2035 (Units/Sq.Ft.)2,7574,824952,477 334,000521,000 191636
Demand Adjustments - - 2,750,000(a)- - - 500 (b)
Less: Entitled Projects 404404147,050176,000176,000(151)(151)
Net Demand 2,3534,4203,555,428158,000345,00040985
Notes:
(a) For Office Apple Campus 2 and 1.5 million sq.ft. added; see text for description.
(b) Adjustment for flexibility in meeting long-term demand under high scenario; see text for description.
Sources: City of Cupertino; BAE 2013.
Residential HotelRetail
GENERAL PLAN AMENDMENT – MARKET STUDY
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INTRODUCTION
Located in the heart of the Silicon Valley with a 2010 population of approximately 58,3002,
Cupertino has emerged over the past two decades as one of the major economic nodes in the
increasingly interconnected global economy. The city is home to one of the world’s most
valuable companies and brands (Apple, Inc.), has a thriving small business sector, and is one of
the most highly educated communities in the nation.
In early 2013, the City of Cupertino initiated a process to review several properties in the
commercial districts in Cupertino, including the Vallco Shopping Mall, as part of a focused
General Plan Amendment (GPA). This process includes an extensive community discussion on
mobility, urban design and economic development challenges and ideas. As a starting point for
the GPA process, the City will be evaluating potential increases to citywide development
allocations for office, commercial, housing and hotel uses.
This Market Demand Analysis provides background information on demographic and
employment trends in Cupertino, Santa Clara County and the greater Bay Area, and assesses
market trends and demand for new residential, retail and office development in Cupertino. The
information and analysis provided in this analysis will inform the development of Concept
Alternatives that will form the basis for the General Plan Amendment.
General Plan Amendment Major Mixed-use Corridors
The GPA will focus on identifying land use, economic development, and urban design changes
on five corridors, shown in Figure 1 below. These major mixed-use corridors represent key
“change areas” within Cupertino where future development will be focused.
Most of these areas are developed with existing uses, and as a result, new development
facilitated by the GPA would consist largely of either redevelopment of existing buildings,
selective demolition of existing structures and replacement with new construction, or new infill
development adjacent to existing uses.
2 This study uses 2010 as the base year for comparisons and consistency with forecasts prepared by the
Association of Bay Area Governments; the 2012 U.S. Census population estimate for Cupertino is
approximately 60,000.
GENERAL PLAN AMENDMENT – MARKET STUDY
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Figure 1: General Plan Amendment Major Mixed-Use Corridors
Source: City of Cupertino and MIG, 2014
A. Homestead Corridor (red)
This corridor includes the area surrounding Homestead Road between Stelling and Blaney
Avenue, within the Cupertino city limits. This corridor runs along the city’s northern border and
includes commercial uses, a PG&E facility, and several low, medium, and high density
residential neighborhoods.
B. North Wolfe Corridor (blue)
This corridor is a major north/south connector that includes the Apple Campus 2, hotels, office,
and other commercial uses.
C. Heart of the City Corridor (green)
This corridor is the ‘‘heart’’ of Cupertino and includes many of the city’s largest commercial,
office, mixed-use, and residential areas located along Stevens Creek Boulevard. It also includes
the entire Vallco Shopping District site. This corridor has the same boundary as the current
Heart of the City Specific Plan.
D. North De Anza Corridor (purple)
This corridor is a major north/south connector that includes many office and commercial uses.
GENERAL PLAN AMENDMENT – MARKET STUDY
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E. South De Anza Corridor (yellow)
This corridor a north/south connector that includes smaller-scale commercial, office and
residential uses
Implications for the General Plan Amendment
All of the major mixed-use corridors are comprised of high traffic arterials, with many sites
having visibility of quick access to I-280, making sites within the corridors highly desirable for
residential and commercial redevelopment and/or new construction.
GENERAL PLAN AMENDMENT – MARKET STUDY
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DEMOGRAPHIC TRENDS
The following sections detail demographic characteristics and trends in Cupertino, including
how the city has changed and grown in recent years, which will inform the real estate market
demand analysis presented in later sections of this report. Demographic data were compiled
from the U.S. Census Decennial Census and American Community Survey (ACS). The ACS
publishes estimates of demographic conditions for geographies the size of Cupertino based on
statistical sampling conducted continuously over a three-year period.3 While these data cannot
represent conditions at a specific point in time, as in the previous decennial censuses, they are
updated on an annual basis and offer a valuable means to compare characteristics across
geographies. Estimated future changes in population, households, and employment were
based on projections provided by the Association of Bay Area Governments (ABAG). To the
extent that data are available, information is presented for Cupertino along with comparative
information for Santa Clara County and the nine-county Bay Area.4 The base year of the
demographic analysis is 2010 to facilitate comparisons and for consistency with ABAG forecasts.
Population and Household Trends
As shown in Table 1, Cupertino had a population of 58,302 residents and 20,181 households in
2010. These figures represent a 15 percent increase in population and an 11 percent increase in
households since 2000, significantly higher than the rate of growth in Santa Clara County (six
percent increase in population; seven percent increase in households) and the Bay Area (five
percent increase in population; six percent increase in households). Between 2000 and 2010, the
rate of population and household growth in Cupertino surpassed the growth rate in
surrounding areas. Table 1 summarizes population and household trends for Cupertino, Santa
Clara County, and the Bay Area.
3This data source replaces the information obtained in previous Censuses from the “long form” questionnaire. For
more information on the ACS, see www.census.gov/acs/www/about_the_survey/american_community_survey/
4 The nine-county Bay Area consists of the Alameda, Contra Costa, Marin, Napa, San Francisco, San Mateo, Santa
Clara, Solano, and Sonoma Counties.
GENERAL PLAN AMENDMENT – MARKET STUDY
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Table 1: Population and Household Trends,
2000-2010
Annual
% Change
Cupertino200020102000-2010
Population50,54658,3021.4%
Households18,20420,1811.0%
Santa Clara County
Population1,682,5851,781,6420.6%
Households565,863604,2040.7%
Bay Area (a)
Population6,783,7607,150,7390.5%
Households2,466,0192,608,0230.6%
Notes:
(a) The nine-county Bay Area includes Alameda, Contra
Costa, Marin, Napa, San Francisco, San Mateo, Santa Clara,
Solano, and Sonoma counties.
Sources: U.S. Census 2000 & 2010; BAE, 2013.
Household Composition
Households in Cupertino tend to be slightly larger than average for the Bay Area and about the
same size as Santa Clara County. In 2010, the average household size was approximately 2.9
persons in Cupertino and Santa Clara County and 2.7 persons in the Bay Area overall, as shown
in Table 2. Moreover, Cupertino has a larger proportion of family households and households
with children than Santa Clara County and the Bay Area. Family households accounted for more
than three quarters of all Cupertino households (78 percent) in 2010, compared to 71 percent of
households in Santa Clara County and 65 percent of households in the Bay Area. Close to half
of all households in Cupertino (47 percent) included children under the age of 18, compared to
approximately one third in Santa Clara County (38 percent) and the Bay Area (33 percent). The
large and growing number of households with children in Cupertino is due largely to the school
districts that serve the city, which are among the most highly rated in the country.
Household characteristics suggest recent demographic shifts in Cupertino, leading to larger
household sizes, more families, and more households with children. The average household size
in Cupertino increased from 2.75 persons in 2000 to 2.87 persons in 2010, while the average
household size was essentially unchanged in both Santa Clara County and Bay Area. The
proportion of family households and households with children also increased between 2000 and
2010 in Cupertino while changing only slightly in Santa Clara County and the Bay Area.
GENERAL PLAN AMENDMENT – MARKET STUDY
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Table 2: Household Composition, 2000-2010
Santa Clara
CupertinoCountyBay Area (a)
200020102000201020002010
Average Household Size2.752.872.922.902.692.69
Household Type (b)
Non-Family
Single Person19.6%17.6%21.4%21.8%25.9%26.1%
2+ Persons5.6%4.3%8.7%7.6%9.5%9.2%
Non-Family Households25.2%21.8%30.1%29.4%35.3%35.4%
Family Households74.8%78.2%69.9%70.6%64.7%64.6%
Households with Children < 1843.2%47.3%38.6%38.4%34.7%33.4%
Notes:
(a) The nine-county Bay Area includes Alameda, Contra Costa, Marin, Napa, San
Francisco, San Mateo, Santa Clara, Solano, and Sonoma counties.
(b) A family is a group of two people or more related by birth, marriage, or adoption
and residing together.
Sources: U.S. Census 2000 & 2010; BAE, 2013.
Age Distribution
Census data indicate that Cupertino residents have a slightly higher median age than residents
in the region and the city has a significantly different distribution of age cohorts. In 2010, the
median age in Cupertino was 39.9, compared to 36.2 in Santa Clara County, and 37.7 in the Bay
Area. Looking at the age cohorts, as shown in Figure 2, Cupertino has a high proportion of
children under 18 (28 percent of the population in 2010, compared to 24 percent in the county
and 22 percent in the region) and adults in the 35 to 64 years-of-age cohort (46 percent of the
population in 2010, compared to 41 percent in the county and 42 percent in the region).
Conversely, the city has a lower proportion of adults in the 18 to 34 years-of-age cohort, which
accounted for only 14 percent of the population in Cupertino and 24 percent of the population
of the county and region. These data demonstrate that Cupertino is primarily populated by
families with children and that young adults do not comprise a large portion of the population.
GENERAL PLAN AMENDMENT – MARKET STUDY
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Figure 2: Age Distribution, 2010
Notes:
(a) The nine-county Bay Area includes Alameda, Contra Costa, Marin, Napa, San
Francisco, San Mateo, Santa Clara, Solano, and Sonoma counties.
Sources: U.S. Census 2000 & 2010; BAE, 2013.
14%24%24%
46%
41%42%
12%11%12%
28%24%22%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
CupertinoSanta Clara CountyBay Area (a)
65 or older
35-64
18-34
Under 18
Ethnicity
Cupertino differs markedly from the county and region with respect to the racial and ethnic
breakdown of the population. In 2010, approximately two thirds of the population of Cupertino
was of Asian descent, while approximately one third of the population of Santa Clara County
and one quarter of the population of the Bay Area consisted of individuals of Asian descent. In
all three geographies, data from 2010 demonstrate a significant increase in the Asian
population compared to 2000; however, the difference is especially notable in Cupertino, where
the Asian population grew by 64 percent between 2000 and 2010.
Compared to the county and region, Cupertino had a smaller share of individuals from all other
racial and ethnic groups in 2010. The city’s share of individuals of Hispanic origin (four percent
of the population) is particularly small relative to Santa Clara County (27 percent of the
population) and the region (24 percent of the population).
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Table 3: Ethnicity, 2000-2010
% Change
EthnicityNumber% of TotalNumber% of Total2000-2010
Non-Hispanic48,53696.0%56,18996.4%15.8%
White24,18147.8%17,08529.3%-29.3%
Black/African American3190.6%3220.6%0.9%
American Indian/Alaskan Native800.2%800.1%0.0%
Asian22,41444.3%36,81563.1%64.3%
Native Hawaiian/Pacific Islander580.1%390.1%-32.8%
Some Other Race1240.2%1100.2%-11.3%
2+ Races1,3602.7%1,7383.0%27.8%
Hispanic 2,010 4.0%2,113 3.6%5.1%
Total 50,546100.0%58,302100.0%15.3%
% Change
Ethnicity Number% of TotalNumber% of Total2000-2010
Non-Hispanic 1,279,18476.0%1,302,43273.1%1.8%
White 744,28244.2%626,90935.2%-15.8%
Black/African American 44,4752.6%42,3312.4%-4.8%
American Indian/Alaskan Native5,2700.3%4,0420.2%-23.3%
Asian 426,77125.4%565,46631.7%32.5%
Native Hawaiian/Pacific Islander5,0400.3%6,2520.4%24.0%
Some Other Race 3,5220.2%3,8770.2%10.1%
2+ Races 49,8243.0%53,5553.0%7.5%
Hispanic 403,401 24.0%479,210 26.9%18.8%
Total 1,682,585100.0%1,781,642100.0%5.9%
Bay Area (a)
2000 2010 % Change
Ethnicity Number% of TotalNumber% of Total2000-2010
Non-Hispanic 5,468,58580.6%5,468,93976.5%0.0%
White 3,392,20450.0%3,032,90342.4%-10.6%
Black/African American 497,2057.3%460,1786.4%-7.4%
American Indian/Alaskan Native24,7330.4%20,6910.3%-16.3%
Asian 1,278,51518.8%1,645,87223.0%28.7%
Native Hawaiian/Pacific Islander33,6400.5%41,0030.6%21.9%
Some Other Race 18,4510.3%20,0240.3%8.5%
2+ Races 223,8373.3%248,2683.5%10.9%
Hispanic 1,315,175 19.4%1,681,800 23.5%27.9%
Total 6,783,760100.0%7,150,739100.0%5.4%
Notes:
(a) The nine-county Bay Area includes Alameda, Contra Costa, Marin, Napa, San Francisco, San
Mateo, Santa Clara, Solano, and Sonoma counties.
Sources: U.S. Census 2000 & 2010; BAE, 2013.
Cupertino
2000 2010
Santa Clara County
2000 2010
GENERAL PLAN AMENDMENT – MARKET STUDY
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Household Income Distribution
Households in Cupertino earn significantly higher annual incomes than households in Santa
Clara County and the Bay Area. ACS data indicate that the median annual household income in
Cupertino was almost $124,000, approximately $37,000 higher than the median household
income in Santa Clara County ($87,148) and $48,000 more than the median income in the Bay
Area ($75,837). Income disparity between Cupertino and the region was most substantial in the
high income categories. Approximately one quarter of all households in Cupertino had an
annual income of $200,000 or more, while only 14 percent of households in Santa Clara County
and 11 percent of households in the Bay Area had an annual income of $200,000 or more.
Table 4: Household Income (a)
Santa Clara
Income CategoryCupertinoCountyBay Area (b)
Less than $15,0004.7%7.4%8.8%
$15,000-$24,9995.6%6.6%7.5%
$25,000-$34,9992.7%6.1%7.1%
$35,000-$49,9995.7%9.3%10.3%
$50,000-$74,99910.8%14.1%15.8%
$75,000-$99,9998.1%12.3%12.2%
$100,000-$149,99922.3%18.9%17.5%
$150,000-$199,99914.2%11.0%9.3%
$200,000 or more25.8%14.3%11.3%
Total 100.0%100.0%100.0%
Median HH Income$123,717$87,148$75,837
Per Capita Income$50,749$39,290$38,235
Notes:
(a) The American Community Survey (ACS) publishes
demographic estimates based on statistical sampling conducted
between 2009-2011.
(b) The nine-county Bay Area includes Alameda, Contra Costa,
Marin, Napa, San Francisco, San Mateo, Santa Clara, Solano, and
Sonoma counties.
Sources: ACS, 2009-2011; BAE, 2013.
Educational Attainment
ACS data indicate that Cupertino residents tend to have a high level of educational attainment.
Among residents age 25 and older, almost all Cupertino residents (96 percent) have earned a
high school diploma, compared to 86 percent of Santa Clara County residents and 87 percent
of Bay Area residents, as shown in Table 5 below. More than three quarters of Cupertino
residents age 25 and older have a college degree, compared to approximately half of the
population age 25 and older in Santa Clara County and the Bay Area. Moreover, the share of
Cupertino residents age 25 and older with a graduate or professional degree (40 percent) is
twice as high as the proportion of residents age 25 and older with a graduate or professional
degree in Santa Clara County (20 percent) and the Bay Area (17 percent).
GENERAL PLAN AMENDMENT – MARKET STUDY
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Table 5: Educational Attainment for Population 25+ Year of
Age (a)
Santa ClaraBay
Educational AttainmentCupertinoCountyArea (b)
Less than 9th Grade 2.1%7.3%7.1%
9th to 12th Grade, No Diploma 1.9%6.2%6.0%
High School Graduate (incl. Equivalency)6.7%16.3%18.0%
Some College, No Degree 10.6%17.6%19.6%
Associate Degree 5.0%7.1%7.2%
Bachelor's Degree 33.3%25.6%25.3%
Graduate/Professional Degree 40.3%20.0%16.8%
Total 100.0%100.0%100.0%
Population with College Degree 78.6%52.7%49.2%
Notes:
(a) The American Community Survey (ACS) publishes demographic estimates
based on statistical sampling conducted between 2009-2011.
(b) The nine-county Bay Area includes Alameda, Contra Costa, Marin, Napa,
San Francisco, San Mateo, Santa Clara, Solano, and Sonoma counties.
Sources: ACS, 2009-2011; BAE, 2013.
Schools
The public school districts that serve Cupertino are known for providing high quality education
to students in kindergarten through twelfth grade. The city is served by the Cupertino Union
School District for kindergarten through eighth grade and the Fremont Union High School
District for ninth grade through twelfth grade. Like all public schools in California that serve
students in kindergarten through twelfth grade, the schools that serve Cupertino are rated
based on Academic Performance Index (API) scores, which is a composite score based on
statewide standardized test results. API scores range from 200 to 1,000, with a higher score
indicating higher test results. In 2012, all of the 25 schools in the Cupertino Union School District
had an API score over the statewide performance target of 800, including 22 schools with an API
score over 900 The 2012 API score for the five schools in the high school district that serves
Cupertino (the Fremont Union High School District) ranged from 766 to 957, and all but one
school in the district had an API score of 874 or above.
Strong educational performance has been accompanied by rising enrollments in Cupertino
schools. Enrollment in the Cupertino Union School District has increased by nearly twenty
percent over the past ten years to 19,230 in the 2013-14 school year. The Fremont Union High
School District has grown by 14.5 percent over the same time period to its current enrollment of
10,665 students. This growth in enrollment has occurred even though housing production
within the City has been limited over the past several years.
Due in part to high API scores, the school districts that serve Cupertino have earned a
prestigious reputation that enhances the desirability of the city as a residential location for
families with school-aged children. This is reflected in the demographic data discussed above,
which shows that a large share of Cupertino households include children under 18
GENERAL PLAN AMENDMENT – MARKET STUDY
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Resident Occupation and Employment
ACS provides data on resident employment by occupation and by industry, which is shown in
Table 6. Occupation data relate to the type of tasks workers perform, whereas industry data
relate to the economic sector in which a worker is employed. ACS also provides data on workers
employed in Cupertino, which will be discussed in a subsequent section.
According to ACS data, Cupertino residents are significantly more concentrated in
management, business, science, and arts occupations than are residents of Santa Clara County
or the Bay Area. While these occupations employ more than three quarters of employed
Cupertino residents, less than half of all residents in Santa Clara County or the Bay Area are
employed in these occupations. Relative to the county and region, Cupertino had a small share
of residents in all other occupational categories, particularly service occupations. Four percent
of employed Cupertino residents held service occupations, compared to 14 percent of
employed Santa Clara County residents and 16 percent of all employed residents in the Bay
Area. Individuals employed in management, business, and science occupations tend to earn
more than people employed in service or other occupations, which is consistent with the high
household incomes in Cupertino.
Cupertino residents also differed from residents of Santa Clara County and the Bay Area in
terms of industries of employment. Manufacturing employed the largest proportion of residents
in Cupertino, employing more than one quarter (28 percent) of employed residents, while only
20 percent of Santa Clara residents and 11 percent of Bay Area residents worked in the
manufacturing industry. Given the nature of the Silicon Valley economy, it is likely that many
Cupertino residents working in the manufacturing industry work in high-tech fields such as
computer or software design. Aside from manufacturing, the largest source of employment for
Cupertino residents was the professional, scientific, management, and administrative industry,
which accounted for 25 percent of resident employment. This was followed by the education,
health care, and social assistance industry, which accounted for 17 percent of resident
employment. The education, health care, and social assistance industry accounted for a larger
share of resident employment in Santa Clara County (18 percent) and the Bay Area (20 percent).
GENERAL PLAN AMENDMENT – MARKET STUDY
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Table 6: Employed Residents by Occupation and Industry (a)
CupertinoSanta Clara CountyBay Area (b)
OccupationNumber% TotalNumber% TotalNumber% Total
Management, Business, Science, Arts19,15677.5%410,32449.6%1,515,45844.9%
Service1,0544.3%117,61814.2%547,81016.2%
Sales & Office3,49914.2%174,18321.0%781,90923.2%
Natural Resources, Construction, Maintenance4882.0%56,7666.9%247,8497.3%
Production, Transportation, Material Moving5242.1%68,9678.3%274,8538.1%
Military Specific Occupations0 0.0%224 0.0%7,010 0.2%
Total 24,721100.0%828,082100.0%3,374,889100.0%
CupertinoSanta Clara CountyBay Area (b)
Industry Number% TotalNumber% TotalNumber% Total
Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing, Hunting, Mining 360.1%4,1280.5%26,7410.8%
Construction 4121.7%45,2945.5%200,3465.9%
Manufacturing 6,99228.3%163,62219.8%381,88211.3%
Wholesale Trade 5022.0%19,6992.4%89,9612.7%
Retail Trade 1,5106.1%80,1759.7%345,93810.3%
Transportation, Warehousing, Utilities 4131.7%22,9452.8%144,0084.3%
Information 1,3575.5%32,0833.9%114,9543.4%
Finance, Insurance, Real Estate 1,3355.4%42,6255.1%249,6257.4%
Professional, Scientific, Mgmt., Admin 6,24925.3%149,20918.0%543,61416.1%
Educational Svcs., Health Care, Social Assistance4,10716.6%151,22318.3%683,18420.2%
Arts, Entertainment, Rec, Accomod., Food Svcs.7343.0%59,1547.1%289,0928.6%
Other Svcs., Except Public Administration 7152.9%35,4684.3%166,0564.9%
Public Administration 3511.4%21,8392.6%125,9963.7%
Armed Forces 8 0.0%618 0.1%13,492 0.4%
Total 24,721100.0%828,082100.0%3,374,889100.0%
Note:
(a) The American Community Survey (ACS) data used in this table is based on statistical sampling conducted between
2007-2011. Data are reported for workers age 16 & older.
Sources: ACS, 2007-2011; BAE, 2013.
Commute Flow
Cupertino has more jobs than employed residents, leading to a net inflow of workers to the city,
and most Cupertino residents work in Cupertino or neighboring cities. Table 7 shows work
locations for Cupertino residents, as well as where people employed in Cupertino live, based on
ACS data collected between 2006 and 2008 (the most recent time period for which these data
are available). According to these data, Approximately 24,000 Cupertino residents were
employed in various locations, while the total number of jobs in the city was estimated at
approximately 32,000. Approximately one fifth of all employed Cupertino residents (21 percent)
both lived and worked in Cupertino –suggesting the importance of creating nice places to shop
and dine both during the work day as well as evenings and weekends. Most of the employed
Cupertino residents that did not work in the city worked in cities adjacent to Cupertino,
including San Jose, Sunnyvale, and Santa Clara. Only 13 percent of employed Cupertino
residents worked outside of Santa Clara County.
Similarly, most of the people that are employed in Cupertino live either in Cupertino or
adjacent cities. Approximately one third (31 percent) of people employed in Cupertino live in
GENERAL PLAN AMENDMENT – MARKET STUDY
23
San Jose, 16 percent live in Cupertino, and 34 percent live elsewhere in Santa Clara County.
These data indicate that there is a significant amount of cross-commuting between Cupertino
and other locations within Santa Clara County, but cross commuting between Cupertino and
locations outside of Santa Clara County is relatively limited.
Table 7: Commute Flow (a)
Cupertino Residents by Place of Work Cupertino Workers by Place of Residence
Employed Persons Employed Persons
Place of WorkNumberPercentagePlace of ResidenceNumberPercentage
Santa Clara County21,33087.2%Santa Clara County25,59580.5%
San Jose 5,26521.5%San Jose 9,81030.9%
Cupertino 5,06020.7%Cupertino 5,06015.9%
Sunnyvale 2,80511.5%Sunnyvale 2,8058.8%
Santa Clara 2,66010.9%Santa Clara 2,2607.1%
Mountain View 1,6456.7%Mountain View 9603.0%
Palo Alto 1,3905.7%Saratoga 9403.0%
Milpitas 5552.3%Campbell 8252.6%
Campbell 3651.5%Los Altos 5251.7%
Los Altos 3601.5%Palo Alto 5051.6%
Other Cities 4902.0%Other Cities 1,3554.3%
Unincorporated 7353.0%Unincorporated 5501.7%
All Other Locations3,120 12.8%San Mateo County1,6905.3%
Total24,450100.0%Alameda County1,3554.3%
San Francisco1,3354.2%
All Other Locations1,810 5.7%
Total 31,785100.0%
Notes:
(a) The American Community Survey (ACS) data used for the most recent Census Transportation
Planning Package (CTPP) uses demographic estimates based on statistical sampling conducted
between 2006-2008. Data is reported for workers age 16 and over.
Sources: 2006-2008 Census Transportaion Planning Package; ACS, 2006-2008; BAE, 2013.
Implications for General Plan Amendment
Cupertino’s strong demographics –families with high incomes—constitutes a strong
base of potential support for renovated or new retail facilities.
The city has relatively few younger households and singles, indicating potential
support for smaller residential units (both for-sale and rental).
Cupertino’s excellent public schools will continue to be a major driver of demand for
new residential development and helps moderate adverse impacts of recessionary
economic conditions.
While there are approximately 31,800 jobs in Cupertino, there are approximately
5,100 residents in the city who also work in Cupertino, indicating a net inflow of
approximately 26,700 workers into the community who will make convenience retail
expenditures.
GENERAL PLAN AMENDMENT – MARKET STUDY
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EMPLOYMENT TRENDS
Cupertino is a strong employment location with a net inflow of workers from other cities. To the
extent that Cupertino residents work outside of the city and residents from other areas work in
Cupertino, the city’s daytime population differs from its resident population. The following
section provides information on major employers in Cupertino as well as on occupation,
employment industry, age, income, race, and ethnicity of people employed in Cupertino, based
on data from the U.S. Census ACS. Data on age, income, race, and ethnicity are drawn from the
US Census Transportation Planning Package (CTPP). The most current data provided by CTPP
is based on ACS data collected between 2006 and 2008.
Major Employers
According to the 2012 Comprehensive Annual Financial Report for Cupertino, Apple Inc. was
the largest employer in the city, with approximately 13,000 employees. The number of people
employed at Apple Inc. was more than four times the number of people employed at the city’s
second largest employer, Hewlett-Packard, and far surpassed the number of people employed
at the remaining eight largest employers in the city.
As shown in Table 8, the ten top employers in Cupertino in 2012 consisted primarily of tech
companies, educational institutions, and healthcare services, followed by Target. In addition to
Apple Inc., tech companies among the city’s ten largest employers included Hewlett-Packard,
Chordiant Software (a company providing customer relationship management software and
services), and Trend Micro Inc. (an Internet content security and threat management provider).
Although these are the largest tech companies in Cupertino, large tech companies such as
these tend to create clusters of other high-tech firms, spin-off companies, and support services
for the industry, as documented extensively in several academic studies. This suggests that the
presence of these large high-tech companies in Cupertino leads other companies to seek out
locations in Cupertino, creating demand for office development, which will be discussed in
further detail in later sections of this analysis.
Major employers among education providers consisted of Cupertino Union School District,
Fremont Union School District, and the De Anza School District. Both of the healthcare services
included among the city’s top ten employers in 2012 were located at senior living communities
in Cupertino.
GENERAL PLAN AMENDMENT – MARKET STUDY
25
Table 8: Principal Employers in Cupertino, 2012
Number of
EmployerEmployees
Apple Inc.13,000
Hewlett-Packard3,000
Cupertino Union School District1,474
Foothill/DeAnza Community College District1,291
Fremont Union High School District846
Chordiant Software285
Trend Micro Inc.250
Health Care Center at The Forum250
Target Stores220
Cupertino Healthcare and Wellness180
Source: City of Cupertino, Comprehensive Annual Financial
Report, 2012; BAE, 2013.
Jobs by Occupation and Industry
Table 9 provides data on occupation and industry for jobs located in Cupertino, Santa Clara
County, and Bay Area based on data from the ACS. These data represent jobs for which the
workplace is located in Cupertino, rather than jobs held by Cupertino residents. As shown,
employment in Cupertino is concentrated in management, business, science, and arts
occupations, which represented 61 percent of all jobs in the city. Compared to the county and
region, Cupertino had a small share of jobs in all other occupational categories, particularly
natural resources, construction, and maintenance occupations and production, transportation,
and material moving occupations.
ACS data indicate that manufacturing was the largest employment industry in Cupertino,
representing 29 percent of employment, followed by the professional, scientific, management,
and administrative services industry, which represented 20 percent of employment. Cupertino
also has significant employment in the educational services, health care, and social assistance
industry, which represented 17 percent of employment in the city. These three industries were
also the three largest employment industries in Santa Clara County and the Bay Area; however,
employment in Cupertino was more heavily concentrated in manufacturing and less
concentrated in educational services, healthcare, and social assistance than employment in the
county and region overall. The significant share of manufacturing employment in Cupertino is
due to employers in high-tech fields, including Apple Inc. and Hewlett-Packard, which are
typically classified as companies in the computer and electronics manufacturing industry. A
large share of high-tech employment in Cupertino, including management, science, and service
occupations, is classified within the manufacturing industry, despite that the production-related
occupations associated with these companies are usually located elsewhere.
GENERAL PLAN AMENDMENT – MARKET STUDY
26
Table 9: Occupation and Industry by Workplace Location (a)
CupertinoSanta Clara CountyBay Area (b)
OccupationNumber% TotalNumber% TotalNumber% Total
Management, Business, Science, Arts20,59561.1%477,90351.4%1,555,52744.5%
Service4,10512.2%125,37413.5%562,08216.1%
Sales & Office6,77820.1%189,90520.4%803,38223.0%
Natural Resources, Construction, Maintenance9322.8%66,1077.1%270,8267.8%
Production, Transportation, Material Moving1,3083.9%70,3497.6%294,1688.4%
Military Specific Occupations0 0.0%314 0.0%7,205 0.2%
Total 33,718100.0%929,952100.0%3,493,190100.0%
CupertinoSanta Clara CountyBay Area (b)
Industry Number% TotalNumber% TotalNumber% Total
Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing, Hunting, Mining 150.0%5,0430.5%28,2680.8%
Construction 6822.0%52,6945.7%220,4196.3%
Manufacturing 9,61528.5%188,17420.2%401,66811.5%
Wholesale Trade 6401.9%21,4012.3%94,8592.7%
Retail Trade 4,06612.1%86,7839.3%355,80610.2%
Transportation, Warehousing, Utilities 4321.3%24,8112.7%153,9524.4%
Information 8202.4%39,2014.2%118,4843.4%
Finance, Insurance, Real Estate 1,6354.8%44,7974.8%254,4127.3%
Professional, Scientific, Mgmt., Admin 6,63319.7%166,73417.9%559,57216.0%
Educational Svcs., Health Care, Social Assistance5,81017.2%175,87518.9%697,02920.0%
Arts, Entertainment, Rec, Accomod., Food Svcs.2,1986.5%62,4366.7%293,2758.4%
Other Svcs., Except Public Administration 7242.1%36,1843.9%168,9714.8%
Public Administration 4481.3%25,0642.7%132,7263.8%
Armed Forces 0 0.0%755 0.1%13,749 0.4%
Total 33,718100.0%929,952100.0%3,493,190100.0%
Note:
(a) The American Community Survey (ACS) data used in this table is based on statistical sampling conducted between
2007-2011. Data are reported for workers age 16 & older.
Sources: ACS, 2007-2011; BAE, 2013.
GENERAL PLAN AMENDMENT – MARKET STUDY
27
Worker Age Distribution
Similar to Cupertino residents, people employed in Cupertino consist of a smaller share of
people between age 21 and 34 than people employed in Santa Clara County overall. As shown
in Table 10, CTPP data indicate that 24 percent of people employed in Cupertino were between
age 21 and 34, compared to 28 percent in the county, and a higher proportion of workers
between age 35 and 59 (65 percent in the city and 60 percent in the county). The comparative
shortage of employees in younger age groups suggests a potential need for housing in
Cupertino that is targeted to workers between the ages of 21 and 34, including small, affordable
multifamily units in an amenity-enriched environment, to attract a younger workforce to the city.
Table 10: Employee Age Distribution (a)
CupertinoSanta Clara County
Age CohortNumberPercentNumberPercent
16 to 17 years4701.5%6,8900.7%
18 to 20 years9553.0%30,7503.3%
21 to 24 years11803.7%60,9506.6%
25 to 34 years6,34019.9%200,18021.5%
35 to 44 years10,13031.9%257,35527.7%
45 to 59 years10,49533.0%300,32532.3%
60 to 64 years1,1653.7%43,6554.7%
65 to 74 years8302.6%25,3952.7%
75 years and older220 0.7%4,250 0.5%
Total (b)31,785100.0%929,745100.0%
Median Age 41.9 41.5
Notes:
(a) The American Community Survey (ACS) data used for the most
recent Census Transportation Planning Package (CTPP) uses
demographic estimates based on statistical sampling conducted
between 2006-2008. Data is reported for workers age 16 and
over.
(b) Totals may not sum due to independent rounding of categories.
Sources: 2006-2008 Census Transportaion Planning Package;
ACS, 2006-2008; BAE, 2013.
GENERAL PLAN AMENDMENT – MARKET STUDY
28
Worker Income
Workers employed in Cupertino tend to have higher earnings than workers employed in Santa
Clara County overall. Table 11 shows worker earnings during the past 12 months for people
employed in Cupertino and Santa Clara County, based on CTPP data. As shown, median
earning for workers employed in Cupertino was $81,000 per year (in 2013 dollars), while median
earnings in Santa Clara County ($57,000 in 2013 dollars) was only 70 percent of the Cupertino
median. The disparity in incomes between the city and county is reflected throughout the
earnings distribution for workers (expressed in 2008 dollars), which shows that Cupertino has a
smaller proportion of workers in all income brackets under $65,000 per year and a higher
proportion of workers in all higher income brackets. Inflated to 2013 dollars, $65,000 in 2008
dollars is equal to approximately $71,600. More than one third of all workers in Cupertino (37
percent) had an income over $100,000 ($110,200 in 2013 dollars), compared to less than one
quarter (24 percent) of workers in Santa Clara County.
Table 11: Worker Earnings in the Past 12 Months (a)
CupertinoSanta Clara County
Annual Earnings (b)NumberPercentNumberPercent
No earnings in the past 12 months 00.0%2150.0%
$1 to $9,999 or less 2,8258.9%87,0609.4%
$10,000 to $14,999 1,3354.2%50,4705.4%
$15,000 to $24,999 2,5408.0%102,48011.0%
$25,000 to $34,999 2,3507.4%95,88510.3%
$35,000 to $49,999 2,6908.5%117,63512.7%
$50,000 to $64,999 2,6358.3%101,81011.0%
$65,000 to $74,999 1,7655.6%47,2305.1%
$75,000 to $99,999 3,91012.3%105,41511.3%
$100,000 or more 11,735 36.9%221,545 23.8%
Total (c)31,785100.0%929,745100.0%
Median Annual Earnings (d)$81,087 $56,912
Cupertino as Percent of County142.5%
Notes:
(a) The American Community Survey (ACS) data used for the most recent Census
Transportation Planning Package (CTPP) uses demographic estimates based on
statistical sampling conducted between 2006-2008. Data is reported for workers
age 16 and over.
(b) Figures in distribution are shown in 2008 dollars.
(c) Totals may not sum due to independent rounding of categories.
(d) Median annual earnings are inflated to 2013 dollars.
Sources: 2006-2008 Census Transportaion Planning Package; ACS, 2006-2008;
BAE, 2013.
GENERAL PLAN AMENDMENT – MARKET STUDY
29
Worker Ethnicity
CTPP data indicate that people that work in Cupertino differ from workers in Santa Clara County
overall and from Cupertino residents with respect to racial and ethnic background. Compared
to workers in Santa Clara County overall, a large proportion of workers in Cupertino is White (49
percent) or Asian (34 percent) and small proportion is Hispanic or Latino (12 percent) or Black or
African American (two percent), as shown in Table 12. Despite the relatively large portion of
Asian individuals employed in Cupertino, these data demonstrate a small proportion of Asian
employees given that almost two thirds of Cupertino residents are of Asian descent (as shown in
Table 3 and discussed above). The difference in racial and ethnic background between
Cupertino residents and people employed in Cupertino suggests a need to maintain diverse
retail options in the city to capture demand from local workers as well as residents.
Table 12: Worker Race and Ethnicity (a)
CupertinoSanta Clara County
Race & EthnicityNumberPercentNumberPercent
Hispanic or Latino3,94512.4%218,99023.6%
Not Hispanic or Latino27,83587.6%710,75576.4%
White15,51548.8%395,04042.5%
Black or African Amercian5351.7%26,0902.8%
Asian10,95034.5%265,73528.6%
All Other Races & Two or More Races840 2.6%23,895 2.6%
Total (b)31,785100.0%929,745100.0%
Notes:
(a) The American Community Survey (ACS) data used for the most recent Census
Transportation Planning Package (CTPP) uses demographic estimates based on statistical
sampling conducted between 2006-2008. Data is reported for workers age 16 and over.
(b) Totals may not sum due to independent rounding of categories.
Sources: 2006-2008 Census Transportaion Planning Package; ACS, 2006-2008; BAE,
2013.
Implications for General Plan Amendment
As the city’s largest employer with over 13,000 employees, Apple Inc. impacts the
demand for office space in Cupertino through its own internal growth and
acquisitions, attraction of firms doing business with Apple, as well as through spin-
offs and start-ups established by Apple Inc. employees.
The ethnic profile of workers in Cupertino is different than the profile for the resident
population. While the resident population in the city is over 63 percent of Asian
ethnicities, just under 35 percent of workers are of Asian ethnicities. Compared to
the city’s residential population, a larger percent of workers are of non-Hispanic
white and Hispanic or Latino race and ethnicity. This suggests that retail in Cupertino
must cater to a more diverse base of customers than reflected by the city resident
profile alone.
Overall, Cupertino has a highly compensated workforce that provides a strong base
of potential demand for housing closer to work and for retail sales during the
GENERAL PLAN AMENDMENT – MARKET STUDY
30
workday, although potential retail support is somewhat tempered by onsite food
service and other amenities offered by major employers such as Apple Inc.
However, the General Plan Amendment should make the city attractive to younger
workers by providing more affordable housing in smaller units.
GENERAL PLAN AMENDMENT – MARKET STUDY
31
RETAIL SALES AND LEAKAGE ANALYSIS
This section of the market study for the Cupertino General Plan Amendment examines retail
sales conditions in Cupertino, its Retail Trade Area, and the surrounding region. The purpose
of the analysis is to identify potential market support for new or repurposed retail development
in the seven study areas that can be later used to evaluate the commercial development
allocations under the city’s General Plan. The data presented here and in the Retail Market
Overview are also used as foundational information for the separate Retail Strategy Report
prepared by Greensfelder Commercial Real Estate LLC.
Data for the city and the Retail Trade Area are presented, along with comparative data from
Santa Clara County and California. For the purposes of this analysis, the Retail Trade Area (RTA)
is defined as the area which is easily accessible for Cupertino residents. The RTA was generally
defined by taking a ten-minute drive time from Cupertino (specifically, from the Vallco
Shopping Mall), and grouping together the Zip Codes within that ten-minute drive time.
Additionally, areas roughly to the east of Interstate 880 in San Jose have been excluded. Figure
3 shows the boundaries of the RTA.
Figure 3: Cupertino and the Retail Trade Area
See Appendix for listing of Zip Codes making up the Retail Trade Area.
Source: BAE, 2013.
GENERAL PLAN AMENDMENT – MARKET STUDY
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The goal of the leakage analysis for the city is to identify the relative strength of the city’s retail
sectors. Using the city boundary in doing a leakage analysis is somewhat arbitrary, since the city
is surrounded by other cities with considerable retail development and is not set apart from
other locales by physical boundaries such as hills or water. As a result, the city boundary does
not represent a constraint on Cupertino residents shopping elsewhere or non-residents
shopping in Cupertino. However, a leakage analysis for the city can show sectors where the city
might have an opportunity to capture more sales locally from its residents and employees (while
perhaps also attracting shoppers from nearby areas).
To provide context, a leakage analysis for the larger RTA should indicate the level of shopping
opportunities available to Cupertino residents even if certain types of stores and goods are not
present in the city. Furthermore, the presence of these stores nearby and their ability to attract
city residents and workers may act as a constraint on Cupertino’s ability to attract additional
retail development even if the analysis indicates that city residents and workers are not
purchasing goods within Cupertino itself.
The primary source of information on general retail expenditures in California is the taxable
retail sales data published by the State Board of Equalization (SBOE). SBOE publishes Taxable
Sales in California, a quarterly and annual publication that reports taxable sales by major store
categories by city and county. With adjustments made to take into account nontaxable sales
such as food and prescriptions, this source usually offers the best baseline data for jurisdictions
for which it is available. Beginning in 2009, SBOE used a new categorization of businesses that
makes comparisons over time problematic, but some general statements about the overall level
of retail sales can still be made.
In Cupertino, data analysis is faced with the additional issue that taxable sales generated by
Apple make up a disproportionate share of the total. According to Economic and Fiscal Impacts
Generated by Apple in Cupertino – Current Facilities and Apple Campus 2,5 Apple Inc. accounts
for $1.3 billion in taxable sales in Cupertino in 2012, which provides 45 percent of the city’s sales
tax revenues. These sales consist of online merchandise sales where Cupertino is the point of
sale, sales at the Apple Company Store, taxable sales of cafeteria food and other items to
employees, and use taxes paid by Apple for equipment imported from out of state for its own
internal use in Cupertino. Additionally, SBOE’s home furnishings and appliances category
(which includes computer and electronics retailers) is not disclosed and garners a
disproportionate share of sales relative to Cupertino’s, thus making use of the taxable sales
data in any leakage analysis problematic.
5 Keyser Marston Associates, May 2013, prepared for Apple Inc.
GENERAL PLAN AMENDMENT – MARKET STUDY
33
Furthermore, SBOE does not provide data for portions of cities, and the RTA does not follow
city boundaries, particularly for San Jose, which extends far beyond the defined RTA.
Because of these limitations with SBOE data for Cupertino and the RTA, the leakage analysis
itself utilizes retail sales estimates based on 2011 Zip Code and County Business Patterns
employment data benchmarked to data on sales per employee from the 2007 Economic
Census, with adjustments by category made based on crosschecks with SBOE data and to
reflect more current conditions as needed. Use of this source also allows for a more fine-grained
level of analysis by store type.
Estimated Retail Sales in Cupertino and the RTA by
Major Retail Category
As noted above, because of disclosure issues, the level of detail available for Cupertino in SBOE
data is insufficient for the analysis here and the analysis would not be possible for the RTA
utilizing SBOE data, so to compare actual expenditures in Cupertino and RTA retail outlets with
potential expenditures by store category, an alternative estimate methodology for estimating
sales for the two geographies has been developed. This point-in-time estimate can then cover
all store categories in a way not possible based on SBOE data. For comparative purposes and
as a benchmark, similar estimates have been derived for Santa Clara County and California. As
noted above, these estimates have been derived using the most recent available data from the
Census of Retail Trade and County and Zip Code Business Patterns. These estimates provide
point-in-time data for Cupertino and the RTA by detailed retail category. Further explanation of
the methodology can be found in Appendix D and in the footnotes for Table 13.
For the purposes of the analysis here, the estimated retail sales have been grouped into eleven
categories, corresponding to major 3-digit NAICS retail categories:
Motor Vehicle and Parts Dealers
Home Furnishings and Appliance Stores
Bldg. Materials and Garden Equipment and Supplies
Food and Beverage Stores
Health and Personal Care Stores
Gasoline Stations
Clothing and Clothing Accessories Stores
Sporting Goods, Hobby, Book, and Music Stores
General Merchandise Stores6
6 Includes stores that sell a broad range of merchandise. Examples include traditional department stores such as
Macy’s, discount department stores such as Walmart, and warehouse stores such as Costco.
GENERAL PLAN AMENDMENT – MARKET STUDY
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Miscellaneous Store Retailers
Food Services and Drinking Places7
Sales at non-store retailers (e.g., electronic online sales, mail order, and auction houses) are
excluded from the analysis, as are sales occurring at non-retail outlets. This effectively factors
Apple’s sales out of the analysis.
As shown in Table 13, retail sales for the city for 2011 are estimated at approximately $615
million (all sales presented in inflation-adjusted 2013 dollars unless otherwise noted).8 The three
largest categories are food and beverage stores at 27 percent of sales, food services and
drinking places at 22 percent, and general merchandise stores at 20 percent. These three
sectors are disproportionately large in Cupertino relative to the county, or the state. Cupertino
has very limited sales in the automotive sector. Retail sales in the RTA for 2011 are estimated at
approximately $9.1 billion; the three largest store categories are motor vehicles and parts (22
percent), food and beverage (17 percent) and food services and drinking places (14 percent).
The retail mix is generally much more in balance relative to the county and the state, with the
exception of the motor vehicle and parts sector at 22 percent versus 17 percent for the county
and 18 percent for the state.
The leakage analysis below will provide a clearer picture of the city’s retail strengths and
weaknesses, but per capita sales comparisons by category are a first indicator of strengths and
weaknesses in Cupertino’s retail sector. On a per capita basis, Cupertino’s 2011 retail sales at
$10,483 annually are low compared to $13,404 for the county and $12,493 for California. Several
sectors have per capita sales at less than half of the level of the county overall; the automotive
sector is at only six percent of county, and three other sectors (electronics and appliance stores,
building materials and garden equipment and supplies, and miscellaneous store retailers) are at
less than half of countywide per capita sales levels. Four sectors (food and beverage stores,
gasoline stations, general merchandise stores, and food services and drinking places) have per
capita sales that exceed Santa Clara County levels.
In contrast to Cupertino, the RTA overall had much higher 2011 per capita sales ($15,807) than
either the county or the state. Only two major retail sectors, clothing and clothing accessory
stores and general merchandise stores, had per capita sales below countywide levels. This
indicates that overall, the RTA as a whole has a strong retail sector with a broad range of
shopping opportunities accessible to Cupertino residents.
7 This category includes all types of restaurants, as well as catering services.
8 It is important to note this includes non-taxable sales.
GENERAL PLAN AMENDMENT – MARKET STUDY
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Table 13: Total Estimated 2011 Retail Sales
Sales in 2013 $000 (a)RetailSanta Clara
CupertinoTrade AreaCountyCalifornia
Motor Vehicle and Parts Dealers$8,000$1,968,000$4,199,000$85,256,000
Furniture and Home Furnishings Stores$14,000$180,000$516,000$10,476,000
Electronics and Appliance Stores$14,000$474,000$1,200,000$15,105,000
Bldg. Matrl. and Garden Equip. and Supplies$13,000$572,000$1,604,000$29,169,000
Food and Beverage Stores$163,000$1,506,000$4,102,000$81,925,000
Health and Personal Care Stores$34,000$412,000$1,135,000$25,280,000
Gasoline Stations$52,000$671,000$1,534,000$41,495,000
Clothing and Clothing Accessories Stores$40,000$576,000$2,105,000$33,993,000
Sporting Goods, Hobby, Book, and Music Stores$16,000$314,000$586,000$8,968,000
General Merchandise Stores$126,000$870,000$2,818,000$60,903,000
Miscellaneous Store Retailers$2,000$237,000$555,000$11,385,000
Food Services and Drinking Places$133,000$1,305,000$3,697,000$63,640,000
Retail Outlets Total $615,000$9,085,000$24,051,000$467,595,000
Sales per Capita in 2013 $ RetailSanta Clara
CupertinoTrade AreaCountyCalifornia
Motor Vehicle and Parts Dealers$136$3,424$2,340$2,278
Furniture and Home Furnishings Stores$239$313$288$280
Electronics and Appliance Stores$239$825$669$404
Bldg. Matrl. and Garden Equip. and Supplies$222$995$894$779
Food and Beverage Stores$2,778$2,620$2,286$2,189
Health and Personal Care Stores$580$717$633$675
Gasoline Stations$886$1,167$855$1,109
Clothing and Clothing Accessories Stores$682$1,002$1,173$908
Sporting Goods, Hobby, Book, and Music Stores$273$546$327$240
General Merchandise Stores$2,148$1,514$1,570$1,627
Miscellaneous Store Retailers$34$412$309$304
Food Services and Drinking Places$2,267$2,271$2,060$1,700
Retail Outlets Total $10,483$15,807$13,404$12,493
2011 Population (b)58,665574,7411,794,33737,427,946
Notes:
Sales estimates were initially generated using 2011 Zip Code and County Business Patterns employment data along with per-
employee sales data by detailed NAICS code from the 2007 Economic Census. These numbers by major category above were then
cross-checked against SBOE data and 2007 Economic Census data where available to confirm, with adjustments made as indicated
by inconsistencies between the sources. Because of differences in categorization schemes, data by category may not be directly
comparable to SBOE numbers presented elsewhere. 2011 represents most recent data available at time of analysis. Cupertino data
based on Zip Codes, and includes some areas outside the city; however, these areas are largely unpopulated. RTA data also based
on Zip Codes per discussion in text.
(a) Retail sales have been adjusted to 2013 dollars based on the Bay Area and California Consumer Price Index calculated by the
California Department of Industrial Relations (based on data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics) for California, and the Bay Area
Consumer Price Index from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics for the city and county. Total sales estimates are rounded to nearest
million $.
(b) Population from CA State Dept. of Finance, except for Retail Trade Area. RTA population is based on Nielsen estimates for 2010
and 2013, assuming constant percentage growth over the period.
Sources: 2010 U.S. Census; U.S. Census of Retail Trade, 2007; Zip Code and County Business Patterns, 2010; CA Dept. of Industrial
Relations; U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics; Nielsen MarketPlace; BAE, 2013.
GENERAL PLAN AMENDMENT – MARKET STUDY
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Trends in Retail Sales
The following section presents historic data on retail sales by major store/outlet category, to
supplement the single-year estimate provided in the previous section and provide an overview
of longer-term trends. This summary relies on taxable sales data published by SBOE for
Cupertino, Santa Clara County, and California.9 All data are presented in constant 2013 dollars,
based on the Bay Area and California Consumer Price Indexes. The following trends discussion
covers only taxable sales, not total sales. For example, food purchases, prescription drugs, and
services (e.g., auto repair) are not taxable; as a result, the estimates shown here are lower than
provided by the Zip Code data discussed above and used below in the leakage analysis, which
estimates all sales in the retail sector. Nevertheless, the taxable sales data are the best available
indicator of retail sales trends by major store category over a period of years, even though they
do not provide complete coverage of all sales in the retail sector.
Because of the reclassification of businesses by SBOE beginning with 2009, it is difficult to
consistently track retail sales by major store category across a longer period with the published
data. Even a time series for overall retail sales is not necessarily accurate, as some businesses
were moved out of retail and into the “all other outlets” category. As a result, retail sales by
major category are discussed for the 2000 to 2008 period, and then separately for 2009 and
later. The most recently SBOE-published data for the county and state were from 2011; an
additional year (2012) was available for Cupertino based on data provided by City staff. This
section first presents data from the county and California to provide context for the subsequent
discussion of Cupertino itself.
California
As shown in Figure 4, taxable retail sales levels for California were relatively flat from 2000
through 2002. Statewide sales then increased gradually through 2005, with declines since that
year. Inflation-adjusted estimated sales of $386 billion for 2008 were below 2000 levels (also
inflation-adjusted), even as the population of the state increased by eight percent in the same
period. In 2009, total inflation-adjusted taxable retail sales for the state were reported at $337
billion, indicating a further decline. 10 Sales have increased modestly since that time, to $370
billion in 2011.
9 Because the RTA includes portions of cities (especially San Jose), there are no published SBOE data available.
10 The reclassification of businesses in 2009 makes it possible that some of the change between 2008 and 2009 is due
to businesses formerly classified as retail now being excluded from that group.
GENERAL PLAN AMENDMENT – MARKET STUDY
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Figure 4: California Taxable Retail Sales Trends, 2000-2011
-
5,000,000
10,000,000
15,000,000
20,000,000
25,000,000
30,000,000
35,000,000
40,000,000
45,000,000
50,000,000
$0
$50,000,000
$100,000,000
$150,000,000
$200,000,000
$250,000,000
$300,000,000
$350,000,000
$400,000,000
$450,000,000
$500,000,000
200020012002200320042005200620072008200920102011
Po
p
u
l
a
t
i
o
n
Ta
x
a
b
l
e
S
a
l
e
s
i
n
$
0
0
0
Total Taxable Retail Sales, 2000-2008 Total Taxable Retail Sales, 2009-2011 Population
Note: All sales shown are in 2013 dollars. For details, see Appendix B.
Source: BAE 2013, based on sources as noted in Appendix B.
GENERAL PLAN AMENDMENT – MARKET STUDY
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Santa Clara County
Unlike statewide trends, Santa Clara County showed a pattern of considerable taxable retail
sales declines early in the last decade during the “dot-com” bust which impacted the local
economy considerably. This was followed by a mid-decade increase that was sustained longer
than for the state, followed by another decline between 2007 and 2009 as the recession took
hold. Sales have rebounded since 2009, but on an inflation-adjusted basis, sales are still below
the 2000 levels of almost $27 billion in annual taxable retail sales. In 2011 taxable retail sales
were approximately $20 billion countywide (see Figure 5).11
Figure 5: Santa Clara County Taxable Retail Sales Trends, 2000-2011
0
500,000
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2,000,000
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$0
$5,000,000
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200020012002200320042005200620072008200920102011
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Total Taxable Retail Sales, 2000-2008 Total Taxable Retail Sales, 2009-2011 Population
Note: All sales shown are in 2013 dollars. For details, see Appendix B.
Source: BAE 2013, based on sources as noted in Appendix B.
Cupertino
From 2000 through 2003, taxable retail sales trends in Cupertino followed countywide trends,
with a sharp decline following the dot-com bust (see Figure 6). However, while county sales
overall began to recover in 2004, Cupertino’s taxable retail sales continued their slide through
2006. In 2007, Cupertino experienced an unusual jump in sales, with a decline again in 2008 to
$646 million, well below the $819 million in 2000 (all in 2013 dollars). The large increase in 2007
was concentrated in the other retail stores category, which at that time included computer and
software stores.12 Since 2008, taxable retail sales have been increasing in Cupertino at a faster
11 Because of the reclassification of businesses in 2009, it is possible that some of the change between 2008 and 2009
is due to businesses formerly classified as retail now being excluded from that group.
12 The SBOE reclassification in 2009 moved this retail store type into the home furnishings and appliances category.
Further discussion of the retail mix by major store category in Cupertino can be found below.
GENERAL PLAN AMENDMENT – MARKET STUDY
39
rate than statewide or countywide, with overall taxable retail sales reaching $752 million in 2012,
which is still below 2000 levels on an inflation-adjusted basis.
Figure 6: Cupertino Taxable Retail Sales Trends, 2000-2012
-
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
90,000
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$0
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2000200120022003200420052006200720082009201020112012
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Total Taxable Retail Sales, 2000-2008 Total Taxable Retail Sales, 2009-2012
Population
Note: All sales shown are in 2013 dollars. For details, see Appendix B.
Source: BAE 2013, based on sources as noted in Appendix B.
Much of the long-term decline in taxable retail sales was in the general merchandise store
sector (see Appendix B for detailed data by major sector). Between 2000 and 2008, this sector’s
sales declined by over 40 percent. While figures from 2009 and later are not directly comparable
to prior years (e.g., drug stores were moved from this category into other retail), the decline has
continued even as overall retail sales levels have recovered. The major stores in this sector
include Target and the three Vallco Shopping Mall anchor stores. Apparel stores, another
tenant typically found in fashion malls, have also seen a sales decline over time.
Sales in the automotive sector, while relatively small even in 2000, dropped 94 percent by 2012.
Food store sales have remained relatively stable over time, as grocery purchases as an everyday
need are less vulnerable to overall changes in the economy. The restaurant sector (food services
and drinking places) has fluctuated along with the overall economy over time, but has recovered
to higher-than-2000 sales levels.
GENERAL PLAN AMENDMENT – MARKET STUDY
40
Leakage Analysis
Overview of Methodology
Retail leakage and injection analysis compares actual retail sales in an area with some
benchmark that provides a measure of the potential sales generated by that area's residents
and workers. If sales levels are below the predicted level, the area may be able to support
increased sales, either through the opening of new outlets targeting those leakages or a
repositioning of existing outlets through changes in strategy and marketing, merchandise mix,
or store configuration such that they could capture a portion of that leakage.
A lower-than-predicted sales volume is a strong indicator that local consumers are buying
goods outside the area; thus, the sales are “leaking” out of the area. Conversely, if the area
shows more sales than would be expected from the area's characteristics, there are sales
“injections” into the area. Often, an injection of sales indicates that the area is serving as the
regional shopping destination for a broader area. On the other hand, if an area shows
substantial leakage, it may be due to the presence of a region-serving retail node outside but
near the area capturing those “leaked” sales.
There are a number of factors that can be used to predict sales levels, with the two most
important factors being the number of persons in the area and the disposable income available
to that population. Additional factors influencing retail spending in an area include household
type, age of population, number of workers in the area (i.e., daytime population), tourism
expenditures, tenure patterns (owner vs. renter), and cultural factors.
As noted above, Cupertino has overall per capita sales below county and statewide levels, while
the RTA has overall per capita sales above those levels. This alone, however, does not indicate
that the city is necessarily leaking sales to other locales, or that the RTA is capturing sales. For
example, resident and worker shopping patterns may vary due to consumer preferences as well
as the retail options available locally.
Retail Sales in Cupertino and the RTA
The estimated annual retail sales have been derived from Table 13 above, updated to 2013
estimates based on population growth, and are shown in Table 14 and Appendix C.
Retail Demand from Residents
To better determine the levels of leakages and injections for Cupertino and the RTA, this study
used Nielsen Retail Market Potential Opportunity Gap (RMP) information for the two
geographies and for Santa Clara County (to use for benchmarking purposes). This report
estimates retail demand based on the Consumer Expenditure Survey, a national survey
conducted for the Department of Labor Bureau of Labor Statistics by the U.S. Census Bureau
which measures consumer expenditures and provides data on differing spending patterns by
age, income, ethnicity, and other variables. This source information is converted to expected
GENERAL PLAN AMENDMENT – MARKET STUDY
41
expenditures by store type, to obtain an estimate of demand by retail store category. BAE
refined the RMP expenditure estimates based on actual expenditure patterns in Santa Clara
County as reflected in total retail sales by major store category. The resulting per capita
expenditure estimates are shown in Appendix C.
Retail Demand from Workers
In addition to the demand for retail goods generated by residents, persons working in a place
also generate demand due to purchases near their place of work, especially meals eaten during
the work day. When other shopping opportunities are also available nearby, workers often make
other purchases during the day, or on the way to or from their job.
Cupertino has a large employment base, with a net inflow of workers into the city, since there
are more persons working in the city than working residents. Aside from this net inflow, worker
expenditures are basically a wash; demand generated by workers living in the city is already
accounted for in the resident demand estimate, and the expenditures of workers commuting
into the city are balanced by the expenditures of those commuting out.
However, the RTA shows a net outflow of workers, with less persons working in the area than
working residents. This would indicate also a net outflow of retail expenditures, as RTA
residents would be buying retail goods outside the area at a greater rate than the expenditures
of the workers coming in.
Appendix F presents an estimate of the potential worker expenditures near the place of work
for the net inflow of workers into Cupertino and the RTA. This estimate is derived based on
Office-Worker Retail Spending in the Digital Age, based on a national survey of office workers
conducted in 2011 by the International Council of Shopping Centers, as shown in Appendix E.
This survey gathered information on weekly expenditures, which have been converted to annual
expenditures and inflated to 2013 dollars.13
Overall, the net potential worker expenditures for Cupertino are estimated at approximately
$66 million annually. While this is a substantial number, the leakage analysis estimates potential
resident expenditures of nearly $900 million annually. For the RTA, the net outflow of workers is
estimated to result in an outflow of retail spending totaling approximately $78 million annually.
Once again, this is a substantial number, but overall potential resident expenditures for the RTA
are approximately $8.4 billion annually.
13 While not all workers in Cupertino are office-based, many are, and the use of this survey as a proxy for all workers is
reasonable. While some workers may have lower incomes and thus lower expenditures (e.g., retail/service workers),
Cupertino office workers likely have relatively high incomes so overall the expenditures may balance out.
GENERAL PLAN AMENDMENT – MARKET STUDY
42
Once estimates of both resident and worker expenditures are combined, overall demand can
then be compared to the estimated 2013 sales by major store category for Cupertino and the
RTA. The results of this leakage analysis are summarized in Table 14, with detail on this analysis
provided in Appendix C.
Table 14: Summary of Leakage Analysis
Cupertino 2013 Total Annual 2013Injection/
Retail Sales and Sales Potential in $000 Total Leakage
EstimatedEstimatedEstimatedEstimatedInjection/as % of
SalesResidentWorkerTotal Potential (Leakage)Potential
Store Category in AreaExpendituresExpendituresExpenditures$000Sales
Motor Vehicle and Parts Dealers$8,130$138,535$0$138,535 ($130,405)-94%
Furniture and Home Furnishings Stores$14,228$21,031$0$21,031 ($6,803)-32%
Electronics and Appliance Stores$14,228$48,657$4,700$53,357 ($39,130)-73%
Bldg. Matrl. and Garden Equip. and Supplies$13,212$63,648$0$63,648 ($50,436)-79%
Food and Beverage Stores$165,653$147,859$11,300$159,159$6,4944%
Health and Personal Care Stores$34,553$40,941$4,000$44,941 ($10,388)-23%
Gasoline Stations$52,847$54,756$0$54,756 ($1,909)-3%
Clothing and Clothing Accessories Stores$40,651$81,772$6,000$87,772 ($47,121)-54%
Sporting Goods, Hobby, Book, & Music Stores$16,260$23,440$1,800$25,240 ($8,980)-36%
General Merchandise Stores$128,051$105,661$17,100$122,761$5,2904%
Miscellaneous Store Retailers$2,033$20,672$5,800$26,472 ($24,439)-92%
Food Services and Drinking Places$135,165$143,690$15,100$158,790 ($23,625)-15%
Total$625,012$890,661$65,800$956,461 ($331,450)-35%
Retail Trade Area 2013 Total Annual 2013Injection/
Retail Sales and Sales Potential in $000 Total Leakage
EstimatedEstimatedEstimatedEstimatedInjection/as % of
SalesResidentWorkerTotal Potential (Leakage)Potential
Store Category in AreaExpendituresExpendituresExpenditures$000Sales
Motor Vehicle and Parts Dealers$2,009,792$1,442,285$0$1,442,285$567,50739%
Furniture and Home Furnishings Stores$183,822$194,905$0$194,905 ($11,083)-6%
Electronics and Appliance Stores$484,066$448,170 ($5,600)$442,570$41,4959%
Bldg. Matrl. and Garden Equip. and Supplies$584,147$592,208$0$592,208 ($8,061)-1%
Food and Beverage Stores$1,537,981$1,450,188 ($13,400)$1,436,788$101,1937%
Health and Personal Care Stores$420,749$405,514 ($4,700)$400,814$19,9355%
Gasoline Stations$685,249$552,556$0$552,556$132,69324%
Clothing and Clothing Accessories Stores$588,232$756,103 ($7,200)$748,903 ($160,671)-21%
Sporting Goods, Hobby, Book, & Music Stores$320,668$215,083 ($2,200)$212,883$107,78551%
General Merchandise Stores$888,475$1,006,780 ($20,300)$986,480 ($98,005)-10%
Miscellaneous Store Retailers$242,033$201,196 ($6,900)$194,296$47,73725%
Food Services and Drinking Places$1,332,713$1,375,340 ($18,000)$1,357,340 ($24,628)-2%
Total $9,277,926$8,640,329 ($78,300)$8,562,029$715,8978%
All sales and leakages are in 2013 dollars. For detail on methodology and sources, see Appendices D and I.
Sources: BAE, based on sources as noted in Appendix D.
GENERAL PLAN AMENDMENT – MARKET STUDY
43
Cupertino Leakage Analysis
As indicated by low overall per capita sales levels, Cupertino shows leakages of sales in most
major store categories, as shown in Figure 7. Leakages are especially high for motor vehicle and
parts dealers. Only two major categories, food and beverage stores and general merchandise
stores, have injections of sales; general merchandise stores and food and beverage stores both
show sales at four percent above the levels predicted by the combined estimated expenditures
of city residents and the net inflow of workers.
The high leakages for the motor vehicle sector are directly related to the lack of new and used
car dealers in Cupertino; the large cluster of auto dealers on Stevens Creek Boulevard in San
Jose attracts shoppers from Cupertino and elsewhere, limiting the ability of Cupertino to
capture more sales in this sector even if land were available to develop an auto retail
mall/district.
The injections of sales for general merchandise, where the sales are primarily derived from
Target and the three Vallco Shopping Mall anchors, is an indicator that even though the center
is somewhat dated and underperforming relative to more upscale traditional malls such as
Valley Fair or Stanford Mall, the anchor stores still function as a regional draw pulling shoppers
in from outside the city, even though much of the inline store space in the mall is vacant.
The food and beverage store injections may result from the easy access and proximity to
residents of other nearby cities for several of Cupertino’s major supermarkets, including both
Ranch 99 stores and the Safeway currently being reconstructed; these stores are either on or
very close to Cupertino’s borders and easily accessible to non-Cupertino residents. The other
Asian-oriented food markets such as Marukai and Marina Foods may also act as regional draws.
While the leakages of sales for motor vehicle-related retail stand out for their size, there are also
very high leakages of estimated Cupertino resident sales in several other categories. Including
the motor vehicle sector these categories cover stores selling what are commonly referred to as
“comparison goods” which are goods that consumers do not purchase on a frequent (e.g., daily
or weekly) basis, and for which consumers are more likely to compare price, quality, and
features than they might for everyday items. The types of stores selling these goods often fit the
definition of “destination” retail, where the decision to go to the store is based on a desire or
need to spend more time shopping, and where the shopping “experience” is key and may
involve an entertainment or dining component. Shoppers are often willing to travel a greater
distance for this kind of shopping, at centers such as a mall, an outlet center, an upscale
downtown area with a unique array of shops, or a large store such as a Bass Pro Outlet sporting
goods store.
The specific categories other than motor-vehicle-related retail showing leakages of 50 percent
or greater are electronics and appliance stores; building materials and garden equipment and
supplies stores, clothing and clothing accessories stores, and miscellaneous store retailers, a
GENERAL PLAN AMENDMENT – MARKET STUDY
44
catch-all category that includes a variety of retail outlet types including florists, office supply
stores, pet stores, and gift shops.
The limited local sales in the building materials group are linked to the lack of a major home
improvement store or hardware store such as Home Depot, Lowe’s, or Orchard Supply
Hardware in the city (and the presence of a Home Depot just south of the city on South De Anza
Boulevard in San Jose).
There are also no major electronics or appliance stores such as Best Buy or Fry’s in Cupertino,
although Sears (in the general merchandise store category) carries a large variety of appliances
and may capture a larger share of resident expenditures that would otherwise occur in stores
dedicated to electronics and appliances.
The limited clothing and apparel-related store sales is due in part to the lack of destination
retail centers in Cupertino, with the exception of the Vallco Shopping Mall. That center has
suffered from competition with Valley Fair and other centers such that an entire level of the
standalone smaller shops has been closed off, in turn limiting the ability of the center to reach a
critical mass of shoppers necessary to support apparel retailers necessary to attract more
shoppers. The lack of apparel-related retail may also lead to shoppers substituting purchases of
clothing at the three large general merchandise stores in the city, which could lead to some of
the calculated “injections” in that major retail store category.
In summary, Cupertino has relatively strong sales in stores selling everyday items, such as food
stores and drug stores. General merchandise stores, which sell a mix of everyday and
comparison goods, are performing well due to the presence of three mall department stores
and one discount department store. Stores specializing in other types of comparison goods,
however, are lacking in the city; with the exception of the Vallco Shopping Mall, most of the
retail in the city is for every day, convenience-oriented shopping. None of the shopping centers
in Cupertino are “lifestyle” centers, representing the recent trend in retailing toward combining
upscale retail, dining, and entertainment in one center, such as Santana Row nearby in San
Jose, to create a more interesting shopping destination and experience. The Vallco Shopping
Mall represents a mixed picture for Cupertino. Its anchor department stores and entertainment
options appear to draw shoppers to the city, but the poor performance of the remainder of the
mall contributes to Cupertino’s weakness in comparison goods shopping and destination retail.
The degree to which Cupertino can increase sales in the categories evaluated in this section of
the report will depend on the specific location and site characteristics and location of new retail
development and general competitive forces (such as location of competitors). These issues
are more fully developed and analyzed in the Retail Strategy Study.
GENERAL PLAN AMENDMENT – MARKET STUDY
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Figure 7: Cupertino Retail Sales Leakages by Major Retail Store Category
Motor Vehicle and Parts Dealers
Bldg. Matrl. and Garden Equip. and Supplies
Clothing and Clothing Accessories Stores
Electronics and Appliance Stores
Miscellaneous Store Retailers
Food Services and Drinking Places
Health and Personal Care Stores
Sporting Goods, Hobby, Book, & Music Stores
Furniture and Home Furnishings Stores
Gasoline Stations
General Merchandise Stores
Food and Beverage Stores
Annual Leakages/Injections
Cupertino Retail Sales Leakages
←Leakages Injections →
Motor Vehicle and Parts Dealers
Miscellaneous Store Retailers
Bldg. Matrl. and Garden Equip. and Supplies
Electronics and Appliance Stores
Clothing and Clothing Accessories Stores
Sporting Goods, Hobby, Book, & Music Stores
Furniture and Home Furnishings Stores
Health and Personal Care Stores
Food Services and Drinking Places
Gasoline Stations
Food and Beverage Stores
General Merchandise Stores
Annual Leakages/Injections as % of Potential Sales
Cupertino Leakages as % of Total Potential Sales
←Leakages Injections →
Source: BAE Urban Economics, based on Table 14; sources as noted in Appendix C and Appendix D.
GENERAL PLAN AMENDMENT – MARKET STUDY
46
Retail Trade Area Leakage Analysis
Unlike Cupertino, the larger RTA has limited leakages of retail sales (see Figure 8). The largest
leakage by percent of total sales is for clothing and clothing accessory stores, with leakages of
only 21 percent, in contrast to Cupertino where several major retail categories showed leakage
of 30 percent or more of potential sales. Only one other category, general merchandise stores,
shows substantial leakages (at 10 percent).
The RTA shows injections of sales of 20 percent or greater for four categories: sporting goods,
hobby, book and music stores; motor vehicle and parts dealers; gasoline stations; and
miscellaneous store retailers. The RTA is not bounded by bodies of water or mountains except
to the west, so these sectors are likely drawing additional shoppers from beyond the RTA
boundaries. In particular, the concentration of motor vehicle dealers along Stevens Creek
Boulevard in San Jose and Santa Clara is a major regional draw, leading to the high per capita
sales injections for the RTA as well as the strong leakages from Cupertino itself, which has
almost no motor-vehicle related retail.
Overall, the strong sales in the RTA, where even sectors showing leakage have hundreds of
millions of dollars in estimated sales, indicate a broad array of retail shopping options are
available in nearby communities easily accessible to Cupertino residents. In turn, while the
analysis shows that Cupertino residents are shopping outside the city itself, the strong regional
retail environment constrains opportunities for additional capture of resident spending through
new retail development in Cupertino. Notwithstanding the foregoing, the degree to which
Cupertino can capture additional sales in the Retail Trade area will depend greatly on whether
the Vallco Shopping Center can be repositioned or redeveloped to improve its performance in
the Retail Trade Area. Strategies to reposition Vallco are identified and evaluated in the
accompanying Retail Strategy Study.
GENERAL PLAN AMENDMENT – MARKET STUDY
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Figure 8: RTA Retail Sales Leakages by Major Retail Store Category
Clothing and Clothing Accessories Stores
General Merchandise Stores
Food Services and Drinking Places
Furniture and Home Furnishings Stores
Bldg. Matrl. and Garden Equip. and Supplies
Health and Personal Care Stores
Electronics and Appliance Stores
Miscellaneous Store Retailers
Food and Beverage Stores
Sporting Goods, Hobby, Book, & Music Stores
Gasoline Stations
Motor Vehicle and Parts Dealers
Annual Leakages/Injections
Retail Trade Area Retail Sales Leakages
←Leakages Injections →
Clothing and Clothing Accessories Stores
General Merchandise Stores
Furniture and Home Furnishings Stores
Food Services and Drinking Places
Bldg. Matrl. and Garden Equip. and Supplies
Health and Personal Care Stores
Food and Beverage Stores
Electronics and Appliance Stores
Gasoline Stations
Miscellaneous Store Retailers
Motor Vehicle and Parts Dealers
Sporting Goods, Hobby, Book, & Music Stores
Annual Leakages/Injections as % of Potential Sales
RTA Leakages as % of Total Potential Sales
←Leakages Injections →
Source: BAE Urban Economics, based on Table 14; sources as noted in Appendix C and Appendix D.
GENERAL PLAN AMENDMENT – MARKET STUDY
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Comparative Retail Sales by Detailed Store Category
While the leakage analysis above provides key findings regarding the retail market in Cupertino
and the RTA, the more detailed approach drills down to provide additional information on
particular subcategories that may have weak or strong sales relative to the population base. The
following analysis drills down to more detailed store types by NAICS14 code, by comparing
annual per capita sales for Cupertino and the RTA with Santa Clara County overall.
This analysis is not a more detailed version of the leakage analysis itself, but a slightly different
type of analysis. This analysis includes no adjustments for local demographics (e.g., high
incomes and home ownership) as provided by benchmarking based on the RMP report from
Nielsen. The ability of consumers to substitute between store types and the quality of the RMP
data do not reasonably allow per capita sales adjustment factors for these more detailed store
types.
The following analysis highlights (in bold typeface and boxes) a number of specific
underperforming retail sectors in Cupertino, which may represent specific opportunities to
expand retail in Cupertino and the RTA. As noted in the tables, some key specific store types
with very low sales include motor vehicle dealers, electronics stores, computer and software
stores, home improvement centers and hardware stores, apparel stores, and warehouse club
stores.
For the purposes of this discussion, per capita sales at less than 50 percent of countywide levels
are defined as “very low.” Since the county has lower overall income levels and lower expected
resident expenditures than either of the two study geographies, this is a strong indicator of
subcategories where there is a substantial gap between sales and expenditures in the city
and/or the RTA. The following discussion is organized by major retail category as shown in the
leakage analysis above.
Motor Vehicle and Parts Dealers. Cupertino has almost no motor-vehicle-related retail, and
thus most resident expenditures are leaking out of the city. 15 However, the City does not have
suitable sites for the major sales subcategory, new car dealers, so with the exception perhaps of
an auto parts store, additional capture in this overall category in Cupertino is unlikely. The RTA
shows generally strong sales for this grouping, especially for vehicle dealers, with the exception
of RV dealers. This indicates that the larger RTA is well-served.
14 North American Industrial Classification System, a coding system providing a consistent framework for analyzing
the economy and the different industries that are part of it.
15 The sources for these tables can be found in Appendix C and Appendix D.
GENERAL PLAN AMENDMENT – MARKET STUDY
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Table 15: Detail on Motor Vehicle Sector Sales
Cupertino Retail Trade Area
2010 Estimated Annual Per Capita Sales in 2013 $Per CapitaAs %Per CapitaAs %Santa Clara
Salesof CountySalesof CountyCounty
New car dealers $00%$3,081167%$1,845
Used car dealers $00%$85222%$39
Recreational vehicle dealers $00%$00%$17
Motorcycle, ATV, and personal watercraft dealers $00%$4189%$47
Boat dealers $00%$11437%$3
All other motor vehicle dealers $00%$14288%$5
Automotive parts and accessories stores $00%$9881%$122
Tire dealers $123 137%$94 104%$90
Motor Vehicle and Parts Dealers $123 $3,425 $2,165
Furniture and Home Furnishings Stores. Despite leakage in this overall category, Cupertino
shows strong sales in furniture stores, but has very low sales in the other subcategories, leading
to the overall leakage in this major category. The only RTA subcategory with extremely low sales
is window treatment stores, which make up a very small percentage of overall sales countywide.
Table 16: Detail on Furniture and Home Furnishings Store Sales
Cupertino Retail Trade Area
2010 Estimated Annual Per Capita Sales in 2013 $Per CapitaAs %Per CapitaAs %Santa Clara
Salesof CountySalesof CountyCounty
Furniture stores $164153%$117110%$107
Floor covering stores $00%$3085%$35
Window treatment stores $00%$19%$6
All other home furnishings stores $68 53%$165 129%$128
Furniture and Home Furnishings Stores $232 $313 $276
Electronics and Appliances Stores. Cupertino has very low sales in three of the four
subcategories for electronics and appliance stores, including radio, television, and electronics
stores, computer and software stores, and camera and photographic supplies stores.
Table 17: Detail on Electronics and Appliances Store Sales
Cupertino Retail Trade Area
2010 Estimated Annual Per Capita Sales in 2013 $Per CapitaAs %Per CapitaAs %Santa Clara
Salesof CountySalesof CountyCounty
Household appliance stores $94198%$49102%$47
Radio, television, and other electronics stores $8936%$254102%$249
Computer and software stores $278%$510144%$355
Camera and photographic supplies stores $0 0%$12 81%$15
Electronics and Appliance Stores $210 $825 $666
Building Materials, and Garden Equipment and Supplies. With the exception of the nursery,
garden center, and farm supply subcategory, Cupertino has very limited sales in this category,
with no estimated sales shown for home centers (e.g., Home Depot), paint and wallpaper
stores, hardware stores (e.g., Orchard Supply Hardware), or outdoor power equipment stores. In
contrast, per capita sales in the RTA for all subcategories is above countywide levels.
GENERAL PLAN AMENDMENT – MARKET STUDY
50
Table 18: Detail on Building Materials Sector Sales
Cupertino Retail Trade Area
2010 Estimated Annual Per Capita Sales in 2013 $Per CapitaAs %Per CapitaAs %Santa Clara
Salesof CountySalesof CountyCounty
Home centers $00%$365103%$355
Paint and wallpaper stores $00%$36165%$22
Hardware stores $00%$116110%$105
Other building material dealers $144%$385127%$303
Outdoor power equipment stores $00%$21194%$11
Nursery, garden center, and farm supply stores $208 441%$73 155%$47
Bldg. Matrl. and Garden Equip. and Supplies $222 $995 $844
Food and Beverage Stores. While Cupertino shows injection in this overall category, this is
largely due to strong sales in supermarkets and other grocery (except convenience) stores, the
subcategory that accounts for most of the sales in the overall food and beverage store sector.
Cupertino, however, has very low or no sales in the meat markets, fish and seafood markets, and
all other specialty food store subcategories. Per capita sales in meat markets and fish and
seafood markets for the entire RTA are also very low. This indicates that despite overall
injections of sales for the food and beverage store major sector, there may be opportunities for
this category in some of these smaller market niches in Cupertino, which could perhaps also
attract shoppers from elsewhere in the RTA.
Table 19: Detail on Food and Beverage Store Sales
Cupertino Retail Trade Area
2010 Estimated Annual Per Capita Sales in 2013 $Per CapitaAs %Per CapitaAs %Santa Clara
Salesof CountySalesof CountyCounty
Supermarkets and other grocery (except convenience) st $2,911145%$2,304114%$2,013
Convenience stores$87100%$102117%$87
Meat markets$00%$631%$18
Fish and seafood markets$00%$00%$3
Fruit and vegetable markets$46271%$40236%$17
Baked goods stores$44534%$10119%$8
Confectionery and nut stores$1084%$28228%$12
All other specialty food stores$219%$664%$9
Beer, wine, and liquor stores$95 92%$126 121%$104
Food and Beverage Stores $3,196 $2,620 $2,271
Health and Personal Care Stores. This category is dominated by pharmacies and drug stores,
and shows modest leakages for Cupertino, which has few major chain pharmacies. The City has
very low per capita sales relative to Santa Clara County for cosmetics, beauty supplies, and
perfume stores, and food (health) supplement stores. For the RTA, where sales in the area are
approximately in balance with demand, there are no subcategories with very low per capita
sales relative to the county.
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Table 20: Detail on Health and Personal Care Store Sales
Cupertino Retail Trade Area
2010 Estimated Annual Per Capita Sales in 2013 $Per CapitaAs %Per CapitaAs %Santa Clara
Salesof CountySalesof CountyCounty
Pharmacies and drug stores $41975%$54898%$559
Cosmetics, beauty supplies, and perfume stores $1219%$5688%$64
Optical goods stores $48160%$45153%$30
Food (health) supplement stores $1249%$2083%$25
All other health and personal care stores $22 74%$46 154%$30
Health and Personal Care Stores $513 $716 $707
Clothing and Clothing Accessories Stores. Overall, Cupertino has very weak per capita sales
in this major retail category, and in most of its subcategories (see Table 21). The RTA, while
showing some leakage overall for this category (see discussion above), has very low per capita
sales only for clothing accessories stores, one of the smaller subcategories. The very low sales
for Cupertino are an indicator that despite the fact that these kinds of stores are often found in
shopping malls, the Vallco Shopping Mall is very weak in apparel-related sales.
Table 21: Detail on Clothing and Clothing Accessory Store Sales
Cupertino Retail Trade Area
2010 Estimated Annual Per Capita Sales in 2013 $Per CapitaAs %Per CapitaAs %Santa Clara
Salesof CountySalesof CountyCounty
Men's clothing stores $00%$1746%$36
Women's clothing stores $53%$165101%$163
Children's and infants' clothing stores $1431%$62141%$44
Family clothing stores $6514%$37178%$474
Clothing accessories stores $919%$2045%$45
Other clothing stores $94172%$69126%$55
Shoe stores $12177%$12178%$156
Jewelry stores $278256%$153141%$109
Luggage and leather goods stores $0 0%$25 169%$14
Clothing and Clothing Accessories Stores $585 $1,003 $1,097
Sporting Goods, Hobby, Book, and Music Stores. Among this group of store types,
Cupertino only shows very low per capita sales for book stores, news dealers and newsstands,
and prerecorded tape, compact disc, and record stores. These store type subcategories have all
been impacted by online sales as well as e-readers, (e.g., Amazon, and iTunes) and thus do not
represent long-term opportunities for recapture of sales in Cupertino. The RTA has no
subcategories here with very low per capita sales, and in fact shows substantial sales injections
for the overall category.
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Table 22: Detail on Sporting Goods, Hobby, Book, and Music Store Sales
Cupertino Retail Trade Area
2010 Estimated Annual Per Capita Sales in 2013 $Per CapitaAs %Per CapitaAs %Santa Clara
Salesof CountySalesof CountyCounty
Sporting goods stores $8261%$276207%$134
Hobby, toy, and game stores $101163%$96156%$62
Sewing, needlework, and piece goods stores $56430%$44337%$13
Musical instrument and supplies stores $2697%$37139%$26
Book stores $1215%$7798%$78
News dealers and newsstands $00%$252%$4
Prerecorded tape, compact disc, and record stores $0 0%$15 223%$7
Sporting Goods, Hobby, Book, and Music Stores $276 $547 $323
General Merchandise Stores. Cupertino shows injections of sales in this major category, due
to the three Vallco Shopping Mall anchor stores and the Target. Per capita sales by subcategory
show the key role of the Vallco anchors, with extremely high per capita sales for the department
stores (excluding discount department stores) subcategory. Cupertino shows no per capita
sales in the warehouse clubs and supercenters subcategory, due to the lack of a Costco or
similar store, and in the all other general merchandise stores subcategory, which includes
miscellaneous types of variety stores and typically accounts for only a small portion of general
merchandise stores overall. The RTA shows no subcategories with very low per capita sales.
Table 23: Detail on General Merchandise Store Sales
Cupertino Retail Trade Area
2010 Estimated Annual Per Capita Sales in 2013 $Per CapitaAs %Per CapitaAs %Santa Clara
Salesof CountySalesof CountyCounty
Department stores (except discount department stores)$1,488491%$443146%$303
Discount department stores $660113%$52790%$584
Warehouse clubs and supercenters $00%$47587%$546
All other general merchandise stores $0 0%$68 103%$66
General Merchandise Stores $2,148 $1,513 $1,499
Miscellaneous Store Retailers. Cupertino has very low per capita sales across most of the store
type subcategories comprising this catch-all major category, which is reflected in the high
leakage for the overall category. The exceptions are for pet and pet supply stores and tobacco
stores. Many of these store types occupy narrow market niches with very limited sales.
Table 24: Detail on Miscellaneous Retail Store Sales
Cupertino Retail Trade Area
2010 Estimated Annual Per Capita Sales in 2013 $Per CapitaAs %Per CapitaAs %Santa Clara
Salesof CountySalesof CountyCounty
Florists $331%$18167%$11
Office supplies and stationery stores $00%$108153%$71
Gift, novelty, and souvenir stores $2040%$81160%$51
Used merchandise stores $38%$3576%$45
Pet and pet supplies stores $68117%$107184%$58
Art dealers $00%$129%$4
Manufactured (mobile) home dealers $00%$1993%$21
Tobacco stores $1061%$1481%$17
All other miscellaneous store retailers (except tobacc $5 13%$29 71%$40
Miscellaneous Store Retailers $111 $412 $317
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Food Services and Drinking Places. Cupertino’s sales in this major category are nearly in
balance with estimated resident expenditures, and only one subcategory, food service
contractors shows very low per capita sales. Full-service restaurants, which are responsible for
the highest proportion of per capita sales countywide in the overall major category, have strong
per capita sales in Cupertino. The RTA has no subcategories with very low per capita sales.
Table 25: Detail on Food Services and Drinking Places Sales
Cupertino Retail Trade Area
2010 Estimated Annual Per Capita Sales in 2013 $Per CapitaAs %Per CapitaAs %Santa Clara
Salesof CountySalesof CountyCounty
Full-service restaurants $1,456171%$942111%$849
Limited-service restaurants $47674%$692108%$641
Cafeterias, grill buffets, and buffets $29101%$31109%$29
Snack and nonalcoholic beverage bars $356201%$208117%$177
Food service contractors $3921%$314168%$187
Caterers $43138%$48157%$31
Mobile food services $3291%$2149%$1
Drinking places (alcoholic beverages)$3 8%$33 74%$44
Food Services and Drinking Places $2,405 $2,271 $1,959
The data presented above provide a basis for an estimate of potential market support for new
retail development, which is presented in a subsequent section of this report.
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54
REAL ESTATE MARKET TRENDS
This section provides an overview and analysis of current real estate market conditions in
Cupertino, Santa Clara County, and the Bay Area. The overview presents data on the existing
inventory, lease rates, and occupancy levels among residential, office, research and
development (R&D), industrial, and retail properties. The information provided in the following
sections was obtained from private data vendors, brokerage firm reports, and online property
listings. These data sources are supplemented by quantitative and qualitative information on
local real estate conditions obtained through interviews with local property managers and
brokers. Each section on current real estate market conditions is followed by an overview of
planned and proposed residential, office, R&D, retail, and mixed-use developments in
Cupertino. The following section concludes with an evaluation of the total new square feet or
units that would be supportable in Cupertino by 2020 and 2035.
Residential Market
Cupertino has a strong residential market, due largely to the high quality of the local school
districts and the presence of Apple Inc. and other high-tech employers. High demand for
homes and apartments in Cupertino has created a housing market characterized by high home
sale and rental prices, which were impacted relatively mildly during the recent recession.
Market Area. As discussed in a previous section, the school districts that serve Cupertino (the
Cupertino Union School District and the Fremont Union High School District) are considered
among the best in California, which leads to high demand for housing in these districts among
families with school-aged children. Interviews with residential real estate brokers in Cupertino
confirm the positive role local public schools have in supporting the housing market. Since the
schools are a significant factor in attracting residential demand, Cupertino is in a market area
that is largely defined by the boundaries of these school districts, which include portions of
Sunnyvale, Los Altos, Saratoga, Santa Clara, and west San Jose. In addition to the high-quality
school districts, Cupertino’s proximity to high-tech employment contributes to the high
demand for housing in the city. Apple Inc. is a primary factor in attracting residents that are
seeking homes near high-tech employment centers to Cupertino, and other large and small
tech companies in neighboring communities lead to additional residential demand in and
around Cupertino.
Existing Inventory and Recent Construction
Existing Inventory. Compared to Santa Clara County and the Bay Area, Cupertino has a larger
share of single-family homes and a smaller share of multi-family housing. According to ACS
data, 70 percent of housing units in Cupertino were single family homes (both detached and
attached) and 30 percent were multifamily units, while the proportion of multifamily units was 33
percent in Santa Clara County and 35 percent throughout the Bay Area. Multifamily housing in
GENERAL PLAN AMENDMENT – MARKET STUDY
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Cupertino is most commonly provided in small buildings containing three to 19 units, which
accounted for 17 percent of the Cupertino housing stock.
Table 26: Housing Units by Type of Structure (a)
Santa Clara
Type of ResidenceCupertinoCountyBay Area (b)
Single Family Detached56.1%53.6%53.4%
Single Family Attached13.6%10.1%9.1%
Multifamily 2 Units1.7%1.9%3.8%
Multifamily 3-19 Units16.7%16.8%18.0%
Multifamily 20-49 Units2.1%5.2%5.6%
Multifamily 50+9.4%9.3%8.1%
Mobile Home/Other (c)0.3%3.1%2.1%
Total 100.0%100.0%100.0%
Single Family Housing Units69.7%63.8%62.5%
Multifamily Housing Units 30.0%33.2%35.4%
Notes:
(a) The American Community Survey (ACS) publishes demographic
estimates based on statistical sampling conducted between 2009-2011.
(b) The nine-county Bay Area includes Alameda, Contra Costa, Marin,
Napa, San Francisco, San Mateo, Santa Clara, Solano, and Sonoma
counties.
(c) Includes standard mobile homes as well as boats, RVs, vans, and other
vehicles that serve as a primary residence.
Sources: ACS, 2009-2011; BAE, 2013.
Tenure. Cupertino has a slightly higher proportion of owner-occupied households than Santa
Clara County and the Bay Area. In 2010, 63 percent of all Cupertino households were owner-
occupied, compared to 58 percent of Santa Clara County households and 56 percent of Bay
Area households. In all three geographies, the proportion of renter-occupied units increased
slightly (one to two percentage points) between 2000 and 2010.
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Table 27: Household Tenure, 2000-2010
2000 2010
Cupertino NumberPercentNumberPercent
Owners 11,58363.6%12,62762.6%
Renters 6,621 36.4%7,554 37.4%
Total 18,204100.0%20,181100.0%
Santa Clara County
Owners 338,66159.8%348,29857.6%
Renters 227,202 40.2%255,906 42.4%
Total 565,863100.0%604,204100.0%
Bay Area (a)
Owners 1,423,95857.7%1,465,36256.2%
Renters 1,042,061 42.3%1,142,661 43.8%
Total 2,466,019100.0%2,608,023100.0%
Notes:
(a) The nine-county Bay Area includes Alameda, Contra Costa, Marin,
Napa, San Francisco, San Mateo, Santa Clara, Solano, and Sonoma
counties.
Sources: U.S. Census 2000 & 2010; BAE, 2013.
Recent Construction Trends. Residential building permit data provided by the U.S. Census
Bureau demonstrate that both Cupertino and Santa Clara County experienced a decline in
building permit activity in 2009 –the bottom of the Great Recession—followed by a moderate
recovery in the subsequent three years. (See Figure 9). In Cupertino, 2006 was the most active
year in the past decade with respect to residential building permits, with a total of 126 permits
issued. Building permit activity remained strong through 2008, then decreased to 21 units in
2009 as building activity decreased during the recession. Building permit activity increased
during 2011 and 2012, but nonetheless lagged pre-recession levels.
Figure 9: Residential Units Permitted, 2003-2012
Source: US Census Building Permit Data, 2013; BAE, 2013.
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Residential building permits issued in Cupertino over the past decade have overwhelmingly
consisted of permits for single family homes, as indicated in Figure 10. Between 2003 and 2012,
87 percent of all residential units permitted in Cupertino were single family units, and seven
percent were in buildings with five or more units. Compared to the composition of the existing
housing stock shown in Table 26, this represents a higher concentration of single-family units in
Cupertino over time. During the same period, 36 percent of residential units permitted
throughout Santa Clara County were for single family homes while 62 percent of units permitted
were in buildings with five or more units, which represents a smaller concentration of single-
family units in the county over time.
Figure 10: Residential Units Permitted by Building Type, 2003-2012
Source: US Census Building Permit Data, 2013; BAE, 2013.
87%
36%
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CupertinoSanta Clara County
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Single Family Two Family Three and Four Family Five or More Family
For Sale Residential
Home Price Trends. According to home sale data provided by DataQuick, which collects data
from the County Assessor (shown in Figure 11 below), home sale prices in Cupertino are
typically higher than prices in Santa Clara County overall, and were impacted mildly during the
recent economic downturn. Median home prices dropped only 8 percent in Cupertino between
2008 and 2010 compared to 35 percent for Santa Clara County between 2007 and 2009. The
median price for Cupertino changed very little between 2009 and 2011, but increased
significantly in 2012 to $1,045,750, higher than pre-recession levels and twice as high as the
median for the county.
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Figure 11: Median Home Sale Price, 2005-2012
Location Median Sale Price
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Cupertino $908,000$935,000$939,500$1,012,500$930,000$931,000$933,000$1,045,750
Santa Clara County$660,000$680,000$700,000$580,000$455,000$500,000$472,500$525,000
Source: Dataquick; BAE, 2013.
$0
$200,000
$400,000
$600,000
$800,000
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20052006200720082009201020112012
Cupertino Santa Clara County
Data on recent home sales in Cupertino further demonstrate that the housing market is
characterized by high home sale prices, with virtually no low- or moderately-priced options.
Table 28 shows the sale price distribution for single-family homes and condominiums sold in
Cupertino between March 1, 2013 and August 31, 2013. Among single-family homes sold during
this period, 88 percent sold for $1,000,000 or more, with a median price of $1,431,500. The
median price of condominiums sold during this period was $775,000, and more than half of all
condominiums had a sale price between $700,000 and $1,000,000. As discussed above, these
median housing costs exceed the affordability threshold for people earning the median income
for a person employed in Cupertino, particularly for single-person households or household
with only one income earner.
The data presented in Table 28 also indicate that the for-sale residential market in Cupertino
consists of relatively large units. Among homes recently sold, more than half of all single family
homes had four or more bedrooms. Although condominiums tended to be smaller than single
family homes, 90 percent had two or more bedrooms. The large size and high price of
residential units in Cupertino indicate that the for-sale market primarily serves larger high-
income households, and that there is a potential unmet need for smaller, more affordable units
to provide housing options for individuals and small households in the local workforce.
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Table 28: Sale Price Distribution of Single-Family Residences and Condominiums
by Number of Bedrooms, March-August 2013 (a)
Number of Units Sold
Sale Price Range1 BRs2 BRs3 BRs4+ BRsTotal% Total
Single-Family Residences
Less than $500,0000 01231.7%
$500,000-$999,999151201810.1%
$1,000,000-$1,499,9991445267642.7%
$1,500,000-$1,999,9990113466033.7%
$200,000 or more0 0 4 17 21 11.8%
Total 2 10 75 91178100.0%
% Total 1.1%5.6%42.1%51.1%100.0%
Median Sale Price$970,000$987,500$1,291,000$1,599,000$1,431,500
Average Sale Price$970,000$1,068,977$1,319,015$1,644,659$1,467,527
Average Size (sf)8221043159724561996
Average Price/sf $1,180$1,025$826$670$735
Condominiums
Less than $400,000 0 11022.4%
$400,000-$699,999 8 8 0 0 1619.3%
$700,000- $999,999 0 39 6 0 4554.2%
$1,000,000-$1,299,999 0 5 11 3 1922.9%
$1,300,000 or more 0 1 0 0 1 1.2%
Total 8 54 18 3 83100.0%
% Total 9.6%30.3%10.1%1.7%46.6%
Median Sale Price$539,500$747,500$1,037,500$1,150,000$775,000
Average Sale Price$535,625$781,778$977,833$1,108,333$812,373
Average Size (sf)8921291183519081393
Average Price/sf $600$606$533$581$583
Notes:
(a) Consists of all full and verified sales of single-family residences and condominiums in the 94014 ZIP
code between 3/1/2013 and 08/31/2013.
Sources: DataQuick, BAE; 2013.
Planned and Proposed For-Sale Projects. There are two for-sale residential projects in the
development pipeline in Cupertino: Parkside Trails, which would consist of 18 single family
homes on Stevens Canyon Road south of Ricardo Road and a six-unit live/work project on
Foothill Boulevard and Silver Oak Way16. Under the proposed Parkside Trails plan, the new
residential development would take place on nine acres of the site and an additional 33.5 acres
adjacent to the residential development would be dedicated as open space. The plan is
currently under review by the City. The project on Foothill Boulevard is on a small infill parcel
formerly occupied by an automotive service station.
16 As of the date of this report, this project has not been approved.
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Rental Residential
Existing Rental Inventory. Similar to the for-sale market, the rental residential market in
Cupertino consists of relatively large units. Figure 12 shows data provided by RealFacts, which
collects data on rental properties with 50 units or more. As shown, 59 percent of units in
Cupertino had two or more bedrooms, compared to 49 percent in Santa Clara County overall.
Figure 12: Rental Stock by Number of Bedrooms, Second Quarter 2013 (a)
Note:
(a) Data captures rental housing complexes with at least 50 units in Cupertino and Santa
Clara County. Unit types comprising less than 0.1 percent of the units in the sample were
omitted from the figure.
Sources: RealFacts; BAE, 2013.
6.3%
45.0%44.3%
4.4%3.0%
38.1%
52.6%
6.3%
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StudiosOne-Bedroom UnitsTwo-Bedroom UnitsThree-Bedroom
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Occupancy and Rental Rate Trends. Occupancy and rental rate trends between 2005 and 2013
demonstrate that Santa Clara County has a strong rental market, particularly in Cupertino. As
shown in Figure 13, rental rates in the City and county decreased in 2009 following steady
increases between 2005 and 2008. However, rents increased significantly in 2011, surpassing
pre-recession levels, and further increased through the second quarter of 2013. Throughout this
nine-year time period, the average monthly rent in Cupertino remained approximately $250 to
$425 higher than the average for Santa Clara County. As of the second quarter of 2013, the
average monthly rent was $2,426 in Cupertino and $2,062 in Santa Clara County.
The shortage of young adult residents and workers in Cupertino could be largely the result of
the lack of moderately priced housing options for many young or single-earner households,
which suggests a need for smaller, more affordable units that can serve as workforce housing.
GENERAL PLAN AMENDMENT – MARKET STUDY
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Figure 13: Rental Rate Trends, 2005-2013
Note:
(a) Data captures rental housing complexes with at least 50 units in Cupertino and Santa Clara County.
Sources: RealFacts; BAE, 2013.
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Occupancy rates in Santa Clara County and Cupertino further demonstrate solid demand for
housing in Cupertino. Housing markets are typically considered to have a healthy amount of
vacancy when units are 95 percent occupied, which allows for some mobility between rental
units. As shown in Figure 14, the rental occupancy rate in Cupertino was on average 95.3
percent occupied over the past eight years. During the Great Recession Cupertino’s occupancy
rate decreased to 93 percent. In Santa Clara County, the vacancy rate did not fall below 95
percent in any year between 2005 and 2013, and was higher in many years during this period.
Figure 14: Vacancy Rate Trends, 2005-2013
90.0%
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Planned and Proposed Rental Projects. There are three rental residential projects in the
development pipeline in Cupertino, totaling 404 new residential units, all in mixed-use
developments. The largest of the three projects is the Rose Bowl mixed-use development,
which is currently under construction and will consist of approximately 60,000 square feet of
retail and 204 rental residential units east of the Vallco shopping center. Also under construction
is the Biltmore Adjacency, a mixed-use project which will consist of 80 rental residential units
and 7,000 square feet of retail on Steven Creek Boulevard at North Blaney Avenue. The project
included demolition of 21,000 square feet of retail space, resulting in a net loss of retail space
on the site. The third project with rental residential units in the pipeline is Main Street
Cupertino, which will consist of 120 rental residential units, 130,500 square feet of retail space,
260,000 square feet of office space, and 180 hotel rooms on Steven Creek Boulevard between
Finch Avenue and Tantau Avenue. Main Street Cupertino has been approved but is not yet
under construction.
Office Real Estate Market Overview
Market Context. As discussed above, Cupertino is a significant employment node, due largely
to the strong presence of Apple Inc. in the city. Apple Inc. currently occupies a significant
portion of the office space in Cupertino in addition to the company’s existing campus. The
company has received City approvals to construct a second campus in Cupertino (Apple
Campus 2). It is not known whether the company will retain all of the space that it currently
occupies once the new campus is complete. However, Apple has indicated that the new
campus is intended to accommodate additional employees rather than to replace the space
that the company is currently using. Office brokers familiar with the local market report that
Apple’s presence in Cupertino also leads other companies to seek out office space in the City
because Apple often requires the companies that it works with to have a local satellite office. In
addition to Apple and the companies associated with it, there is high demand for office space
in Cupertino among high-tech companies and companies that offer professional services to the
high-tech industry.
The office market in Santa Clara County consists of a number of submarkets with varying
demand for office space, which is generally reflected in vacancy, lease, and absorption rates.
Palo Alto is typically considered to be the top tier in the Santa Clara County office market
supporting the highest rents and lowest vacancies. The West Valley submarket, which includes
the cities of Campbell, Cupertino, Santa Clara, Sunnyvale, and parts of west San Jose has
traditionally been highly desirable due to the location of executive-level residential areas in Los
Altos, Los Altos Hills, Lost Gatos, Monte Sereno and Cupertino.
Convergence of Office and R&D Space Requirements. Traditionally, there has been a
distinction in the real estate market between office and R&D space, with R&D space typically in
single-story rectangular or square-shaped structures with modest exterior features and
detailing. However, over time there has been an increasing convergence of these real estate
product types across the Bay Area as production facilities have moved elsewhere, often to other
GENERAL PLAN AMENDMENT – MARKET STUDY
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countries, and research and product development activities that once required large or
specialized lab space are more often completed using computer simulations. Future real estate
demand in Cupertino, Santa Clara County, and the Bay Area is expected to reflect a diminished
distinction between office and R&D space requirements, with office space used to conduct
tasks that have formerly required larger R&D spaces.
Demand for State-of-the-Art, Green Office Space. There has been a notable increase in the
number of office property owners and developers renovating or developing their office space
into LEED certified structures, usually at the silver, gold, or platinum levels. Two factors drive
this increase in interest in sustainable office space: (i) implementing design and building system
features that qualify a structure for LEED certification can result in significant operational savings
of the life of the building; and (ii) building users and tenants can market their “green” office
space as a positive feature to attract employees. Younger workers, particularly in the technology
sectors, seek to work for companies whose values generally align with their own and
environmental sustainability is one element of these values.
Demand for Building, Site and Neighborhood Amenities. Office workers, particularly
workers in the high-tech industries that dominate the market in Cupertino and elsewhere in
Silicon Valley, are increasingly demonstrating a preference for workplace locations that offer the
amenities typically found in more urban environments, including proximity to public
transportation, bicycle and pedestrian access, attractive retail offerings, and entertainment
options. In response to this shift in preferences among workers, companies are more often
seeking office locations that offer more urban-style amenities instead of opting for traditional
suburban office parks. The preference for more urban amenities, particularly access to public
transportation, is reflected in the preferences of companies looking for space in Silicon Valley.
Commercial brokers familiar with Cupertino have reported that the city’s lack of access to
Caltrain has deterred some companies from locating in Cupertino, and that some employers
have chosen to locate in Sunnyvale rather than Cupertino in order to have access to Caltrain.
Higher Employment Densities in Office Space. Since the recovery from the Great Recession,
office end users and technology tenants have begun to seek office space with open floor plans
to both encourage interaction among employees as well as accommodate more employees in
their office space to reduce real estate costs. As a result, owners of existing properties have
had to open up their building interiors as part of building renovation programming. This trend
has also led to increased employment densities with the gross square feet of office per
employees falling from 275 or 250 square feet per employee to 225 to 250 per employee. In
some cases, this ratio has reached 200 square feet per employee. For this study, BAE uses a
250 square foot per employee factor for office demand calculations.
Response by Silicon Valley Communities. Cities in Silicon Valley and elsewhere have started
to consider and implement strategies to reposition existing office parks and other suburban
office locations to better respond to these trends and shifts in demand. In general, these
strategies aim to better integrate suburban office development into the surrounding area
GENERAL PLAN AMENDMENT – MARKET STUDY
64
through mixed-use development and the addition of public spaces, bicycle paths, and
pedestrian networks. Elements of a repositioning strategy can also include the construction of
additional housing, particularly housing affordable to local workers, and expanding the mix of
retail and entertainment options. Implementation of some or all of these strategies may be
necessary for Cupertino to continue to capture a significant portion of future employment
growth.
Inventory and Absorption Trends. Silicon Valley is a strong employment node with a large
inventory of office space. According to data from commercial brokerage Cassidy/Turley, there
were approximately 61 million square feet of office space in Santa Clara County as of the first
quarter of 2013. The office inventory in Cupertino totaled approximately 4.1 million square feet,
one fifth of the West Valley office inventory (20.3 million square feet). Existing office
development in Cupertino is distributed primarily along Stevens Creek Boulevard, De Anza
Boulevard, and North Wolfe Road. A large office site north of Interstate 280 at North Wolfe
Road is located on the site of the proposed new Apple campus and would be demolished to
construct the new campus.
The amount of office space in Cupertino has been essentially unchanged over the past decade,
according to data from Cassidy Turley. As shown in Figure 15, Cupertino had approximately 4
million square feet of office space in 2003, and there have been only minor fluctuations through
the first quarter of 2013. Meanwhile, there were modest increases in the office inventory in the
West Valley submarket (from 15.7 million square feet in the first quarter of 2003 to 20.3 million
square feet in the first quarter of 2013) and in Santa Clara County overall (from 53.6 million
square feet in the first quarter of 2003 to 61.0 million square feet in the first quarter of 2013).
Figure 15: Office Inventory, 2003-2013
Note:
The West Valley submarket defined for this figure consists of Campbell, Cupertino, Santa Clara, and Sunnyvale.
Sources: Cassidy/Turley, 2013; BAE, 2013.
0
10,000,000
20,000,000
30,000,000
40,000,000
50,000,000
60,000,000
70,000,000
Q1 2003Q1 2004Q1 2005Q1 2006Q1 2007Q1 2008Q1 2009Q1 2010Q1 2011Q1 2012Q1 2013
Of
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GENERAL PLAN AMENDMENT – MARKET STUDY
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In the real estate market, gross absorption measures the total square feet space leased over a
defined time period, while net absorption measures the total square feet of space leased over a
defined time period after subtracting the amount of existing space vacated or new space added
to the inventory during the same period.
Net office absorption in Cupertino and the West Valley submarket has varied substantially over
the past two business cycles. Figure 16 and Figure 17 show net annual absorption in Cupertino
and the West Valley submarket between 2003 and 2012. As shown, net annual absorption in
Cupertino ranged from -169,110 square feet in 2008 to 213,336 square feet in 2004. Net annual
absorption in the West Valley submarket ranged from -482,011 square feet in 2009 to almost 2.2
million square feet in 2012.
Despite some years with considerable amounts negative net absorption, both Cupertino and
the West Valley submarket showed positive average net annual absorption over time. Annual
net absorption between 2003 and 2012 averaged approximately 60,500 square feet per year in
Cupertino and approximately 565,400 square feet per year in the West Valley submarket overall,
demonstrating long-term growth.
Figure 16: Annual Net Office Absorption, Cupertino, 2003-2012
Sources: Cassidy/Turley, 2013; BAE, 2013.
(75,138)
213,336
(17,079)
192,093
56,144
(169,110)
9,272
163,014 148,985
83,242
60,476
-200,000
-150,000
-100,000
-50,000
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
2003200420052006200720082009201020112012Annual
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GENERAL PLAN AMENDMENT – MARKET STUDY
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Figure 17: Annual Net Office Absorption, West Valley, 2003-2012
Note:
The West Valley submarket defined for this figure consists of Campbell, Cupertino, Santa Clara, and Sunnyvale.
Sources: Cassidy/Turley, 2013; BAE, 2013.
54,144
586,451 683,979 558,066
(31,393)
(301,192)
(482,011)
732,985
1,662,962
2,189,985
565,398
-1,000,000
-500,000
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
2003200420052006200720082009201020112012Annual
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2003-2012
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Vacancy and Rental Rate Trends. Similar to net absorption, lease and vacancy rates in
Cupertino, the West Valley submarket, and Santa Clara County have demonstrated a significant
amount of variation over two business cycles between 2003 and 2013. However, the Cupertino
office market has performed strongly over this time period relative to the West Valley
submarket and Santa Clara County overall. Figure 18 shows first quarter average Class A full
service office lease rates for Cupertino, the West Valley submarket, and Santa Clara County, and
Figure 19 shows average office vacancy rates for Cupertino, the West Valley submarket, and
Santa Clara County, according to data provided by Cassidy/Turley.
As shown, lease rates for Class A office space in Cupertino are typically higher than Class A
lease rates in the West Valley submarket or Santa Clara County overall. The average Class A
lease rate in all three geographies peaked in 2008, with first quarter lease rates averaging $3.94
per square foot per month in Cupertino, $3.56 per square foot per month in the West Valley
submarket, and $3.49 per square foot per month in Santa Clara County. Class A lease rates
have decreased slightly in subsequent years, though averages have remained higher than $3.00
per square foot per month in the city, submarket, and county. As of the first quarter of 2013, the
average full service Class A office lease rates in Cupertino was slightly lower than rates in the
submarket and county at $3.15 per square foot per month. However, trends over time suggest
that Class A properties in Cupertino typically rent for higher rates than average for the
submarket and county.
GENERAL PLAN AMENDMENT – MARKET STUDY
67
Figure 18: Class A Office Lease Rates, First Quarter 2003 to First Quarter 2013
Note:
(a) The West Valley submarket defined for this figure consists of Campbell, Cupertino, Santa Clara, and Sunnyvale.
Sources: Cassidy/Turley, 2013; BAE, 2013.
$0.00
$0.50
$1.00
$1.50
$2.00
$2.50
$3.00
$3.50
$4.00
$4.50
Q1 2003Q1 2004Q1 2005Q1 2006Q1 2007Q1 2008Q1 2009Q1 2010Q1 2011Q1 2012Q1 2013
Av
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Cupertino West Valley (a)Santa Clara County
Although first quarter office vacancy rates fluctuated substantially in Cupertino between 2003
and 2013, with a high of 17.0 percent in 2010 and a low of 1.5 percent in 2013, the vacancy rate
in Cupertino has consistently been lower than vacancy rates in the West Valley submarket and
Santa Clara County overall. The low vacancy rate in the first quarter of 2013, coupled with trends
demonstrating the low vacancy rate in Cupertino relative to other markets, indicates high
demand for Cupertino office space in the short term and over time.
Figure 19: Office Vacancy Rates, First Quarter 2003 to First Quarter 2013
Note:
(a) The West Valley submarket defined for this figure consists of Campbell, Cupertino, Santa Clara, and Sunnyvale.
Sources: Cassidy/Turley, 2013; BAE, 2013.
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
Q1 2003Q1 2004Q1 2005Q1 2006Q1 2007Q1 2008Q1 2009Q1 2010Q1 2011Q1 2012Q1 2013
Of
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According to office brokers familiar with Cupertino, the city’s low office vacancy rate, shortage
of large office spaces available for rent, and high office lease rates prevent many businesses
from locating in Cupertino and often cause small companies to leave the City in order to
GENERAL PLAN AMENDMENT – MARKET STUDY
68
expand. Cupertino City Center, which is considered by local brokers to be the city’s premier
office building, has been 100 percent occupied for over a year. It now has one 8,200-square foot
space available and will have two additional small spaces becoming available over the next six
months, but these spaces are expected to fill quickly. Rents at Cupertino City Center are $4.00
per square foot per month, triple net, or approximately $5.00 per square foot on a full service
basis. The Cupertino Financial Center, which local brokers consider to be the most prestigious
building in the City apart from Cupertino City Center, has less than 1,000 square feet available
for rent at $4.50 per square foot per month, full service. Asking rents for other spaces on the
market range from approximately $2.00 to $3.50 per square foot per month on a full service
basis. There are no available office spaces in Cupertino larger than 8,200 square feet and it is
reported that there have been no vacancies larger than 10,000 square feet in the City for at least
a year. An inventory of currently leasing office properties in Cupertino is shown in Appendix G-
1.
Planned and Proposed Office Development. As shown in Appendix H-1, there are four office
developments in the project pipeline in Cupertino, which would add one million net new square
feet (3.8 million gross new square feet) of office space to the city. The largest development in
the project pipeline is the 3.4 million square foot Apple Campus 2 project, which was approved
in October 2013 and is currently under building permit review. The project is planned in two
phases, the first consisting of 2.8 million square feet of office space in a four-story building, a
1,000-seat auditorium, a fitness center, and parking structures. The second phase would include
600,000 additional square feet of office and research facilities. According to the Economic and
Fiscal Impact study for the campus, prepared by Keyser Marston Associates in May 2013, the
campus would have a total capacity of 14,200 employees. The plans call for demolition of 2.65
million square feet of office space, resulting in a net increase of 750,000 square feet of office
space resulting from the project.
The remaining three office developments in the project pipeline consist of an estimated 294,000
square feet of net new office space which would expand the city’s existing inventory by
approximately 7.4 percent. The majority of this space would be in Main Street Cupertino, a
mixed-use development that includes 260,000 square feet of office space, 130,500 square feet
of retail space, 180 hotel rooms, and 120 residential units. Additional office space has been
planned in the Oaks Shopping Center project, a mixed-use development with a four-story, 122-
room hotel and a three-story, 56,000-square foot retail, office, and convention center building.
The plans for the Oaks Shopping Center call for demolition of 2,430 square feet of retail space
and 15,263 square feet of movie theater space. This study estimates that the 56,000 square feet
of commercial space in the Oaks Shopping Center project would be divided evenly between
retail, office, and convention center, with almost 19,000 square feet for each use. The remaining
office square footage consists of demolition of five office buildings totaling 140,000 square feet
at One Results Way and construction of 155,000 square feet of office space in three two-story
buildings along with a two-story parking garage. All three projects have received the necessary
entitlements but are not yet under construction. It should be noted that the Oaks Shopping
GENERAL PLAN AMENDMENT – MARKET STUDY
69
Center project was approved in September 2008, and its entitlement will expire in September
2014 unless building permits are approved.
Retail Real Estate Market Overview
The data presented here and in the Retail Sales and Leakage Analysis are also used as
foundational information for the separate Retail Strategy Report prepared by Greensfelder
Commercial Real Estate.
Retail Market Context. Santa Clara County provides a relatively robust retail sector, with
several regional malls, lifestyle centers, and other types of destination retail along with
community-serving retail options. Terranomics, which collects data on shopping centers of
50,000 square feet or more, reports that the retail inventory in Santa Clara County totaled
approximately 38 million square feet in the fourth quarter of 2012. This represents 31 percent of
the Bay Area retail inventory, while only 25 percent of the region’s population and 23 percent of
its households lived in Santa Clara County as of the 2010 US Census.
Retail development in Cupertino is somewhat dispersed along Stevens Creek Boulevard, De
Anza Boulevard, and Wolfe Road, which constitute the primary commercial corridors in
Cupertino. The Vallco Shopping Center, on North Wolfe Road and Stevens Creek Boulevard, is
the largest retail node in the city, and is one of the study areas for the GPA. Although Vallco is a
regional mall, it has experienced high vacancy in its in-line shop space in recent years and is not
able to compete with newer destination retail centers in neighboring cities, particularly Valley
Fair shopping center in Santa Clara and lifestyle centers such as Santana Row in San Jose17.
The remaining retail space in Cupertino consists primarily of neighborhood and community-
serving retail centers. Along Stevens Creek Boulevard, retail options include the Oaks
Shopping Center, Cupertino Crossroads Shopping Center, a stand-alone Whole Foods store,
and a retail cluster that includes a Target store. As discussed in the section above, there is an
approved development plan for the site of the Oaks Shopping Center that would demolish the
existing movie theater and a portion of the existing retail space on site to construct a new retail,
office, and convention center space and a 122-room hotel. There are several additional
community-serving shopping centers on De Anza Boulevard and North Wolfe Road, including
two Ranch 99 supermarkets. The Cupertino Village shopping center, which is north of Interstate
280 on North Wolfe Road, is also one of the study areas for the GPA.
Inventory and Absorption Trends. Similar to the inventory of office space, the amount of retail
space in Cupertino has not changed substantially in recent years, according to data from
17 A full description of the Vallco Shopping Center and strategies to redevelop and revitalize this
shopping facility is presented in the Retail Strategy Study.
GENERAL PLAN AMENDMENT – MARKET STUDY
70
commercial brokerage Terranomics, which tracks shopping centers measuring 50,000 square
feet or more. Terranomics combines Cupertino and Sunnyvale in to a single submarket for data
reporting purposes. As shown in Figure 20, Cupertino and Sunnyvale had approximately 4.2
million square feet of retail space in 2006, which increased modestly to 4.4 million square feet
by the second quarter of 2013, an increase generally consistent with the increase in retail
inventory experienced by Santa Clara County (growing from 35.6 million square feet in 2006 to
38.0 million square feet in the second quarter of 2013).
Figure 20: Retail Inventory, 2006-2013 (Year to Date) (a)
Notes:
(a) Data are for shopping centers with 50,000 square feet or more.
(b) Year-to-date data are through the second quarter of 2013.
Sources: Terranomics, 2013; BAE, 2013.
0
5,000,000
10,000,000
15,000,000
20,000,000
25,000,000
30,000,000
35,000,000
40,000,000
2006200720082009201020112012YTD 2013 (b)
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With the exception of a couple years directly following the 2008 real estate market crash and
Great Recession, net annual retail absorption in Cupertino/Sunnyvale and Santa Clara County
was generally positive between 2006 and 2013. Figure 21 and Figure 22 show net annual
absorption in Cupertino/Sunnyvale and Santa Clara County between 2006 and the second
quarter of 2013. As shown, net annual absorption in the Cupertino/Sunnyvale submarket ranged
from -64,065 square feet in 2012 to 148,420 square feet in 2011. Net annual absorption in Santa
Clara County overall ranged from -627,842 square feet in 2009 to 934,119 square feet in 2007.
Overall both the Cupertino/Sunnyvale submarket and Santa Clara County experienced net
positive absorption over this time period.
GENERAL PLAN AMENDMENT – MARKET STUDY
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Figure 21: Net Annual Retail Absorption, Cupertino, 2006-2013
Notes:
(a) Data are for shopping centers with 50,000 square feet or more.
(b) Year-to-date data are through the second quarter of 2013.
Sources: Terranomics, 2013; BAE, 2013.
95,392
59,059
14,213 13,388
(43,253)
148,420
(64,065)
(5,669)
27,186
-100,000
-50,000
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
2006200720082009201020112012YTD 2013
(b)
Annual
Average
2003-2012
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Figure 22: Net Annual Retail Absorption, Santa Clara County, 2006-2013
Notes:
(a) Data are for shopping centers with 50,000 square feet or more.
(b) Year-to-date data are through the second quarter of 2013.
Sources: Terranomics, 2013; BAE, 2013.
410,940
934,119
718,182
(627,842)
(54,034)
400,595
92,622
196,884 258,933
-800,000
-600,000
-400,000
-200,000
0
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
2006200720082009201020112012YTD 2013
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Annual
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2003-2012
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Vacancy and Rental Rates. Data from Terranomics on retail vacancy and asking rents suggest
that the retail real estate market in Santa Clara County and the Cupertino/Sunnyvale submarket
has not fully recovered from the recent recession; however, the Cupertino/Sunnyvale submarket
has demonstrated a slightly stronger recovery. (See Table 23). Although retail asking rents in
GENERAL PLAN AMENDMENT – MARKET STUDY
72
Cupertino/Sunnyvale trended downward between 2006 and 2010, average triple net asking
rents increased from $2.21 per square foot per month in 2010 to $2.87 per square foot per
month in 2012. As of the second quarter of 2013, the average retail asking rent had fallen to
$2.48 per square foot per month on a triple net basis, demonstrating continuing fluctuations in
the market. Retail asking rents also decreased in Santa Clara County between 2006 and 2009,
but have remained at approximately 2009 levels in subsequent years.
As of the second quarter of 2013, retail asking rents in Santa Clara County averaged $2.15 per
square foot per month on a triple net basis. Online property listings suggest that retail leasing
activity in Cupertino is relatively healthy. (See Appendix G-2 for retail listings). Retail properties
currently available for lease in Cupertino generally range in price from $2.25 to $4.50 per square
foot per month on a triple net basis.
Figure 23: Retail Lease Rate Trends, 2006-2013
Notes:
(a) Data are for shopping centers with 50,000 square feet or more.
(b) Year-to-date data are through the second quarter of 2013.
Sources: Terranomics, 2013; BAE, 2013.
$0.00
$0.50
$1.00
$1.50
$2.00
$2.50
$3.00
$3.50
2006200720082009201020112012YTD 2013
(a)
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Cupertino/Sunnyvale Santa Clara County
Occupancy rates in Cupertino/Sunnyvale and Santa Clara County also demonstrate that the
market is continuing to recover from the recession. (See Figure 24). Cupertino/Sunnyvale and
Santa Clara County had retail vacancy rates averaging four percent or lower between 2006 and
2008, followed by large increases in vacancy in 2009 and 2010. At the peak in 2010, the average
vacancy rate was eight percent in Cupertino/Sunnyvale and seven percent in Santa Clara
County. Vacancy rates have decreased slightly in following years, ending the second quarter of
2013 at seven percent in Cupertino/Sunnyvale and six percent in Santa Clara County overall.
While higher than pre-recession vacancy rates, these current rates are not outside of a range
typically seen in relatively heavy markets.
GENERAL PLAN AMENDMENT – MARKET STUDY
73
Figure 24: Retail Vacancy Trends, 2006-2013
Notes:
(a) Data are for shopping centers with 50,000 square feet or more.
(b) Year-to-date data are through the second quarter of 2013.
Sources: Terranomics, 2013; BAE, 2013.
0.00%
1.00%
2.00%
3.00%
4.00%
5.00%
6.00%
7.00%
8.00%
9.00%
2006200720082009201020112012YTD 2013
(b)
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Cupertino/Sunnyvale Santa Clara County
Planned and Proposed Retail Development. As shown in Appendix H-1, retail projects in the
development pipeline in Cupertino include 321,700 net square feet currently under construction
and 30,900 net square feet approved but not yet under construction. Projects currently under
construction include the addition of 101,000 net new square feet of retail space at the
Homestead Square shopping center, the Main Street Cupertino project (130,500 square feet of
new retail), the Rose Bowl (59,800 square feet of new retail), Cupertino Village (24,500 square
feet of new retail), the Biltmore project with 7,000 square feet of retail, and a 20,000-square foot
cafeteria for Apple employees.
In addition to the projects currently under construction, there are three approved projects with
planned retail space that are not yet under construction: the Oaks Shopping Center (estimated
at approximately 19,000 net new square feet of retail), Saich Way Station, a redevelopment of
existing retail space resulting in a net increase of 4,000 square feet of retail, and Tantau Retail, a
planned 11,000-square foot retail building and parking garage.
Hotel Market Overview
Hotel Product Types
Hotels and other lodging facilities offer a variety of product types with considerable variation in
price and amenities. In addition to traditional hotels offering a range of amenity levels (often
categorized as either full service, select service, or limited service lodging facilities), many hotel
markets include extended stay hotels, resort hotels, boutique hotels, eco-resorts, or other types
of lodging facilities.
GENERAL PLAN AMENDMENT – MARKET STUDY
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Full service lodging typically offers a full range of amenities, including dining, room service,
concierge, assistance with luggage, and meeting or party rooms. Lodging facilities offering
these amenities are most commonly located in large cities and cater to leisure and business
travelers. Limited service lodging facilities do not offer the labor-intensive amenities offered at
full-service hotels, and are often smaller properties located at freeway interchanges or near
airports. Select service lodging offers a wider range of amenities than limited service hotels, but
fewer amenities than are typical of full service hotels. For example, select service hotels might
offer coffee and limited breakfast options in the lobby but are not likely to offer room service.
With all else equal, the pricing of lodging facilities generally increases with the level of service
and amenities offered.
Extended-stay hotels and resort hotels provide variations on traditional hotels that respond to
particular segments of lodging demand. Extended-stay hotels are typically designed to suitable
for long trips by including features such as in-suite kitchen facilities, larger rooms, exercise
facilities, and grocery service, and are often marketed to business travelers. Similar to more
traditional hotels, extended-stay hotels show variation in price, services, and amenities. Resort
hotels are typically developed as destinations, so that the resort itself is the reason for selecting
a location as a travel destination, and are targeted to leisure travelers. Resorts typically offer full
service dining facilities, swimming pools, spas, customized recreation services (or assistance in
arranging these nearby), and general concierge services. The location, recreation, and service
amenities offered at a resort are reflected in the pricing of the rooms.
Over the past decade, the range of hotel product types has expanded with the increasing
popularity of boutique hotels, agri-tourism, and ecotourism. Boutique hotels typically offer a
strong design theme, which is reinforced with touches throughout the hotel. Examples of large
operators who have specialized in boutique hotels in California include Kimpton, which
operates one hotel in Cupertino, and Joie de Vivre. Boutique hotels are usually select service
facilities and thus do not cater to visitors seeking multi-night stays with full amenities on-site,
which reduces operating costs and room rates compared to luxury hotels.
Agri-tourism includes a number of activities that bring people to a farm or ranch for recreational
purposes, and is not limited to overnight trips. Examples of agri-tourism activities include fruit
picking, horse riding, purchasing food from farm stands, and overnight visits at farms or
ranches.
Ecotourism allows some human access to sensitive environmental lands while limiting the
environmental impact of travel to these areas. In place of a traditional hotel or luxury resort,
lodging provided at eco resorts often consists of luxury tents or yurts.
GENERAL PLAN AMENDMENT – MARKET STUDY
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Santa Clara County and Cupertino Hotel Market
Hotel Market Context. In Santa Clara County and throughout Silicon Valley, business-related
travel is a key driver of demand for lodging uses, generated primarily by high-tech companies in
the area and the businesses providing goods or services to them. As a result, lodging options in
the area consist primarily of traditional hotels (including full, select, and limited service options),
extended stay hotels, and boutique hotels. Smith Travel Research (STR), a private data vendor
that provides information on performance trends in the lodging industry, tracks 271 properties
in Santa Clara County with a combined total of 26,044 rooms. Previous research conducted by
BAE suggests that the STR database includes at least 95 percent of all hotel rooms in Silicon
Valley.
Due in part to the large amount of business-related travel to Silicon Valley, extended stay hotels
in the area tend to have fairly high occupancy rates. A recent study by BAE found that the
occupancy rate in a selection of upscale chain extended stay hotels in San Mateo and Santa
Clara Counties was 82 percent in 2012, according to STR, compared to approximately 61
percent for all hotels tracked by STR nationwide. In general, hotel occupancy rates over 70
percent are considered high.
Inventory. There are five hotels in Cupertino with a total of 785 rooms: Cupertino Inn,
Courtyard San Jose/Cupertino, Hilton Garden Inn Cupertino, Kimpton Cypress Hotel, and aloft
Cupertino. Although each of these hotels offers many amenities and services, none offer the in-
suite kitchen facilities that are typical of extended-stay hotels in Silicon Valley. (See Figure 25).
Two additional proposed hotels would add 302 new hotel rooms to the city, and are discussed
below. The newest of the five existing hotels is the aloft Hotel, which opened in 2013, while the
oldest is the Cupertino Inn, which opened in 1987. The owner of the Cupertino Inn has
expressed interest in constructing a 200- to 250-room hotel on an adjacent site as an expansion
of the existing hotel.
Figure 25: Hotel Inventory, Cupertino, 2013
Room Rates (per night) (a)
HotelLodging TypeWeekdayWeekend
Cupertino InnFull Service$209$99XXXX
Courtyard San Jose/CupertinoFull Service$289-$309$119-$159XXX
Hilton Garden Inn CupertinoFull Service$228-$333$92-$117 XXXX
Kimpton Cypress HotelFull Service$298-$389$116-$239XXX
aloft HotelFull Service$124-$349$109-$179XXX
Note:
(a) Nightly room rates for Cupertino Inn are based on interviews with hotel staff. Nightly room
rates for the remaining four hotels are based on a survey of advertised room rates for Saturday,
August 3rd and Monday, August 5th.
Sources: cupertinoinn.com, 2013; marriot.com, 2013; hiltongardeninn3.hilton.com/en/index.html,
2013; thecypresshotel.com, 2013; starwoodhotels.com, 2013; BAE, 2013.
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GENERAL PLAN AMENDMENT – MARKET STUDY
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Occupancy and RevPAR. Demand for hotel rooms in Cupertino tends to be significantly
higher during the week than on weekends, indicating that business travel is the primary source
of hotel demand in the area, while leisure travel constitutes a relatively small portion of demand.
Figure 26 shows occupancy rates for Santa Clara County and for midscale, upscale, and upper-
upscale hotels within two miles of Cupertino, according to STR. As shown, occupancy rates
among these hotels are highest on Tuesday and Wednesday nights, reaching 89 percent in mid-
to upscale Cupertino area hotels and 86 percent in the County overall. Additionally, hotel
operators in Cupertino estimate that 70 to 75 percent of hotel room demand in Cupertino is
due to business travel, with occupancy rates frequently reaching 90 to 100 percent during the
week and falling to lower levels during the weekend. Hotel room rates reflect this trend, with
higher rates during the week than on weekend nights.
Figure 26: Occupancy by Day of Week, August 2012-July 2013
Note:
(a) Hotels sampled for the Cupertino Area include all upper midscale class, upscale class, and upper upscale
class hotels within two miles of Cupertino.
Sources: STR, 2013; BAE, 2013.
SunMonTueWedThuFriSat
Cupertino Area (a)63.5%83.0%88.8%88.8%81.7%70.4%70.2%
Santa Clara County 59.7%78.3%85.5%85.5%76.8%67.7%69.9%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Hotel price and occupancy rates have shown steady increases as the economy has recovered
over the past few years, indicating a strong hotel market in Cupertino and Santa Clara County.
According to STR data presented in Figure 27, the average daily rate per room (ADR) for hotels
in the Cupertino area and in Santa Clara County overall has increased in recent years, following
a decrease in 2009 and 2010. In 2012, the average hotel occupancy rate in the Cupertino area
reached 79 percent in the Cupertino area and 73 percent in Santa Clara County, surpassing
occupancy rates seen during the previous five years. As a result of high occupancy rates, hotel
revenues in 2012 exceeded 2008 revenues, despite have a lower ADR.
GENERAL PLAN AMENDMENT – MARKET STUDY
77
Figure 27: Hotel Average Daily Rate and Occupancy Rate, 2007-2012
Note:
(a) Hotels sampled for the Cupertino Area include all upper midscale class, upscale class, and upper upscale class hotels
within two miles of Cupertino.
Sources: STR, 2013; BAE, 2013.
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
$0
$20
$40
$60
$80
$100
$120
$140
$160
200720082009201020112012
Oc
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Cupertino Area ADR (a)Santa Clara County ADR
Cupertino Area Occupancy (a)Santa Clara County Occupancy
Planned and Proposed Lodging Development. The city’s development pipeline includes 302
new hotel rooms in two-mixed use developments, as discussed in the previous sections. Plans
for the Oaks Shopping Center include 122 new hotel rooms along with office, retail, and
convention center uses and plans for Main Street Cupertino include 180 new hotel rooms along
with office, retail, and residential uses. Both projects have received development entitlements
but are not yet under construction. See Appendix H-1 for a listing of planned and proposed
hotel projects.
GENERAL PLAN AMENDMENT – MARKET STUDY
78
POTENTIAL MARKET SUPPORT FOR NEW DEVELOPMENT
As discussed in the previous sections, demand for housing, office, retail, and lodging appears
to be healthy at the present time and long-term trends indicate market potential for additional
development in key areas throughout the city. Based on past and current trends, projected
future development, and planned and proposed projects, the following sections provide
estimates of the market potential for future development in Cupertino.
Demand estimates are made to 2020, to reflect near term demand, and then to 2035 to indicate
the total cumulative demand over the entire planning timeframe.
Population, Household and Employment Projections
The Association of Bay Area Governments (ABAG) in collaboration with the Metropolitan
Transportation Commission (MTC) is the regional agency responsible for preparing
demographic and economic projections for the nine-county Bay Area region. ABAG and MTC
released the most recent demographic projections in July 2013. These projections, known as
the Final Forecast of Jobs, Population and Housing are part of the One Bay Area Plan and
represent broad policy-based jobs and housing demand and production targets. The One Bay
Area Plan implements the California Sustainable Communities and Climate Protection Act of
2008 (California Senate Bill 375, Steinberg), which requires each of the state’s 18 metropolitan
areas, including the Bay Area, to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from cars and light trucks.
As an integral element of the One Bay Area Plan, the final projections indicate future growth
throughout the Bay Area through 2040 based on a regional model that estimates overall
population and employment growth.18 That growth is then allocated to various jurisdictions and
subareas based on an inventory of available land for development as well as policy objectives.19
According to ABAG figures, the Bay Area is projected to experience household, housing unit,
and employment growth between 2010 and 2040. The rate of household and housing unit
growth in Santa Clara County is expected to be slightly higher than the regional rate of growth,
while employment growth in the county is expected to be similar to the regional growth rate.
Growth projections for Cupertino indicate steady growth in households, housing units, and
employment between 2010 and 2040, (See Table 29). Overall, figures from ABAG indicate that
18 From the One Bay Area Plan released July, 2013 and available for download at:
http://onebayarea.org/pdf/final_supplemental_reports/FINAL_PBA_Forecast_of_Jobs_Population_and_Housing.pdf.
19 The last set of projections prior to the One Bay Area Plan was ABAG’s “Projections 2009” which breaks population
and employment projections down into five-year increments; ABAG anticipates release of its Projections 2013 this fall
or winter.
GENERAL PLAN AMENDMENT – MARKET STUDY
79
Cupertino will gain almost 5,000 households and over 7,000 jobs between 2010 and 2040, based
upon the City’s land inventory and ABAG policy objectives.
Table 29: Population, Household, and Employment
Projections, 2010 and 2040
AnnualTotal
% Change% Change
Households2010 2040 (a)2010-20402010-2040
Cupertino20,18024,0400.6%19.1%
Santa Clara County604,200818,3901.0%35.5%
Bay Area (b)2,608,0203,308,1100.8%26.8%
Housing Units
Cupertino 21,03024,0400.4%14.3%
Santa Clara County631,920842,3501.0%33.3%
Bay Area (b)2,785,9503,446,6400.7%23.7%
Employment
Cupertino 26,09033,1100.8%26.9%
Santa Clara County926,2701,229,5200.9%32.7%
Bay Area (b)3,385,3104,504,9401.0%33.1%
Notes:
(a) Projections from ABAG Jobs-Housing Connection Strategy, May 16, 2012.
(b) The nine-county Bay Area includes Alameda, Contra Costa, Marin, Napa,
San Francisco, San Mateo, Santa Clara, Solano, and Sonoma counties.
Sources: ABAG, 2012; BAE, 2013.
Housing Demand
Projected demand for new residential development in Cupertino is based on ABAG’s projected
residential growth in the West Valley submarket. For the purposes of the residential analysis,
the West Valley submarket includes Cupertino, Campbell, Los Altos, Santa Clara, Saratoga, and
Sunnyvale. As shown in Table 30, the One Bay Area Plan estimates that the West Valley
submarket will gain approximately 42,400 housing units between 2010 and 2040, at an average
rate of approximately 1,400 units per year. The One Bay Area Plan estimates that Cupertino will
gain approximately 3,800 residential units between 2010 and 2040, constituting just under nine
percent of West Valley’s housing growth.
Table 30: Projected Housing Unit Growth, West Valley, 2010-2040
HousingAverage Annual
Housing UnitsUnit GrowthHousing Unit
201020402010-2040Growth 2010-2040
West Valley160,030202,47042,4401,415
Cupertino21,03024,7903,760125
Campbell16,95019,9903,040101
Los Altos11,20012,3101,11037
Santa Clara45,15058,93013,780459
Saratoga9,91011,6401,73058
Sunnyvale55,79074,81019,020634
Cupertino Share of West Valley13.1%12.2%8.9%8.9%
Sources: ABAG & MTC, 2012; BAE, 2013.
GENERAL PLAN AMENDMENT – MARKET STUDY
80
Table 31 shows a low estimate of demand for housing in Cupertino by 2020 and 2035 along with
a more aggressive high estimate. The conservative low estimate assumes that Cupertino will
capture approximately 9 percent of residential growth in the West Valley submarket, at an
average rate of 125 units per year, as shown in the One Bay Area Plan. The high estimate
assumes that Cupertino will capture a larger share of projected growth in the West Valley
between 2013 and 2035, 15.5 percent, at an average annual rate of 219 units per year. This
higher capture rate was set at 175 percent of the low capture rate and assumes that that the city
updates its Housing Element to strengthen its jobs-housing balance by expanding housing
opportunities in light of strong demand.
After subtracting housing units that have been entitled or are under construction, the low
estimate results in estimated demand for 473 housing units by 2020 and 2,353 housing units by
2035 under the low estimate with the City’s 8.9 percent of the West Valley housing market.
Under the high estimate, BAE estimates demand for 1,131 units by 2020 and 4,420 housing units
by 2035. Note that the projected numbers for 2035 are cumulative and include projection for
2020.
Table 31: Projected Housing Demand, Cupertino, 2020-2035
As discussed in the residential real estate portion of this analysis, demand for housing in
Cupertino over the past decade has been strong, with high prices and little impact from the
recent recession. As a result, market demand is unlikely to be a limiting factor preventing
housing growth in Cupertino between now and 2035, and may exceed the estimates presented
in Table 31 above. Instead, factors such as the availability of land, local polices regarding
residential development, and community support or opposition to housing growth are
expected to set the upper bound of potential housing growth in Cupertino over the next 20
years or more.
Projected Housing Demand 20202035
Low Estimate
Gross New Housing Unit Demand 8772,757
Less: Entitled Housing Units 404404
Net New Housing Unit Demand 4732,353
High Estimate
Gross New Housing Unit Demand 1,5354,824
Less: Entitled Housing Units 404404
Net New Housing Unit Demand 1,1314,420
Assumptions
Cupertino Capture of West Vally Growth
Low Estimate Scenario 8.9%
High Estimate Scenario @ 175% of Low15.5%
Average # of Units Built/Year
Low Estimate Scenario 125
High Estimate Scenario 219
Source: BAE, 2013.
GENERAL PLAN AMENDMENT – MARKET STUDY
81
Although market support can be anticipated for most housing types, the demographic and real
estate analysis suggests that there is a particularly large amount of unmet demand for
residential development to serve the housing needs of young members of the workforce. As
discussed in previous sections, Cupertino has a small share of young adult residents and
workers, which is likely due largely to the high cost of housing in the city. Future residential
development in Cupertino can better meet this segment of demand by providing smaller, more
affordable units adjacent to services, retail, and entertainment options.
Office Demand
The demand for office space in a particular location often shifts over time in response to
economic and demographic changes. As discussed above, Cupertino currently has a strong
office market, characterized by high rents and low vacancy rates, which suggests potential
market support for additional office development in the city. The presence of Apple in
Cupertino is a significant factor driving this high demand, both because Apple occupies a large
amount of office space in the City and because other companies want to locate near the Apple
campus. Some businesses choose to locate in Cupertino in order to do business with Apple,
while others are spin-offs established by former employees of Apple Inc. The potential range of
future demand for office space in Cupertino was estimated based on past office construction
and absorption trends and employment projections for the City and the West Valley submarket
Employment Projections
Future demand for office space can be estimated based on projected growth in employment
and the amount of office space needed to accommodate anticipated growth. The One Bay
Area Plan estimates that employment in the West Valley submarket will increase by 68,990 jobs
between 2010 and 2040, as shown in Table 32. According to these estimates, the professional
services industry, health and education industry, and leisure, hospitality, and other services
industry are expected to account for much of the projected job growth in the West Valley
submarket between 2010 and 2040.
Using 2011 ACS data showing occupation by industry for Santa Clara County, Table 32
estimates that office-based jobs will account for 70 percent of all new jobs in the West Valley
submarket between 2010 and 2040. The estimated proportion of office jobs varies by industry,
ranging from 24 percent for jobs in the construction industry to 91 percent for jobs in the
information and financial activities industries. Based on these proportions, the anticipated job
growth in the West Valley between 2010 and 2040 is expected to include approximately 49,000
office jobs, generating demand for approximately 12 million square feet of additional office
space over the 30-year period, at an average rate of approximately 405,000 additional square
feet of office space per year.
GENERAL PLAN AMENDMENT – MARKET STUDY
82
Table 32: Annual Office Space Demand Based on Projected Employment, West Valley, 2010-2040
New JobsPercentNumber of NewTotal Sq. Ft.Annual Sq. Ft.
Industry Sector2010-2040 (b)Office (c)Office JobsNew Demand (d)2010-2040
Agriculture & Natural Resources(162)27%(44)(10,955)(365)
Construction3,29324%796199,0456,635
Manufacturing & Wholesale1,02676%779194,6426,488
Retail3,40082%2,805701,20523,373
Transportation, Warehousing, & Utilities93044%406101,6073,387
Information4,39191%4,0081,002,02733,401
Financial Activities1,68191%1,537384,30212,810
Professional Services28,32982%23,1825,795,548193,185
Health & Education14,78175%11,0602,765,05692,169
Leisure, Hospitality, & Other Services10,38133%3,382845,43828,181
Government939 70%660 165,054 5,502
Total 68,99070%48,57212,142,969404,766
Notes:
(a) The West Valley submarket defined for this figure includes Campbell, Cupertino, Santa Clara, and Sunnyvale.
(b) New jobs by industry are from the Jobs-Housing Connection Strategy Employment Distribution released by ABAG and MTC in
May 2012.
(c) The proportion of office jobs by industry is estimated based on 2011 ACS occupation by industry data for Santa Clara County.
(d) Total new office space demand is based on an average of:
250square feet per office employee.
Sources: ABAG & MTC, 2012; ACS, 2011; BAE, 2013.
Recently Proposed Corporate Campuses
As documented above, Cupertino is an important employment location with a strong office real
estate market, which suggests high existing and future demand for office development in the
city. Due to the Cupertino’s desirability as an office location, there is significant potential for the
City to attract an additional corporate campus to accommodate an existing major employer or
to attract a new major employer. From an economic development perspective, the City should
have sufficient office allocations available to allow for a large corporate campus should the
opportunity arise.
Over the past few years, a number of high-tech companies have proposed substantial corporate
campuses in Silicon Valley cities that have recently been constructed, are currently under
construction, or are seeking entitlements. The campuses shown in Table 33 are among these
projects and range from approximately 500,000 to 2.5 million square feet, with the exception of
Apple Campus 2, which has a much larger total square footage. To ensure that Cupertino has
the flexibility to respond to future, unforeseen demand, or demand at a peak in the business
cycle, an allocation for office space should be at least 2.0 million square feet.
GENERAL PLAN AMENDMENT – MARKET STUDY
83
Table 33: Corporate Campuses Recently Proposed by
Silicon Valley Tech Companies
Building
CompanySize (sq. ft.)Location
Apple3,400,000 Cupertino
Google1,100,000 Mountain View (Bayfront NASA)
Gilead Sciences2,500,000 Foster City
Samsung680,000 North San Jose
NVIDIA1,000,000 Santa Clara
Vmware Inc.1,500,000 Palo Alto Stanford Research Park
New Construction450,000
Renovation1,050,000
Facebook Inc.1,475,690 Menlo Park
East Campus1,035,840
West Campus439,850
SRI International1,300,000 Menlo Park
Sources: Silicon Valley Business Journal, 2013; Bloomberg Business
Week, 2013; The Registry, 2013; City of Cupertino, 2013; Facebook,
2012; BAE, 2013.
Projected Office Demand
The minimum projected demand for office space in Cupertino is estimated based on ABAG’s
projected employment growth in the West Valley and Cupertino’s recent capture of West Valley
office absorption. As shown previously in Figure 16, annual office absorption between 2003 and
2012 averaged 60,476 square feet in Cupertino and 565,398 square feet in the West Valley
submarket, resulting in a 10.7 percent capture rate of West Valley office absorption in
Cupertino. Applying this capture rate to the annual average office demand projection for the
West Valley (shown in Table 32 above ) results in estimated demand for office space in
Cupertino averaging approximately 43,300 square feet per year. After accounting for projects
currently entitled or under construction20, this suggests that minimum net office demand will
total approximately 156,000 square feet by 2020 and 805,400 square feet by 2035, as shown in
Table 34.
However, the ABAG projections are general in nature and do not always capture the
employment dynamic that introduced when a community is home to a major technology firm
such as Apple Inc. Large technology companies tend to plan and grow in “spurts” that may or
may not match regional projections. Furthermore, the agglomeration effect of being host to
large technology companies (in terms of attracting or spinning-off firms) may not be fully
captured in the projections. Hence, for the purpose of this analysis, BAE treats the Apple
20 The analysis assumes that fifty percent of planned and proposed office space is ultimately constructed.
GENERAL PLAN AMENDMENT – MARKET STUDY
84
Campus 2 as an additional source of demand and presents data on large technology campus
projects on the Peninsula and in Silicon Valley to indicate what potential demand may be and
inform the City’s planning process.
Table 34 factor in the capacity to accommodate the proposed Apple Campus 2 along with
another new corporate campus equivalent in scale to the recent projects shown in Table 33, in
addition to the minimum demand estimates that were developed based on projected
employment. As shown, this results in a net new demand of approximately 2.9 million square
feet by 2020 and 3.6 million square feet by 2035. Given the recent shortage of office spaces in
Cupertino containing more than 10,000 contiguous square feet, a new recommended office
allocation could also allow for multi-tenant office developments, which could create the space
needed for mid-size companies to grow in Cupertino as well as accommodate a new major
technology company or future expansion of an existing firm.
Table 34: Projected Office Demand, Cupertino, 2013-2035
20202035
Minimum Demand Estimate
Gross Demand (sq. ft.) (a)303,061952,477
Less: Entitled Office Development (sq. ft.)147,050147,050
Net New Office Demand ABAG Projections (sq. ft.)156,011805,428
Sq. Ft. Required for New Corporate Campus (sf. ft.) (b)2,000,0002,000,000
Net New Square Footage of Apple Campus 2 (c)750,000750,000
Total New Demand for Office Space2,906,0113,555,428
Assumptions
Projected Average Annual Demand for Office Space, West Valley (sq. ft.)404,766
Cupertino Share of West Valley Office Employment (e)10.7%
Projected Average Annual Demand for Office Space, Cupertino (sq. ft)43,294
Note:
Source: BAE, 2013.
(e) Cupertino share of West Valley office employment is based on Cupertino's share of
West Valley office absorption between 2003 and 2012.
(a) Minimum gross demand is estimated based on annual average demand for office
space in Cupertino
(b) Sq. ft. requirement estimated for a new corporate campus is based on corporate
campuses recently proposed or approved by high-tech companies in Silicon Valley.
(c) Apple Campus 2 net new sq. ft. are treated as new demand since outside scope of
ABAG projections.
(d) Recommended net new allocations assume that the Apple Inc. retains all of the
space that it currently occupies after Apple Campus 2 is built and that the City should
have enough office square footage Inc. or another large company.in the allocations
balance to accommodate a new corporate campus for Apple
GENERAL PLAN AMENDMENT – MARKET STUDY
85
Retail Demand
Building on the leakage analysis for Cupertino, the following provides an estimate of sales that
could be recaptured in the City if additional stores, matching demand by store type, were
developed. Due to the balanced overall Regional Trade Area, some of the new sales needed to
support new retail development would need to be retained locally, instead of occurring
elsewhere in the Trade Area. Since this process depends on shifting spending patterns and
providing store types targeted to local demographics, the estimate here is provided in a range
of “low” and “high.” The “low” estimate assumes modest additional recapture of leaking sales,
while the “high” assumes a shift in spending patterns with well-located and well-merchandised
new store types.
Capture from Existing Residents and Workers
As shown Table 35, the range of supportable square footage of new retail space resulting from
capture of current sales leakages of existing resident and worker expenditures is estimated at
approximately 157,000 to 316,000 square feet.21
Table 35: Support from Existing Residents and Workers for Additional Retail Space
Low Estimate
AxB=C ÷ D=E
Annual% AdditionalPotentialSales perSupportable
Leakage ofCapture in Sales CaptureSquareNew Sq. Ft.
Major Retail Category Expenditures (a)Cupertino (b)in CupertinoFoot (c)Cupertino (d)
Motor Vehicle and Parts Dealers $130,400,000 0%$0$0 -
Furniture and Home Furnishings Stores $6,800,000 10%$680,000$350 2,000
Electronics and Appliance Stores $39,100,000 20%$7,820,000$350 22,000
Bldg. Matrl. and Garden Equip. and Supplies$50,400,000 30%$15,120,000$250 60,000
Food and Beverage Stores $0 0%$0$0 0
Health and Personal Care Stores $10,400,000 20%$2,080,000$500 4,000
Gasoline Stations $1,900,000 0%$0$500 -
Clothing and Clothing Accessories Stores$47,100,000 30%$14,130,000$350 40,000
Sporting Goods, Hobby, Book, & Music Stor $9,000,000 20%$1,800,000$350 5,000
General Merchandise Stores $0 0%$0$0 0
Miscellaneous Store Retailers $24,400,000 25%$6,100,000$350 17,000
Food Services and Drinking Places $23,600,000 10%$2,360,000 $350 7,000
Total Retail$343,100,000$50,090,000157,000
21 Zero capture is assumed in the motor vehicle sector, since it is unlikely that Cupertino will have sites available to
create the critical mass necessary to support automotive retail that could compete with the nearby auto row on
Stevens Creek and other regional auto dealers. No capture rate is assumed for sectors where there is currently no
estimated leakage of retail sales.
GENERAL PLAN AMENDMENT – MARKET STUDY
86
High Estimate
AxB=C ÷ D=E
Annual% AdditionalPotentialSales perSupportable
Leakage ofCapture in Sales CaptureSquareNew Sq. Ft.
Potential New Store Types Expenditures (a)Cupertino (b)in CupertinoFoot (c)Cupertino (d)
Motor Vehicle and Parts Dealers $130,400,000 0%$0$0 -
Furniture and Home Furnishings Stores $6,800,000 20%$1,360,000$350 4,000
Electronics and Appliance Stores $39,100,000 50%$19,550,000$350 56,000
Bldg. Matrl. and Garden Equip. and Supplies$50,400,000 50%$25,200,000$250 101,000
Food and Beverage Stores $0 0%$0$0 0
Health and Personal Care Stores $10,400,000 50%$5,200,000$500 10,000
Gasoline Stations $1,900,000 0%$0$500 -
Clothing and Clothing Accessories Stores$47,100,000 60%$28,260,000$350 81,000
Sporting Goods, Hobby, Book, & Music Stor $9,000,000 60%$5,400,000$350 15,000
General Merchandise Stores $0 0%$0$0 0
Miscellaneous Store Retailers $24,400,000 60%$14,640,000$350 42,000
Food Services and Drinking Places $23,600,000 10%$2,360,000 $350 7,000
Total Retail$343,100,000$101,970,000316,000
(a) From Table 14.
(b) Capture of resident potential expenditures assumes appropriates sites for each retail type will be made available in Cupertino.
Rounded to nearest hundred thousand.
(c) Sales per square foot based on consultant experience derived from a variety of sources, including corporate 10-K reports.
(d) Rounded to nearest thousand.
Sources: BAE 2013, based on data from corporate SEC filings, Urban Land Institute/International Council of Shopping Centers, Hinterliter
de Lamas, and other sources as noted in supporting tables and appendices.
Capture from New Residents and Workers
In addition to the potential to recapture of current resident expenditures at retail outlets in the
city, population and employment growth in Cupertino should also support additional retail
development. The supportable square footage of new retail space resulting from capture of
expenditures from new residents and workers through 2035 is estimated at approximately
177,000 to 205,000 square feet (see Table 36). This estimate uses the same capture rates as for
existing residents and workers as shown above in Table 35, and assuming a constant rate of
growth in population and employment, is equivalent to slightly more than 8,000 square feet per
year from 2014 through 2035.
Capture from Outside City of Cupertino
While retail expenditures from City residents are greater than actual expenditures within the
city, this is “net” leakage (in most major retail categories); in reality, Cupertino is capturing sales
from non-residents at the same time Cupertino residents are shopping elsewhere. For instance,
the residential neighborhoods closest to Cupertino Village and its Ranch 99 market are in
Sunnyvale. As indicated by Cupertino’s injections of sales for general merchandise stores,
Vallco’s anchor stores attract customers from outside Cupertino (and Cupertino residents
undoubtedly frequent Valley Fair and Santana Row).
Cupertino’s ability to increase retail attraction to non-residents will depend largely on the future
development of new region-serving retail as well as upgrades to Vallco and its environs,
constrained by the continued competitiveness of other region serving centers in the Retail
Trade Area and beyond. Currently, Valley Fair, Santana Row, the cluster of retail around the
Westgate Shopping Center, and other centers provide a strong attraction to residents of
GENERAL PLAN AMENDMENT – MARKET STUDY
87
Cupertino and surrounding communities. For the purposes of the analysis here, no additional
net capture of non-resident retail expenditures is assumed.
GENERAL PLAN AMENDMENT – MARKET STUDY
88
Table 36: Additional Retail Support from Population and Employment Growth, 2014-2035
Low Estimate
ABCDEFGHIJKL
(a)(b)(c)(d)(e)(f)(g)(h)(i)(j)(k)(l)
Baseline Per CapitaTotal Additional Annual AdditionalAdditionalAdditionalTotal Supportable
Annual ExpendituresRetail Potential Sales in $0002013SalesNewSalesPotentialSales perRetail
EstimatedEstimated EstimatedCaptureCaptureCapturein $000NewSquareSquare Feet
ResidentWorkerResidentsWorkers Total PotentialRateinoffrom NewSalesFootin
Store Category ExpendituresExpenditures Expenditures $000LeakageCaptureCapture Cupertino
Motor Vehicle and Parts Dealers $2,324 $0$24,150$0$24,150na $00%$0$0$0 na
Furniture and Home Furnishings Stores $353 $0$3,666$0$3,66668%$2,48010%$119$2,599$350 7,000
Electronics and Appliance Stores $816$446$8,482$802$9,28427%$2,47520%$1,362$3,837$35011,000
Bldg. Matrl. and Garden Equip. and Supplies$1,068 $0$11,095$0$11,09521%$2,30330%$2,638$4,941$25020,000
Food and Beverage Stores $2,480$1,079$25,775$1,937$27,712104%$27,712 0%$0$27,712$0 na
Health and Personal Care Stores $687$380$7,137$682$7,81977%$6,01220%$361$6,373$50013,000
Gasoline Stations $918 $0$9,545$0$9,54597%$9,212 0%$0$9,212$50018,000
Clothing and Clothing Accessories Stores $1,372$579$14,255$1,039$15,29446%$7,08330%$2,463$9,547$35027,000
Sporting Goods, Hobby, Book, & Music Stores $393$174$4,086$313$4,39964%$2,83420%$313$3,147$350 9,000
General Merchandise Stores $1,772$1,633$18,419$2,934$21,352104%$21,352 0%$0$21,352$0 na
Miscellaneous Store Retailers $347$558$3,604$1,002$4,6058%$35425%$1,063$1,417$350 4,000
Food Services and Drinking Places $2,410$1,442$25,048$2,591$27,63985%$23,52710%$411$23,938$35068,000
Total $14,939$6,292$155,261$11,300$166,560 $105,345 $8,730$114,075 177,000
High Estimate
ABCDEFGHIJKL
(a)(b)(c)(d)(e)(f)(g)(h)(i)(j)(k)(l)
Baseline Per CapitaTotal Additional Annual AdditionalAdditionalAdditionalTotal Supportable
Annual ExpendituresRetail Potential Sales in $0002013SalesNewSalesPotentialSales perRetail
EstimatedEstimated EstimatedCaptureCaptureCapturein $000NewSquareSquare Feet
ResidentWorkerResidentsWorkers Total PotentialRateinoffrom NewSalesFootin
Store Category ExpendituresExpenditures Expenditures $000LeakageCaptureCapture Cupertino
Motor Vehicle and Parts Dealers $2,324 $0$24,150$0$24,150na $00%$0$0$0 na
Furniture and Home Furnishings Stores $353 $0$3,666$0$3,66668%$2,48020%$237$2,717$350 8,000
Electronics and Appliance Stores $816$446$8,482$802$9,28427%$2,47550%$3,404$5,880$35017,000
Bldg. Matrl. and Garden Equip. and Supplies$1,068 $0$11,095$0$11,09521%$2,30350%$4,396$6,699$25027,000
Food and Beverage Stores $2,480$1,079$25,775$1,937$27,712104%$27,712 0%$0$27,712$0 na
Health and Personal Care Stores $687$380$7,137$682$7,81977%$6,01250%$904$6,915$50014,000
Gasoline Stations $918 $0$9,545$0$9,54597%$9,212 0%$0$9,212$50018,000
Clothing and Clothing Accessories Stores $1,372$579$14,255$1,039$15,29446%$7,08360%$4,926$12,010$35034,000
Sporting Goods, Hobby, Book, & Music Stores $393$174$4,086$313$4,39964%$2,83460%$939$3,773$35011,000
General Merchandise Stores$1,772$1,633$18,419$2,934$21,352104%$21,352 0%$0$21,352$0na
Miscellaneous Store Retailers$347$558$3,604$1,002$4,6058%$35460%$2,551$2,905$3508,000
Food Services and Drinking Places$2,410$1,442$25,048$2,591$27,63985%$23,52710%$411$23,938$35068,000
Total$14,939$6,292$155,261$11,300$166,560$105,345$17,769$123,114205,000
All sales, expenditures, and leakages are expressed in 2013 dollar equivalents. Total additional potential sales are in $000.
(a) From Appendix C.
(b) From Appendix E.
(c) Column A times estimated population increase in Cupertino, 2013-2040. Population increased derived from using an average annual compound
rate to trend out population over the time period. Population in 2010 and 2040 derived from household estimates per times DOF estimate of
average household size in 2013.
Increase in Resident Population, 2013-2040 12,993
(d) Column B times estimated increase in net worker inflows in Cupertino 2013-2040. Net worker inflow derived using an average annual compound
rate to trend out worker growth over the time period. Number of workers in 2010 and 2040 derived from worker estimates per times the 2011
percent inflow of workers per LEHD as noted in Appendix F.
Increase in Net Worker Inflows, 2013-2040 2,252
(e) E = C + D
(f) F = (100%-leakage), where "leakage" is the leakage/injection percentage column from Table 14. Since leakage is a negative number while
injection is positive, this is representative of the total capture of potential sales, and thus also of categories that show captures greater than 100%.
(g) G = minimum of (E x F) or E. This caps the capture at 100% for sectors with no leakage of sales. Consistent with the lack of suitable sites for motor
vehicle retail in Cupertino, no capture is assumed for the motor vehicle sector.
(h) Assumes same additional capture of leakage as for existing residents and workers.
(i) I = H x (E - G)
(j) J = G + I
(k) From Table 35.
(l) L = J x K
Sources: BAE 2013, based on data from CA Department of Industrial Relations; U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics; U.S. Census of Retail Trade, 2007;
2010 Zip Code and County Business Patterns; CA Dept. of Finance; Nielsen SiteReports; U.S. Census Bureau Longitudinal Employer-Household
Dynamics (LEHD); Corporate SEC filings, Urban Land Institute/International Council of Shopping Centers (ULI/ICSC); Hinterliter de Lamas; and other
sources as noted in supporting tables and appendices.
GENERAL PLAN AMENDMENT – MARKET STUDY
89
Demand for Additional Retail
The retail analysis indicates that demand for retail from existing and new residents and workers
in Cupertino will total approximately 227,800 to 398,000 square feet by 2020 and 334,000 to
521,000 square feet by 2035. Projects that are entitled or currently under construction in
Cupertino include approximately 353,000 square feet of retail space. Assuming that fifty
percent of these projects are built, the potential remaining demand through 2020 would be
51,800 to 222,000 square feet and by 2035 would be approximately 158,000 square feet under
the low scenario and 345,000 square feet under the high scenario, depending on the quality of
new and redeveloped stores and their ability to recapture sales currently leaking to stores
elsewhere in the Regional Trade Area. While a portion of this new demand can be meet with
new retail facilities in all four corridors, the primary opportunity for capturing existing and new
retail demand would be in the Vallco Shopping district. However, the Vallco shopping center
will need to be reformulated or redeveloped in order to be attractive to both retailers and
shoppers (see detailed discussion of these issues in the Retail Strategy).
Table 37: Projected Retail Demand and Allocation Balances, Cupertino, 2020 & 2035
LowHighLowHigh
Sq. Ft.Sq. Ft.Sq. Ft.Sq. Ft.
Demand from Existing Residents and Workers157,000316,000157,000316,000
Demand from Residential and Employment Growth70,800 82,000 177,000 205,000
Total Gross Retail Demand 227,800398,000334,000521,000
Less: Entitled Retail Projects 176,000176,000176,000176,000
Net New Retail Demand 51,800222,000158,000345,000
Note: 2035 estimate is cumulative and includes estimates for 2020.
Source: BAE, 2013.
2020 Estimate 2035 Estimate
GENERAL PLAN AMENDMENT – MARKET STUDY
90
Hotel Demand
As discussed above, the hotel market in Cupertino is relatively robust, as indicated by strong
occupancy rates at the city’s five existing hotels. Demand for hotel rooms is particularly strong
during the week due to high levels of business travel to Cupertino. There has been recent
interest in additional hotel development in Cupertino with the opening of the Aloft hotel in
early 2013, and approximately 300 new hotel rooms in the city’s development pipeline.
Furthermore, some property owners have expressed interest in developing additional hotel
rooms that are not yet in the project pipeline.
The potential range of future hotel room demand in Cupertino was estimated based on the
city’s current share of hotel rooms in Santa Clara County and projected employment and
household growth. Table 38 shows the range of projected demand for hotel rooms in Santa
Clara County and Cupertino in 2020 and 2035. As shown, business travel is estimated to account
for 75 percent of hotel room demand in Santa Clara County, and leisure travel is estimated to
account for 25 percent of hotel room demand. Using this breakdown, the number of existing
hotel rooms in Santa Clara County, and current employment and household estimates for the
county, the table shows that current demand allows for 0.021 hotel rooms per employee and
0.011 hotel rooms per household.
The One Bay Area Plan anticipates an annual average growth rate of 7,140 households and
10,108 jobs in Santa Clara County between 2010 and 2040. Based on this future growth,
lodging demand in the county could support an approximately 2,000 new hotel rooms by 2020
and over 6,000 new hotel rooms by 2035. Again, note that these are cumulative estimates (e.g.,
the estimated for 2020 in contained in the total for 2035).
As shown in Table 38, hotel rooms in Cupertino currently account for approximately three
percent of hotel rooms in Santa Clara County. The low end of the demand estimate assumes
that the City continues to capture a similar share of hotel room demand through 2035. A high
estimate is also presented that takes into consideration the catalyst effect of the Apple Campus
2 and new professional football stadium in Santa Clara on Cupertino’s lodging market, while the
high end of the demand estimate assumes that the City will capture ten percent of new hotel
room demand through 2035.
Using the low capture rate, estimated net hotel room demand in Cupertino is negative through
2020 after subtracting fifty percent of the 302 hotel rooms currently in the city’s development
pipeline (e.g., 151 rooms), which means that the number of hotel rooms in the project pipeline
exceed the market demand for new lodging. By 2035, there is demand for 40 additional rooms.
The high demand estimate uses the higher capture rate. Under the high demand scenario,
there is positive demand by 2020 for up to 51 rooms and by 2035 demand for 485 additional
hotel rooms. This high demand estimate would suggest demand for three to four additional
standard hotel properties (e.g., 125 to 150 rooms) over the long term. However, the hotel
GENERAL PLAN AMENDMENT – MARKET STUDY
91
demand estimate needs an adjustment when applied to setting new allocations. Multiple hotel
sites need to be planned for to give the City flexibility in locating new hotel facilities and to
account for the riskiness of new hotel development (designated sites often remain undeveloped
for extended periods of time to due to credit market and site ownership characteristics.
Allocating 1,000 hotel rooms under a high demand scenario would permit such flexibility since
even if half the rooms ultimately were not built, long term demand shown in Table 38 would be
likely met.
Table 38: Projected Lodging Demand, Cupertino
Projected Growth, Santa Clara County 20202035
Employment Growth, Santa Clara County (2013 Base Yr)70,758222,383
Household Growth, Santa Clara County (2013 Base Yr)49,978157,073
Growth in Hotel Room Demand from Business Travel 1,4864,671
Growth in Hotel Room Demand from Leisure Travel 539 1,693
Total Growth in Hotel Room Demand 2,0256,364
Projected Hotel Room Demand, Cupertino 20202035
Low Estimate (a)
Gross New Hotel Room Demand 61191
Less: Planned and Proposed Hotel Rooms (151)(151)
Net New Hotel Room Demand - Low (90)40
High Estimate (b)
Gross New Hotel Room Demand 202636
Less: Planned and Proposed Hotel Rooms (151)(151)
Net New Hotel Room Demand - High 51485
Assumptions
Total Hotel Rooms - Cupertino 785
Total Hotel Rooms - Santa Clara County 26,044
Cupertino Share of Santa Clara County Hotel Rooms 3.0%
Cupertino Potential Share of Santa Clara County Hotel Rooms (c)10.0%
Total Employees in Santa Clara County 929,952
Percent of Hotel Stays from Business Travel 75%
Hotel Rooms per Employee 0.021
Projected Annual Average Employment Growth, 2010-2040 10,108
Total Households in Santa Clara County 604,204
Percent of Hotel Stays from Leisure Travel 25%
Hotel Rooms per Household 0.011
Projected Annual Average Household Growth, 2010-2040 7,140
Notes:
(a) The low estimate of projected hotel room demand assumes that Cupertino continues to
capture the same portion of the County's hotel room demand, or approximately three percent of
countywide demand, and that all of the hotel rooms that are currently entitled are built.
(b) The high estimate of projected hotel room demand assumes that, over the medium to long
term, Cupertino captures a slightly higher portion of countywide hotel room demand than the City
currently captures, and that half of the hotel rooms that are currenly entitled are built.
(c) Cupertino's potential share of Santa Clara County hotel rooms assumes that the City will
capture a slightly higher proportion of countywide hotel room demand than the City currently
captures.
Sources: US Census, 2010; ACS, 2007-2011; STR, 2013; BAE, 2013.
GENERAL PLAN AMENDMENT – MARKET STUDY
92
Summary of Demand Estimates
Based on the above analysis, the following table summarizes the market demand findings of this
report. These findings will be considered during the planning process and inform the setting of
new allocations for the indicated uses.
Table 40: Summary of Demand Estimates
Office
LowHighLowHighLowHigh
Through 2020
Demand Through 2020 (Units/Sq.Ft.)8771,535303,061227,800 398,000 61202
Demand Adjustments (a)- - 2,750,000 - - - -
Less: Entitled Projects (404)(404)147,050176,000 176,000 (151)(151)
Net Demand 4731,9392,906,01151,800 222,000(90)51
Through 2035
Demand Through 2035 (Units/Sq.Ft.)2,7574,824952,477 334,000521,000 191636
Demand Adjustments - - 2,750,000(a)- - - 500 (b)
Less: Entitled Projects 404404147,050176,000176,000(151)(151)
Net Demand 2,3534,4203,555,428158,000345,00040985
Notes:
(a) For Office Apple Campus 2 and 1.5 million sq.ft. added; see text for description.
(b) Adjustment for flexibility in meeting long-term demand under high scenario; see text for description.
Sources: City of Cupertino; BAE 2013.
Residential HotelRetail
93
APPENDIX A: ZIP CODES IN THE RETAIL TRADE AREA
Table A-1: Zip Codes in the Retail Trade Area
Zip Code City
94022 Los Altos
94023 Los Altos
94024 Los Altos
94035 Mountain View
94039 Mountain View
94040 Mountain View
94041 Mountain View
94043 Mountain View
94085 Sunnyvale
94086 Sunnyvale
94087 Sunnyvale
94088 Sunnyvale
94089 Sunnyvale
95008 Campbell
95009 Campbell
95014 Cupertino
95015 Cupertino
95050 Santa Clara
95051 Santa Clara
95052 Santa Clara
95053 Santa Clara
95055 Santa Clara
95070 Saratoga
95071 Saratoga
95117 San Jose
95129 San Jose
95130 San Jose
Note: Some Zip Codes represent single-organization sites or Post Office Boxes,
but have establishments listed in Zip Code Business Patterns.
94
APPENDIX B: RETAIL SALES TRENDS
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C
e
n
s
u
s
;
S
t
a
t
e
D
e
p
t
.
o
f
F
i
n
a
n
c
e
;
S
t
a
t
e
B
o
a
r
d
o
f
E
q
u
a
l
i
z
a
t
i
o
n
;
C
A
D
e
p
t
.
o
f
I
n
d
u
s
t
r
i
a
l
R
e
l
a
t
i
o
n
s
;
U
.
S
.
Bu
r
e
a
u
o
f
L
a
b
o
r
S
t
a
t
i
s
t
i
c
s
;
B
A
E
,
2
0
1
3
.
101
APPENDIX C: LEAKAGE ANALYSIS DETAIL
10
2
Ta
b
l
e
C
-
1
:
L
e
a
k
a
g
e
An
a
l
y
s
i
s
D
e
t
a
i
l
Ba
s
e
l
i
n
e
P
e
r
C
a
p
i
t
a
20
1
3
T
o
ta
l
A
n
n
u
a
l
2013Injection/
Re
t
a
i
l
S
a
l
e
s
/
E
x
p
e
n
d
i
t
u
r
e
s
Re
t
a
i
l S
a
les
a
n
d S
a
les
P
o
t
e
n
t
i
a
l i
n
$00
0
(c)
TotalLeakage
Es
t
i
m
a
t
e
d
E
s
t
i
m
a
t
e
d
E
s
t
i
m
a
t
e
d
E
s
t
i
m
a
t
e
d
E
s
t
i
m
a
t
e
d
E
s
t
i
m
a
t
e
d
I
n
j
e
c
t
i
o
n
/
a
s
%
o
f
Sa
l
e
s
R
e
s
i
d
e
n
t
S
a
l
e
s
R
e
s
i
d
e
n
t
W
o
r
k
e
r
T
o
t
a
l
P
o
t
e
n
t
i
a
l
(L
e
a
k
a
g
e
)
Potential
St
o
r
e
C
a
t
e
g
o
r
y
in
Are
a
(a)
Exp
e
n
dit
u
r
e
s
(b
)
in
A
r
e
a
E
x
p
e
n
d
i
t
u
r
e
s
E
x
p
e
n
d
i
t
ur
e
s
E
x
p
e
n
d
i
t
u
r
e
s
$
0
0
0
S
a
l
e
s
Mo
t
o
r
V
e
h
i
c
l
e
a
n
d
P
a
r
t
s
D
e
a
l
e
r
s
$
1
3
6
$
2
,
3
2
4
$
8
,
1
3
0
$
1
3
8
,
5
3
5
$
0
$
1
3
8
,
5
3
5
($
1
3
0
,
4
0
5
)
-
9
4
%
Fu
r
n
i
t
u
r
e
a
n
d
H
o
m
e
F
u
r
n
i
s
h
i
n
g
s
S
t
o
r
e
s
$
2
3
9
$
3
5
3
$
1
4
,
2
2
8
$
2
1
,
0
3
1
$
0
$
2
1
,
0
3
1
($6,803)-32%
El
e
c
t
r
o
n
i
c
s
a
n
d
A
p
p
l
i
a
n
c
e
S
t
o
r
e
s
$
2
3
9
$
8
1
6
$
1
4
,
2
2
8
$
4
8
,
6
5
7
$
4
,
7
0
0
$
5
3
,
3
5
7
($39,130)-73%
Bl
d
g
.
M
a
t
r
l
.
a
n
d
G
a
r
d
e
n
E
q
u
i
p
.
a
n
d
S
u
p
p
l
i
e
s
$
2
2
2
$
1
,
0
6
8
$
1
3
,
2
1
2
$
6
3
,
6
4
8
$
0
$
6
3
,
6
4
8
($50,436)-79%
Fo
o
d
a
n
d
B
e
v
e
r
a
g
e
S
t
o
r
e
s
$
2
,
7
7
8
$
2
,
4
8
0
$
1
6
5
,
6
5
3
$
1
4
7
,
8
5
9
$
1
1
,
3
0
0
$
1
5
9
,
1
5
9
$
6
,
4
9
4
4
%
He
a
l
t
h
a
n
d
P
e
r
s
o
n
a
l
C
a
r
e
S
t
o
r
e
s
$
5
8
0
$
6
8
7
$
3
4
,
5
5
3
$
4
0
,
9
4
1
$
4
,
0
0
0
$
4
4
,
9
4
1
($10,388)-23%
Ga
s
o
l
i
n
e
S
t
a
t
i
o
n
s
$
8
8
6
$
9
1
8
$
5
2
,
8
4
7
$
5
4
,
7
5
6
$
0
$
5
4
,
7
5
6
($1,909)-3%
Cl
o
t
h
i
n
g
a
n
d
C
l
o
t
h
i
n
g
A
c
c
e
s
s
o
r
i
e
s
S
t
o
r
e
s
$
6
8
2
$
1
,
3
7
2
$
4
0
,
6
5
1
$
8
1
,
7
7
2
$
6
,
0
0
0
$
8
7
,
7
7
2
($47,121)-54%
Sp
o
r
t
i
n
g
G
o
o
d
s
,
H
o
b
b
y
,
B
o
o
k
,
a
n
d
M
u
s
i
c
S
t
o
r
e
s
$
2
7
3
$
3
9
3
$
1
6
,
2
6
0
$
2
3
,
4
4
0
$
1
,
8
0
0
$
2
5
,
2
4
0
($8,980)-36%
Ge
n
e
r
a
l
M
e
r
c
h
a
n
d
i
s
e
S
t
o
r
e
s
$
2
,
1
4
8
$
1
,
7
7
2
$
1
2
8
,
0
5
1
$
1
0
5
,
6
6
1
$
1
7
,
1
0
0
$
1
2
2
,
7
6
1
$
5
,
2
9
0
4
%
Mi
s
c
e
l
l
a
n
e
o
u
s
S
t
o
r
e
R
e
t
a
i
l
e
r
s
$
3
4
$
3
4
7
$
2
,
0
3
3
$
2
0
,
6
7
2
$
5
,
8
0
0
$
2
6
,
4
7
2
($24,439)-92%
Fo
o
d
S
e
r
v
i
c
e
s
a
n
d
D
r
i
n
k
i
n
g
P
l
a
c
e
s
$
2
,
2
6
7
$
2
,
4
1
0
$
1
3
5
,
1
6
5
$
1
4
3
,
6
9
0
$
1
5
,
1
0
0
$
1
5
8
,
7
9
0
($23,625)-15%
T
o
t
a
l
$
1
0
,
4
8
3
$
1
4
,
9
3
9
$
6
2
5
,
0
1
2
$
8
9
0
,
6
6
1
$
6
5
,
8
0
0
$
9
5
6
,
4
6
1
($
3
3
1
,
4
5
0
)
-
3
5
%
Re
t
a
i
l
T
r
a
d
e
A
r
e
a
Ba
s
e
l
i
n
e
P
e
r
C
a
p
i
t
a
20
1
3
T
o
ta
l
A
n
n
u
a
l
2013Injection/
Re
t
a
i
l
S
a
l
e
s
/
E
x
p
e
n
d
i
t
u
r
e
s
Re
t
a
i
l S
a
les
a
n
d S
a
les
P
o
t
e
n
t
i
a
l i
n
$00
0
(c)
TotalLeakage
Es
t
i
m
a
t
e
d
E
s
t
i
m
a
t
e
d
E
s
t
i
m
a
t
e
d
E
s
t
i
m
a
t
e
d
E
s
t
i
m
a
t
e
d
E
s
t
i
m
a
t
e
d
I
n
j
e
c
t
i
o
n
/
a
s
%
o
f
Sa
l
e
s
R
e
s
i
d
e
n
t
S
a
l
e
s
R
e
s
i
d
e
n
t
W
o
r
k
e
r
T
o
t
a
l
P
o
t
e
n
t
i
a
l
(L
e
a
k
a
g
e
)
Potential
St
o
r
e
C
a
t
e
g
o
r
y
in
A
r
e
a
(a)
Ex
p
e
n
dit
u
r
e
s
(b
)
in
A
r
e
a
E
x
p
e
n
d
i
t
u
r
e
s
E
x
p
e
n
d
i
t
ur
e
s
E
x
p
e
n
d
i
t
u
r
e
s
$
0
0
0
S
a
l
e
s
Mo
t
o
r
V
e
h
i
c
l
e
a
n
d
P
a
r
t
s
D
e
a
l
e
r
s
$
3
,
4
2
4
$2
,
4
5
7
$
2
,
0
0
9
,
7
9
2
$
1
,
4
4
2
,
28
5
$
0
$
1
,
4
4
2
,
2
8
5
$
5
6
7
,
5
0
7
3
9
%
Fu
r
n
i
t
u
r
e
a
n
d
H
o
m
e
F
u
r
n
i
s
h
i
n
g
s
S
t
o
r
e
s
$
3
1
3
$
3
3
2
$
1
8
3
,
8
2
2
$
1
9
4
,
9
0
5
$
0
$
1
9
4
,
9
0
5
($11,083)-6%
El
e
c
t
r
o
n
i
c
s
a
n
d
A
p
p
l
i
a
n
c
e
S
t
o
r
e
s
$
8
2
5
$
7
6
4
$
4
8
4
,
0
6
6
$
4
4
8
,
1
7
0
($
5
,
6
0
0
)
$4
4
2
,
5
7
0
$
4
1
,
4
9
5
9
%
Bl
d
g
.
M
a
t
r
l
.
a
n
d
G
a
r
d
e
n
E
q
u
i
p
.
a
n
d
S
u
p
p
l
i
e
s
$
9
9
5
$
1
,
0
0
9
$
5
8
4
,
1
4
7
$
5
9
2
,
2
0
8
$
0
$
5
9
2
,
2
0
8
($8,061)-1%
Fo
o
d
a
n
d
B
e
v
e
r
a
g
e
S
t
o
r
e
s
$
2
,
6
2
0
$
2
,
4
7
1
$
1
,
5
3
7
,
9
8
1
$
1
,
4
5
0
,
1
8
8
($
1
3
,
4
0
0
)
$1
,
4
3
6
,
7
8
8
$
1
0
1
,
1
9
3
7
%
He
a
l
t
h
a
n
d
P
e
r
s
o
n
a
l
C
a
r
e
S
t
o
r
e
s
$
7
1
7
$
6
9
1
$
4
2
0
,
7
4
9
$
4
0
5
,
5
1
4
($
4
,
7
0
0
)
$4
0
0
,
8
1
4
$
1
9
,
9
3
5
5
%
Ga
s
o
l
i
n
e
S
t
a
t
i
o
n
s
$
1
,
1
6
7
$
9
4
1
$
6
8
5
,
2
4
9
$
5
5
2
,
5
5
6
$
0
$
5
5
2
,
5
5
6
$
1
3
2
,
6
9
3
2
4
%
Cl
o
t
h
i
n
g
a
n
d
C
l
o
t
h
i
n
g
A
c
c
e
s
s
o
r
i
e
s
S
t
o
r
e
s
$
1
,
0
0
2
$
1
,
2
8
8
$
5
8
8
,
2
3
2
$
7
5
6
,
1
0
3
($
7
,
2
0
0
)
$7
4
8
,
9
0
3
($
1
6
0
,
6
7
1
)
-
2
1
%
Sp
o
r
t
i
n
g
G
o
o
d
s
,
H
o
b
b
y
,
B
o
o
k
,
a
n
d
M
u
s
i
c
S
t
o
r
e
s
$
5
4
6
$
3
6
6
$
3
2
0
,
6
6
8
$
2
1
5
,
0
8
3
($
2
,
2
0
0
)
$2
1
2
,
8
8
3
$
1
0
7
,
7
8
5
5
1
%
Ge
n
e
r
a
l
M
e
r
c
h
a
n
d
i
s
e
S
t
o
r
e
s
$
1
,
5
1
4
$
1
,
7
1
5
$
8
8
8
,
4
7
5
$
1
,
0
0
6
,
7
8
0
($
2
0
,
3
0
0
)
$9
8
6
,
4
8
0
($98,005)-10%
Mi
s
c
e
l
l
a
n
e
o
u
s
S
t
o
r
e
R
e
t
a
i
l
e
r
s
$
4
1
2
$
3
4
3
$
2
4
2
,
0
3
3
$
2
0
1
,
1
9
6
($
6
,
9
0
0
)
$1
9
4
,
2
9
6
$
4
7
,
7
3
7
2
5
%
Fo
o
d
S
e
r
v
i
c
e
s
a
n
d
D
r
i
n
k
i
n
g
P
l
a
c
e
s
$
2
,
2
7
1
$
2
,
3
4
3
$
1
,
3
3
2
,
7
1
3
$
1
,
3
7
5
,
3
4
0
($
1
8
,
0
0
0
)
$1
,
3
5
7
,
3
4
0
($24,628)-2%
T
o
t
a
l
$
1
5
,
8
0
7
$
1
4
,
7
2
1
$
9
,
2
7
7
,
9
2
6
$
8
,
6
4
0
,
3
2
9
($
7
8
,
3
0
0
)
$8
,
5
6
2
,
0
2
9
$
7
1
5
,
8
9
7
8
%
Al
l
s
a
l
e
s
a
n
d
l
e
a
k
a
g
e
s
a
r
e
i
n
2
0
1
3
d
o
l
l
a
r
s
.
(a
)
F
r
o
m
T
a
b
l
e
1
3
.
(b
)
E
s
t
i
m
a
t
e
d
e
x
p
e
n
d
i
t
u
r
e
s
p
e
r
c
a
p
i
t
a
a
r
e
d
e
r
i
v
e
d
f
r
o
m
N
i
e
l
s
e
n
RM
P
O
p
p
o
r
t
u
n
i
t
y
G
a
p
R
e
p
o
r
t
,
a
d
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p
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a
t
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c
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p
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f
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l
a
t
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o
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s
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.
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u
r
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a
u
of
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b
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t
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t
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.
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o
f
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l
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r
a
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,
2
0
0
7
;
2
0
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1
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i
p
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o
de
a
n
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u
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a
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s
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k
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t
P
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c
e
;
B
A
E
,
2
0
1
3
.
103
APPENDIX D: NOTES ON METHODOLOGY FOR RETAIL
SALES AND LEAKAGE ESTIMATES
BAE has developed point-in-time estimates of retail sales by six-digit NAICS22 category,
applying sales per employee data by NAICS from the 2007 Census of Retail Trade to generate
estimates of total retail sales by category for 2011 based on Zip Code Business Patterns, the
most recent data available at the time of analysis. These estimates have the advantage over
estimates based on taxable data in that all retail sales are included, so no adjustment factors are
necessary to get from SBOE data to total retail sales. It should be noted that these estimates
should be considered as approximate, since the exact employment numbers for each store type
are not available; instead, the published data group stores into an employment class size.23
Additional comparisons were made with SBOE data to determine whether it was necessary to
reconcile major discrepancies between the Zip Code-derived estimates and the published
taxable sales data. It was determined that no adjustments were required; while the estimates
from the Zip Code data vary from SBOE figures, these differences are due in large part to the
inclusion of nontaxable sales.
22 The North American Industrial Classification System (NAICS) is a federally-directed system for classifying
establishments by industry.
23 For example, one store size category in the Zip Code Business Patterns ranges from 25 to 49 employees; estimates
are based on a central point in this range, since the exact number of employees is unknown.
104
APPENDIX E: WORKER SPENDING CLOSE TO PLACE OF
WORK
10
5
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b
l
e
E
-
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a
n
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g
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.
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f
l
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f
a
c
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r
=
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.
0
4
1
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So
u
r
c
e
s
:
I
n
t
e
r
n
a
t
i
o
n
a
l
C
o
u
n
c
i
l
o
f
S
h
o
p
p
i
n
g
C
e
n
t
e
r
s
(
I
C
SC
)
;
U
.
S
.
B
u
r
e
a
u
o
f
L
a
b
o
r
S
t
a
t
i
s
t
i
c
s
;
B
A
E
,
2
0
1
3
.
106
APPENDIX F: NET RETAIL EXPENDITURES NEAR WORK FOR
CUPERTINO WORKERS
Table F-1: Net Retail Expenditures Near Work for Cupertino Workers
Annual Potential Worker
Expenditures Near Work (a)
Major Retail Category Cupertino RTA
Motor Vehicle and Parts Dealers $0 $0
Furniture and Home Furnishings Stores $0 $0
Electronics and Appliance Stores $4,700,000 ($5,600,000)
Bldg. Matrl. and Garden Equip. and Supplies $0 $0
Food and Beverage Stores $11,300,000 ($13,400,000)
Health and Personal Care Stores $4,000,000 ($4,700,000)
Gasoline Stations $0
Clothing and Clothing Accessories Stores $6,000,000 ($7,200,000)
Sporting Goods, Hobby, Book, and Music Stores$1,800,000 ($2,200,000)
General Merchandise Stores $17,100,000 ($20,300,000)
Miscellaneous Store Retailers $5,800,000 ($6,900,000)
Food Services and Drinking Places $15,100,000 ($18,000,000)
Net Potential Worker Retail Expenditures$65,800,000 ($78,300,000)
Notes:
(a) Estimate of worker potential expenditures based on Office-Worker Retail Spending in the Digital Age (ICSC,
2012) as shown in Appendix E. Total worker expenditures based on per worker data is multiplied by the estimated
net inflow of workers into Cupertino. Numbers rounded to nearest hundred thousand. Net inflows of workers is
used since worker expenditures for the number of workers up to the number of working residents would already
be accounted for by the expenditures of those working residents in the resident demand analysis.
Net inflow of workers into Cupertino = 10,440
Net inflow of workers into Retail Trade Area = -12,449
Based on U.S. Census Bureau's OnTheMap Application and LEHD Origin-Destination Employment Statistics
(Beginning of Quarter Employment, 2nd Quarter of 2002-2011).
Sources: U.S. Census Bureau Longitudinal Employer-Household Dynamics (LEHD); International Council of
Shopping Centers (ICSC); BAE, 2013.
107
APPENDIX G: CURRENTLY LEASING PROPERTIES
10
8
Ta
b
l
e
G
-
1
:
C
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r
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e
n
t
l
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3
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t
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114
APPENDIX H: PLANNED AND PROPOSED DEVELOPMENT IN
CUPERTINO
115
Table H-1: Planned and Proposed Development, Cupertino, May 2013 (Revised January 2014)
Project
Location Site Size
Developer (acres)Size (sq. ft.)Comments
Under Construction
Apple Cafeteria 0.8824,000sq. ft. new retailCafeteria and underground parking for Apple
20625 Alves Dr.4,000 sq. ft. retail demoemployees.
Apple, Inc.20,000net new retail sq. ft.
Homestead Square 15196,622sq. ft. new retailNew commercial space in an existing shopping
20620/20580/20680 Homestead Rd.95,666 sq. ft. retail democenter. Project includes a Rite-Aid pharmacy
Sobrato Development Co.100,956net new retail sq. ft.with drive through.
Biltmore Adjacency 1380new residential unitsMixed-use development with 80 rental
20030 Stevens Creek Blvd 7,000sq. ft. new retailresidential units and 7,000 sq. ft. of commercial
Prometheus Real Estate Group 21,000sq. ft. retail demospace.
Rose Bowl
19800 Vallco Pkwy 59,827sq. ft. new retailMixed-use development with 204 residential
204new residential unitsrental units, 59,827 sq. ft. of retail space.
Cupertino Village 12.524,455sq. ft. new retailTwo new one-story retail buildings and a
SWC of Wolfe Rd & Homestead Rd two-level parking structure. No building
Kimco Realty permits submitted. Entitlement expires
11/01/2013.
Main Street Cupertino 18.5130,500sq. ft. new retailMixed-use development with retail, office,
N side of Stevens Creek Blvd b/t 180new hotel roomshotel, and rental residential units with a
Finch Ave & Tantau Ave 260,000sq. ft. new office five-level parking garage with two levels of
Ken Rodrigues and Partner, Inc.120new residential unitsunderground parking. No building permit
submitted. Entitlement expires 5/15/2015.
Approved (Construction Not Yet Commenced)
Tantau Retail and Parking Garage 9.410,582sq. ft. new retailNew retail building and one-level parking
10100 N. Tantau Ave garage on an existing office site. No building
Chang Architecture & Planning permits have been issued. Entitlements expire
8/21/2015.
Saich Way Station 15,650sq. ft. new retailApproved by City Council in Feb. 2013. No
NWC of Saich Way &11,640 sq. ft. retail demobuilding permits have been submitted.
Stevens Creek Blvd.4,010net new retail sq. ft.
The Oaks Shopping Center 8.1122new hotel roomsMixed-use development with four-story,
21255-21275 Stevens Creek Blvd 18,731sq. ft. new retail (a)122-room hotel and three-story, 56,194-sq. ft.
Sand Hill Properties, Inc.18,731sq. ft. new office (a)retail/office/ convention center over
2,430sq. ft. retail demounderground podium parking. Demolition of
15,263sq. ft. theater demoexisting theater and retail space. Entitlement
expires 9/02/2014.
1 Results Way 19.8155,000sq. ft. new officeDemolition of five buildings and construction
NWC Bubb Rd and McClellan Rd 139,632 sq. ft. office demoof three new 2-story office buildings and a
Embarcadero Capital Partners, LLC 15,368net new office sq. ft.2-level parking garage. No building permit
submitted. Entitlement expires 7/21/2014.
Apple Campus 2 1753,400,000sq. ft. new officeNew office campus for Apple, Inc. Phase I
N. Wolfe Rd, E. Homested Rd, 2,650,000 sq. ft. office demoincludes 2.82 million sq. ft. of office and
N. Tantau Ave, I-280 750,000net new office sq. ft.amenity space, a 1,000-seat suditorium, a
Apple, Inc.corporate gymnasium, a parking structure and
an onsite energy generation facility. Phase II
includes 600,000 sq. ft. of office and research
facilities. Environmental review in progress.
Continued on following page.
116
Table H-1: Planned and Proposed Development, Cupertino, May 2014 (Revised January 2014;continued)
Project
Location Site Size
Developer (acres)Size (sq. ft.)Comments
Pending Approval
Parkside Trails 918new residential units18 new single family homes on 9 acres. The
E side of Stevens Canyon Rd S of Ricardo Rd project includes dedication of 33.5 acres
Parkside Trails LLC adjacent to the project site as open space.
Summary
Total New Residential Planned and Proposed (units)422
Total Residential Units Proposed for Demolition:0
Net New Planned and Proposed Residential (units)422
Total New Office Planned and Proposed (sq. ft.)3,833,731
Total Office Proposed for Demolition:2,789,632
Net New Planned and Proposed Office (Sq. Ft.)1,044,099
Total New Retail Planned and Proposed (sq. ft.)487,367
Total Retail Proposed for Demolition:134,736
Net New Planned and Proposed Retail (Sq. Ft.)352,631
Total New Lodging Planned and Proposed (# of Rooms)302
Total Lodging Proposed for Demolition:0
Net New Planned and Proposed Lodging (# of Rooms)302
Note:
(a) The Oaks Shopping Center project would include 56,194 square feet of retail/office/convention center space. The square footage of